Cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi yuav tsis yog qhov loj loj rau cov khoom lag luam uas nws ib zaug yog.
Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau nce mus rau qhov ze dua rau hnub Thursday, txawm tias cov tub ua lag luam tau txais qee cov xov xwm txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag tom qab cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas. rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis pom nws thawj lub hlis poob txij li thaum tus kab mob kis thoob plaws ntiaj teb hauv 2020.
Xav tias kev nce nqi yog ib qho teeb meem tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam xyoo dhau los, cov tub ua lag luam yuav xav tias cov khoom lag luam yuav tawm mus.
Hloov chaw, tom qab kev zam dhau los, cov khoom lag luam tau ua tiav hnub Thursday nrog kev nce qib me me, qhov loj ntawm qhov tsawg dua li lwm cov hnub tso tawm CPI tsis ntev los no.
Thaum lub hli CPI poob 0.1% nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, qhov ntsuas txhua xyoo poob rau lub hli thib rau hauv kab mus rau 6.5% los ntawm 7.1%. Qhov ntawd yog qib qis tshaj hauv ntau tshaj ib xyoos thiab nqis los ntawm 40-xyoo siab kawg ntawm 9.1% lub caij ntuj sov dhau los.
Kom tau txais kev nkag siab zoo dua ntawm qhov ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo hauv cov khoom lag luam, txawm tias muaj kev lag luam tseem ceeb, MarketWatch tau sau cov kev xav los ntawm cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam txog qhov tshwm sim.
Tus 'ntxhi tus lej'
Tej zaum qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau txais tos CPI cov ntaub ntawv nrog kev poob siab yog tias cov tub ua lag luam tau tso rau kev nce nqi kom poob qis dua. Qee tus txawm cia siab tias qhov kev poob qis yuav loj txaus los ua rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve rov xav txog kev nce nyiaj ntau dua.
Ua ntej ntawm CPI cov ntaub ntawv rau lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis, cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag tau kwv yees qhov kev ntsuas uas tus nqi yuav poob qis, raws li xyoo dhau los. Thiab raws li tus nqi rau cov khoom xws li tsheb siv thiab roj thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam tau poob qis xyoo tas los, cov tub lag luam cia siab tias lawv yuav muaj kev saib xyuas ntau dhau rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, "ntxhi tus lej" sib koom ntawm cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam qhia tias kev nce nqi tseem ceeb - uas yog Fed lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb - yuav qeeb txawm tias sai dua li cov kws lag luam xav tau, raws li Bill Sterling, tus kws tshaj lij thoob ntiaj teb ntawm GW&K Kev nqis peev peev.
Hloov chaw, theem tseem ceeb, uas tshem tawm cov khoom noj tsis haum thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob, tau nce 0.3%, piv rau cov kev kwv yees nruab nrab los ntawm cov kws tshawb fawb los ntawm The Wall Street Journal.
Options traders twb optimistic dhau lawm
Kev xaiv cov tub luam tau muab tso rau hauv kev twv txiaj uas cov khoom lag luam yuav nce siab nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no raws li CPI cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm ze, raws li Charlie McElligott, tus thawj coj ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam ntawm Nomura, uas tau sau cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov kev xaiv ntws hauv daim ntawv qhia nrog cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov neeg sau xov xwm.
Tsis ntev ua ntej cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm, McElligott tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem "tsim rau kev poob siab" yog tias cov ntaub ntawv tuaj "tsuas yog nyob hauv kab" nrog kev cia siab.
Cov tub lag luam tau siv ntau txoj kev xaiv los pauv CPI cov ntaub ntawv thiab lwm yam kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm, raws li MarketWatch tau tshaj tawm.
Tshaj tawm tsis txav rab koob
Ntau lub lag luam tawm tswv yim tau sau tseg tom qab ntawm CPI daim ntawv tshaj tawm tias cov ntaub ntawv tsis tau hloov pauv qhov kev cia siab txog qhov twg cov paj laum yuav nce siab, lossis sai npaum li cas Fed yuav hloov ntawm cov nqi nce mus rau txiav lawv.
Tom qab daim ntawv tshaj tawm, cov tub lag luam ntawm cov paj laum yav tom ntej thawj koom ruam ntawm kev nce ntxiv ntawm Fed qeeb qeeb ntawm nws cov nqi nce mus rau 25 cov ntsiab lus hauv lub Peb Hlis. Thaum lawv tau pom yav dhau los xws li kev txav mus los yog qhov yuav tshwm sim, tam sim no lawv pom nws ua qhov tseeb virtual.
Tab sis kev cia siab txog thaum twg Fed yuav pib txiav cov nqi kuj tsis hloov pauv, nrog cov tub lag luam txuas ntxiv cia siab tias thawj zaug txiav tuaj txog rau lub caij nplooj zeeg.
Tej zaum qhov laj thawj loj tshaj plaws rau qhov no, raws li Sterling, yog tias Fed xav pom qhov kev thim rov qab tseem ceeb hauv kev nce nqi nyiaj ua ntej nws txaus siab.
Cov cim qhia ntawm kev ua haujlwm qeeb qeeb hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis tau pab txhawb nqa ib 700-point nce rau Dow Jones Industrial Average thaum daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev ua lag luam txhua hli tau tshaj tawm ib lub lim tiam dhau los rau hnub Friday. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias qhov kev nce qib ntawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los nruab nrab ib teev nyob rau xyoo dhau los tau qeeb mus rau 4.6% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis los ntawm 4.8% hauv Kaum Ib Hlis. Tab sis kev lag luam twb tau them nqi rau qhov no, cov kws tshaj lij hais tias.
Thiab txawm hais tias nws yog qhov zoo dua rau kev ntsuas kev ncaj ncees dua li cov nyiaj ua haujlwm nrawm, Sterling tau taw qhia tias Atlanta Fed cov nyiaj khwv tau los tseem khiav ntawm 6.4% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Qhov ntawd yuav tsum tau poob ntau heev kom txaus siab rau Fed, nws hais.
Sterling tau hais tias "Fed yuav tsum pom cov nyiaj khwv tau los rov qab los ze dua 3% kom ntseeg tau tias nws txoj haujlwm tiav," Sterling tau hais.
Cov nqi tseem siab dhau lawm
Thaum kawg, thaum tus nqi qis qis dua yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig kev nqis peev, cov khoom lag luam tseem zoo li tus nqi nplua nuj dhau los raws li lub sijhawm dhau los ntawm kev nce nyiaj nce siab, hais tias Greg Stanek, tus thawj coj saib xyuas ntawm Gilman Hill Asset Management.
"Kev ua lag luam nyiam thaum kev nce nqi nqis, uas txhais tau tias ntau dua," Stanek hais. "Txawm li cas los xij, kev nce nqi yog nyob ntawm 6.5%. Qhov ntawd tseem siab dhau los ua pov thawj them 17x rau kev ua lag luam. "
Tus nqi-rau-nyiaj tau los piv rau S&P 500 yog 17.3 raws li hnub Wednesday kaw, piv rau lub ncov tsis ntev los no sab qaum teb ntawm 24 lub Cuaj Hlis 2020, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv.
Xyoo dhau los, Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau nthuav tawm cov lus teb muaj zog rau CPI cov ntaub ntawv. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj CPI tus lej yeej cov kws lag luam kev cia siab rau qhov poob qis, S&P 500 nce 5.5% hauv ib hnub. Nws yog qhov loj tshaj txhua hnub nce ntawm lub xyoo hauv 2022.
Kom paub tseeb tias, kev lag luam zoo li yuav saib mus tom ntej, raws li cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam nyiam hais, thiab ib txwm muaj qhov ua tau tias cov tub lag luam pom hnub Thursday cov ntaub ntawv tuaj yeem hloov zuj zus nyob rau hnub tom ntej thiab lub lis piam.
Hauv ib qho kev ntsuam xyuas tsis ntev los no, Deutsche Bank tus kws tshaj lij tau tshuaj xyuas US cov khoom lag luam 'cov tshuaj tiv thaiv rau cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tau tshaj tawm ob xyoos dhau los. Nws pom tias kev ua lag luam cov tshuaj tiv thaiv ua ntau muddled raws li lub sij hawm mus.
Txawm hais tias kev nce nqi tau nce siab dua li qhov xav tau ntau dua li qhov nws tau qis dua hauv lub sijhawm ob xyoos, "kev ua tau zoo tau nce me ntsis ntau dua li qhov xav tau," said Jim Reid, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb thematic ntawm Deutsche Bank, hauv ib qho. tsab ntawv tshaj tawm ua ntej ntawm cov ntaub ntawv rau hnub Thursday.
DEUTSCHE BANK
"Lub Plaub Hlis 2022, qhov kev poob qis hauv lub Peb Hlis kev nyeem ntawv pom qhov muag -9% nyob rau lub hli tom ntej, thaum tib qhov txiaj ntsig rau lub Kaum Hli 2022 cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis pom qhov kev sib tw +7% tom qab cov ntaub ntawv tawm thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 10, "Reid hais.
Cov khoom lag luam tau ua tiav nrog kev nce siab me me rau hnub Thursday, nrog S&P 500
SPX,
nce los ntawm 13.56 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 0.3%, rau 3,983.17, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
nce 216.96 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 0.6%, rau 34,189.97, thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
nce 69.43 ntsiab lus, lossis 0.6%, rau 11,001.10.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-stock-market-isnt-impressed-with-the-first-monthly-decline-in-inflation-in-more-than-2-years- 11673564734?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo