Stanley Druckenmiller ntshai kev poob nyiaj txiag yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev tom qab ntau tshaj li ib xyoos ntawm kev cuam tshuam cov paj laum los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau ua tsis tiav los cuam tshuam kev nce nqi. Tus kws pab nyiaj txiag muaj npe nrov, uas tam sim no ua haujlwm hauv Duquesne Tsev Neeg Lub Chaw Haujlwm, tau hais rau hnub Wednesday tias txawm hais tias kev lag luam tsis ntev los no los ntawm kev poob haujlwm tsawg thiab kev loj hlob GDP thawj peb lub hlis twg - nws ntseeg tias "kev tsaws nyuaj" yog qhov kev zam.
Nws hais tias "Peb lub hauv paus tseem ceeb yog muaj khau ntau dua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog-ntxiv rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev-kev lag luam," nws hais rau Bloomberg Hnub Wednesday.
Tau ntau xyoo tam sim no, Druckenmiller tau thuam Fed cov tub ceev xwm rau qhov ua rau muaj cov khoom muaj nqis npuas hauv cov khoom lag luam, vaj tse, thiab lwm yam lag luam tom qab Ntiaj Teb Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag, nrog lawv cov cai yooj yim nyiaj txiag. Thiab txawm tias tom qab Fed tau hloov pauv txoj haujlwm thiab pib nce tus nqi hauv 2022, ua rau lub xyoo tsis txaus ntseeg rau kev lag luam, nws ntseeg tias muaj kev poob qis dua tom ntej - uas tsis yog npuas popping.
Tus qub tub rog ua lag luam tau sib cav tias cov paj laum siab tuaj yeem ua rau muaj teeb meem ntau dua hauv cov haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam zoo li qhov tshwm sim nrog cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv cheeb tsam hauv lub Peb Hlis, thaum Silicon Valley Bank ua tsis tau sai, yuam cov neeg tswj hwm kom nkag mus thiab thim cov neeg tso nyiaj. Nws tau taw qhia rau kev lag luam kev lag luam uas tsis zoo, thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov chaw ua haujlwm-uas Fortune yav dhau los tshaj tawm yog nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm kev kub ntxhov nyob rau lub sijhawm tam sim no - raws li ib cheeb tsam uas tuaj yeem muaj teeb meem. Tab sis nws kuj tau ceeb toom tias "cov credit crunch" tuaj yeem yog txoj hauv kev, vim tias cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag tau qhuav thiab lawv yuav muaj kev pheej hmoo tsawg dua thaum kev lag luam qeeb qeeb.
"Muaj ntau yam khoom hauv qab lub hood thaum koj mus los ntawm ib puag ncig zoo li no, qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev ua npuas ncauj, thiab tom qab ntawd koj cov paj laum nce txog 500 cov ntsiab lus hauv ib xyoos, Kuv xav tias qhov tshwm sim yog Silicon Valley Bank, txaj. Da dej & Tshaj, tej zaum lawv yog qhov kawg ntawm cov dej khov, "nws hais.
Druckenmiller tau tshaj tawm lub suab ceeb toom txog lub peev xwm rau 2023 Asmeskas kev lag luam poob rau ntau tshaj ib xyoos tam sim no. Tus neeg nplua nuj, uas muaj npe nrov tsis tau muaj lub xyoo dhau los ua tus thawj tswj hwm khoom vaj khoom tsev, tau hais thaum lub Cuaj Hlis xyoo tas los tias nws "yuav xav tsis thoob yog tias peb tsis muaj kev poob qis hauv '23."
"Kuv tsis paub lub sijhawm tab sis yeej yog thaum kawg ntawm '23. Kuv yuav tsis xav tsis thoob yog tias nws tsis loj dua li qhov hu ua nruab nrab vaj ntau yam, "nws hais rau cov tub ua lag luam ntawm CNBC's Delivering Alpha Investor Summit.
Tom qab lub hlis ntawd, Druckenmiller tau ceeb toom tias cov paj laum ntau dua tuaj yeem ua rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam qeeb, ua rau "qhov muaj feem ntau" uas cov khw lag luam yuav nyob ncaj rau ib xyoo caum. Thiab nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis ntawm lub xyoo no, nws rov hais dua nws cov lus ceeb toom tsis txaus ntseeg, sib cav tias kev lag luam tau nce siab ntawm qhov chaw nyuaj, thiab thaum nws poob, kev lag luam yuav nce siab, kev poob haujlwm yuav dhia ntau dua 5%, thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm tuam txhab yuav poob tsawg kawg. 20%.
Cov phooj ywg billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach, tus tsim ntawm lub tuam txhab peev DoubleLine Capital uas yog lub npe hu ua "tus huab tais daim ntawv cog lus," kuj ntshai tias kev lag luam nyob rau hauv qhov chaw tsis xis nyob tam sim no. Gundlach hais rau DoublineCapital cov tub ua lag luam ntawm lub vev xaib hnub Tuesday tias qhov ntsuas kev lag luam yog "tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam poob qis," CNBC tau tshaj tawm.
Nws tau taw qhia rau Pawg Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam (LEI), uas tau poob qis 0.6% hauv lub Plaub Hlis thiab 4.4% thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2022 thiab Plaub Hlis 2023. LEI yog txhais tau tias pab kwv yees cov ntsiab lus hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam thiab suav nrog cov khoom xws li kev tso cai hauv tsev, tsis muaj haujlwm. Cov ntawv thov, thiab ISM New Orders Performance index, uas taug qab kev txiav txim ruaj khov. Lub Rooj Sib Tham Pawg Thawj Coj Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, tus thawj coj loj ntawm Kev Lag Luam Cycle Indicators, tau hais hauv nqe lus tias LEI "tseem ceeb toom txog kev lag luam poob qis xyoo no."
Gundlach tau hais tias "Nws yog qhov tseeb zoo nkauj uas peb muaj qhov zoo li sai sai yuav nyob rau ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev lag luam," Gundlach hais txog cov ntaub ntawv.
Tseem, muaj ib tug ntxhw nyob hauv chav no—AI
Euphoria dhau ntawm thev naus laus zis tau tuav cov tub ua lag luam nyob rau lub hlis tsis ntev los no, ua rau AI-txog cov khoom lag luam thiab ETFs nce siab. Thiab Druckenmiller, uas muaj nqis ze li ntawm $ 10 nphom, raws li Bloomberg's Billionaires Index, tau hais rau hnub Wednesday nws pom lub sijhawm hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis, txawm tias qhov kev ntsuas tau ncav cuag.
"Lawv tseem tsis tau cais cov nplej los ntawm chaff, tab sis kuv ntseeg, tsis zoo li crypto, tias AI yog tiag tiag thiab nws tuaj yeem hloov pauv raws li hauv internet," nws hais.
Zaj dab neeg no tau pib tshwm sim rau ntawm Fortune.com
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-warns-200255702.html