Kev cia siab cov cim tau tshwm sim rau kev lag luam crypto ib nrab-lub sij hawm raws li kev ntsuas ntawm cov saw hlau rau bitcoin qhia lub ntiaj teb cov cuab tam digital loj tshaj plaws los ntawm kev ua lag luam tus nqi yuav tau tsoo nws hauv qab xyoo 2022.
Cov no suav nrog Kev Ua Lag Luam Tus Nqi rau Kev Pom Zoo Tus Nqi (MVRV) thiab Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric (NUPL), ob qho tib si uas cuam tshuam qhov kev hloov pauv tom qab FTX lub cev qhuav dej thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis.
Kev sib tw hauv cov cuab tam digital, sawv cev los ntawm tus nqi nce hauv bitcoin (BTC), thiab ether (ETH) xyoo no, yog txhawb qhov kev ua si. Ob qho khoom muaj nqis nce 35% thiab 30% ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv ib xyoos ntawm $ 22,450 thiab $ 1,550 feem, Kev tshawb nrhiav Blockworks cov ntaub ntawv qhia.
Cov ntaub ntawv muab los ntawm CryptoQuant qhia tau hais tias MVRV ntaus nws qhov qis tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 9, nyob ib puag ncig lub sijhawm kev tshwm sim tuaj rau pom tias FTX tau liam tias siv nyiaj siv tsis raug, ntawm kev nyeem ntawv ntawm 0.75.
MVRV piv yog ib qho metric siv los txiav txim seb puas muaj khoom vaj khoom tsev, qhov no, bitcoin, yog undervalued los yog overvalued.
Thaum qhov piv txwv yog siab dua 3.7, bitcoin tau hais tias yuav tsum muaj nqis tshaj thiab tej zaum yuav nyob rau ntawm lub khw sab saum toj. Hloov pauv, thaum kev nyeem ntawv qis dua 1, cov cuab yeej cuab tam raug suav tias tsis muaj nqis thiab yuav nyob hauv qab kev lag luam.
Lub sijhawm kawg ntawm MVRV piv tau nyob ib puag ncig raws li nws lub Kaum Ib Hlis luam tawm yog rov qab rau Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 15, 2018, thaum tus nqi ntawm ib qho bitcoin pauv ntawm $ 3,200. Txawm hais tias lub xyoo tsis zoo rau kev nqis tes ua hauv 2019, bitcoin yeej tsis poob qis dua nws 2018 lows.
NUPL, ib qho kev ntsuas siv los ntsuas qhov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ntawm txhua tus tuav bitcoin, pib nyem cov cim zoo sib xws nyob rau tib lub sijhawm.
Zoo li MVRV piv, NUPL tuaj yeem qhia seb puas yog bitcoin tsis muaj nqis lossis tsis muaj nqis. Keeb kwm, NUPL qib siab tshaj 0.7 (70% qhov nruab nrab cov nyiaj tau los) tau teeb tsa kev lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus, thaum theem qis dua -0.4 (-40% cov paj tau paj) tau teeb tsa kev lag luam hauv qab.
NUPL nyeem ntawv rau bitcoin mus txog qhov qis ntawm -0.3 thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis ntawm tus nqi ntawm $ 15,800 thiab tau tuav qhov kev nyeem ntawv zoo txij li nruab nrab Lub Ib Hlis. NUPL yog tam sim no trending ntawm 0.1 tom qab hla 365-hnub tsiv nruab nrab qhov pib, taw qhia bitcoin yuav tau pib lub voj voog tshiab.
Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias txawm hais tias muaj qhov qhia tau tias muaj peev xwm "crypto caij nplooj ntoos hlav," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ceeb toom thaum kawg ntawm Lub Ob Hlis tias nws tseem ntxov ntxov tshaj tawm ntawm lub sijhawm no.
Lawv tau ceeb toom tawm tsam qhov muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev nce nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua, qhov ua tau ntawm kev nce qib yav tom ntej thiab kev tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm macroeconomic uas yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis ntxiv.
Yav dhau los tus nqi keeb kwm kuj qhia. Txawm hais tias nws yog qhov tseeb tag nrho qhov kev rov qab los ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis yog qhov ua tau zoo, ib hnub kaw hauv qab txog $ 21,400 - nadir tsis ntev los no rau Lub Ob Hlis 13, tuaj yeem hais qhia txog qhov mob ntxiv.
Cryptoassets tuaj yeem poob ntau ntxiv thiab tseem tuav tau qhov kev nce siab tam sim no ntawm macro timeframes, txawm tias lub Kaum Ib Hlis qis qis. Tab sis tag nrho drawdown nyob rau hauv tus nqi bitcoin los ntawm nws lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021 ncov txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022 trough, ntawm 77% yog qhov dav zoo ib yam li cov voj voog ua ntej hauv Bitcoin keeb kwm.
L2 qhov taw qhia zoo dua li cov majors?
Ib txhia zoo li Rich Falk-Wallace, CEO ntawm crypto cov ntaub ntawv analytics platform Arcana qhia tias kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov saw hlau yog qhov taw qhia zoo dua ntawm tus nqi rau tsawg dua siv blockchains tshaj rau cov uas siv tag nrho xws li bitcoin thiab ether.
"Rau lwm cov npib thiab txheej-2s, peb tau pom 90% + kev sib raug zoo nruab nrab ntawm cov neeg siv niaj hnub thiab cov nqi," nws hais. "Tab sis rau bitcoin thiab ether, ob qho tib si chains ntaus tag nrho lub peev xwm nyob ib ncig ntawm 2018, uas txhais tau hais tias cov neeg siv cov lej tseem ceeb tau zoo li qub txij li lub sijhawm ntawd."
Kev ntaus lub peev xwm rau bitcoin thiab ether yog hais txog lub ntsiab lus uas lawv tau mus txog lawv qhov kev txwv tsis pub muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo, dhau qhov uas cov nqi nce ntxiv los txwv qhov kev thov ntxiv rau qhov chaw thaiv.
Qhov no ua rau maj mam nce hauv qhov chaw nyob niaj hnub vim tias muaj kev txwv ntawm qhov chaw nyob loj hlob. Falk-Wallace tau piav qhia ntxiv tias qhov nce ntxiv ntawm tus nqi rau cov saw hlau no yuav tsum yog los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm ib qho chaw nyob es tsis txhob nce ntawm cov neeg siv.
Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias muaj "kev sib raug zoo" ntawm cov neeg siv niaj hnub ua haujlwm thiab cov nqi rau lwm cov npib thiab txheej-2s, qhov twg qhov nce ntawm cov neeg siv niaj hnub siv ntawm cov chains no muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog kev nce hauv bitcoin tus nqi, nyob rau lub sijhawm nruab nrab.
"Yog tias koj saib tus nqi duas pauv ntawm cov saw hlau, qhov ntsuas tau zoo cuam tshuam nrog BTC tus nqi keeb kwm. Thiab qhov ntawd poob qis - thiab tau poob qis - txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis, "Falk-Wallace tau hais.
Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias, txawm tias hauv qab yog nyob rau hauv, cov tub ua lag luam yuav nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev dhuav cov txheeb ze.
Tau txais cov xov xwm crypto siab tshaj plaws niaj hnub thiab kev nkag siab xa mus rau koj tus email txhua hmo. Sau npe yuav Blockworks' tsab ntawv xov xwm pub dawb tam sim no.
Xav alpha xa ncaj qha rau koj lub inbox? Tau txais cov tswv yim kev lag luam degen, kev tswj hwm hloov tshiab, kev ua haujlwm token, tsis tuaj yeem nco tweets thiab ntau ntxiv los ntawm Blockworks Kev Tshawb Fawb Txhua Hnub Debrief.
tos tsis tau? Tau txais peb cov xov xwm sai tshaj plaws. Koom peb rau Telegram Thiab ua raws li peb Google Xov Xwm.
Tau qhov twg los: https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bottom-november-on-chain-metrics