Tojsiab
Txawm hais tias muaj kev nce qib hauv kev lag luam xws li AI, tshuaj thiab lub zog nuclear, kev nce qib loj hauv kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis tau qeeb thiab tsawg dua thiab nyob deb ntawm ntau dua kaum xyoo dhau los, raws li kev tshawb fawb. txoj kev tshawb no luam tawm nyob rau hauv xwm Hnub Wednesday, cov kws tshawb fawb stagnation hais tias yuav tsum tau thim rov qab los tawm tsam qee qhov teeb meem nyuaj tshaj plaws - xws li kev hloov pauv huab cua - ntsib tib neeg niaj hnub no.
Tus nqi ntawm kev cuam tshuam kev tshawb fawb tau qeeb qeeb hauv kaum xyoo tsis ntev los no, cov kws tshawb fawb pom.
txais
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Txawm hais tias muaj kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev tshawb fawb txog kev tshawb fawb nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo tsis ntev los no, kev txhim kho tau dhau los ua ntau ntxiv thiab tsis cuam tshuam, nrog kev nce qib hauv ntau qhov tseem ceeb, cov kws tshawb fawb pom.
Cov kws tshawb fawb tau tshuaj xyuas qee qhov 45 lab cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb thiab 3.9 lab patents ntawm xyoo 1945 thiab 2010, tshuaj xyuas cov tes hauj lwm ntawm cov ntawv pov thawj los ntsuam xyuas seb puas muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau cov xwm txheej quo los yog cuam tshuam cov kev paub uas twb muaj lawm thiab ntau dua thawb kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis tawm mus rau cov lus qhia tshiab.
Thoob plaws txhua qhov kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis loj, cov kev cuam tshuam loj no - qhov kev tshawb pom ntawm ob lub helix qauv ntawm DNA, uas ua rau kev tshawb fawb dhau los, yog ib qho piv txwv zoo ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb no - tau dhau los ua tsawg dua txij li xyoo 1945, cov kws tshawb fawb pom.
Hloov chaw, cov qauv sau ntawv qhia tias cov ntaub ntawv thiab patents muaj feem ntau yuav sib sau ua ke thiab txhim kho cov kev paub uas twb muaj lawm dua li cuam tshuam nws, cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias, nrog cov neeg tsim kho tshiab tau kos rau ntawm qhov nqaim ntawm kev paub los txhim kho lawv txoj haujlwm.
Russell Funk, tus xibfwb ntawm University of Minnesota thiab ib tus kws tshawb fawb sau ntawv tau hais tias "nws yuav siv sijhawm ntev dua los ua kom cov kev sib tw tseem ceeb uas thawb kev tshawb fawb mus tom ntej ntau dua," said Russell Funk.
Cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias qhov kev tshawb pom pom tau hais tias qhov yuav tsum tau rov xav dua yuav ua li cas peb ua kev tshawb fawb txog kev tshawb fawb kom zoo dua los pab txhawb kev cuam tshuam kev ua haujlwm thiab siv cov kev tsim kho tshiab los coj tib neeg cov teeb meem nyuaj tshaj plaws xws li kev hloov pauv huab cua thiab kev tshawb nrhiav chaw.
Dab Tsi Peb Tsis Paub
Nws tsis paub meej tias vim li cas kev tsim kho tshiab thoob plaws kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis tau qeeb hauv kaum xyoo txij li xyoo 1945. Cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias lawv qhov kev tshawb pom - uas lawv kuj tau soj ntsuam cov hom lus siv hauv patents thiab cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb nyob rau tib lub sijhawm - tsis zoo li yuav muaj. vim qhov poob qis ntawm kev tshawb fawb, vim tias qhov kev poob qis tseem nyob txawm tias lawv tsuas yog txheeb xyuas cov ntawv tshaj tawm saum toj kawg nkaus thiab Nobel-winning discoveries. Cov kev txheeb xyuas txheeb cais kuj tau txiav txim siab hloov pauv kev tshaj tawm, kev sau ntawv thiab kev coj ua pov thawj. Cov tswv yim nrov uas cov kws tshawb fawb yuav tau plucked tag nrho cov "cov txiv hmab txiv ntoo qis" - qhov yooj yim kev nce qib hauv thaj teb - lossis siv sijhawm ntev dua uas tau txais kev paub ntau dua ob qho tib si tawm tsam los piav qhia qhov sib xws ntawm kev poob qis hauv ntau txoj kev qhuab qhia.
Contra
Kev nce qib loj hauv kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis hauv xyoo tas los no-xws li nce mus tom ntej dag kev txawj ntse, nuclear kev sib txuas thiab kho cov noob caj noob ces - tuaj yeem ua rau nws nyuaj rau ntseeg tias kev kawm tshawb fawb tau raug kaw. Cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias qhov kev nce qib no tsis cuam tshuam nrog kev poob qis. Kev poob haujlwm cuam tshuam tsis cuam tshuam kev tawg, nws tsuas yog qeeb tus nqi uas lawv tshwm sim. Kev tshawb pom ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus thiab kev loj hlob ntawm mRNA Covid-19 cov tshuaj tiv thaiv yog ob qho piv txwv zoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm cuam tshuam loj heev tshwm sim nyob rau lub sijhawm thaum kev tshawb fawb feem ntau muaj qhov nce ntxiv, lawv tau hais.
Dab Tsi Los Saib
Qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev tshawb fawb txog kev tshawb fawb tsis zoo tag nrho thiab kev thuam ntau ntxiv rau yuav ua li cas nyiaj is ruaj khov, xaiv cov lus qhia tshawb fawb li cas, ntau haiv neeg cov soj ntsuam ntawm thiab kawm thiab cov siab rau kev kawm kom "tshaj tawm lossis tuag." Cov kws tshawb fawb, uas tau hais tias lawv qhov kev tshawb pom txhawb kev rov xav txog yuav ua li cas kev tshawb fawb tau ua thiab pom zoo rau kev kawm tau tso cai rau kev ywj pheej los tsom mus rau qhov zoo thiab nthuav dav lawv lub qab ntug, koom nrog kev sib tham ntawm lwm tus. pab tswv yim a kev tshawb fawb rov kho dua.
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
Pab pawg me ntawm cov kws tshawb fawb muaj cov tswv yim tshiab (Atlantic)
Yuav ua li cas loj technology systems yog slowing innovation (MIT Technology Review)
Txawm hais tias koj xav li cas los xij, Cov Kev Hloov Kho Tshiab Tseem Ceeb tuaj qeeb dua li lawv tau ua (Scientific American)
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/01/04/where-are-all-the-scientific-breakthroughs-forget-ai-nuclear-fusion-and-mrna-vaccines-advances- hauv-science-thiab-tech-have-slowed-major-study-hais/