Cov neeg ua lag luam tsis sib xws no tau ceeb toom raws sijhawm rau lub xeem loj tech sab saum toj. Tam sim no nws pom qhov poob loj tshaj plaws ntawm lub lag luam dais no tuag ua ntej.

MarketWatch kawg hais rau Kaplan hauv mid-November 2021, thaum nws ceeb toom ntawm looming selloff rau stocks, notably loj highfliers. Tsuas yog hnub tom qab, Invesco QQQ
QQQ,
-1.14%
Cov nyiaj pauv pauv nyiaj (ETF) uas taug qab Nasdaq-100 Index, thiab ntau lwm cov peev txheej thev naus laus zis tau tshaj tawm. S&P 500
SPX,
-0.72%
ncov ua raws lub Ib Hlis 4.

Kaplan raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj ceeb toom ib feem ntawm ib qho ntawm nws qhov kev nyiam tshaj plaws - tuam txhab sab hauv muag thiab yuav, uas nws taug qab ntawm J3 Cov Kev Pabcuam Xov Xwm.

Hauv kev xam phaj nrog MarketWatch rau hnub Wednesday, nws tau tshaj tawm cov npe ntawm cov teeb meem kev txhawj xeeb, xws li kev muag khoom hnyav los ntawm pawg ntawd dua, cov neeg ua lag luam piling rau hauv kev ua lag luam, tshaj tawm tias lub lag luam dais dhau lawm thiab Cboe Volatility Index, lossis VIX
VIX,
+ 0.35%,
tiab luv dua 20 hnub tsis ntev los no.

Keeb kwm kuj tseem ua ib feem tseem ceeb hauv nws txoj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam tam sim no.

"Nws yog qhov txaus nyiam kom pom tias ze li cas ntawm 1929-1932 thiab 2000-2002 dais lag luam sib piv, nrog yuav luag tib yam ntawm kev thim rov qab thiab rov qab los. Kuv xav tias tus cwj pwm zoo sib xws rau 2022-2025, "nws hais. (Saib qhov txuas rau daim duab qub)

Kaplan tau sau tseg tias nws siv yim xyoo rau xyoo 1929 dais lag luam los txog, ze li 10 xyoo rau lub Peb Hlis 2000s thiab tseem ntev dua rau lub lag luam dais nws pom tias tsis tu ncua, muab lub khw muag nyuj pib thaum Lub Peb Hlis 2009.

"Yog li qhov lawv txhua tus muaj qhov sib xws yog tias cov khw muag nyuj ntev ntev ua ntej cov lag luam dais ntev heev, uas tib neeg nyiam tsis nco qab yuav ua li cas nqis peev hauv cov lag luam dais thiab lawv nyob li cas," nws hais.

Tus cwj pwm kev lag luam uas paub dhau los ntawm keeb kwm tau poob me me los pib uas tsis kis kev ceeb toom, tom qab ntawd ib qho kev sib tw, tom qab ntawd qhov poob loj dua thiab rov qab loj dua, uas rov ua rau cov neeg ua lag luam. Tab sis nws hais tias raws li xyoo 1929, 1973 lossis 2000, theem tom ntej ntawm kev muag khoom tuaj yeem ua rau poob qis, xws li 40% rau cov nyiaj xws li QQQ.

Kaplan txhawj xeeb txog qhov tseeb Fidelity peb lub hlis twg daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas nyiaj laus, uas qhia cov tub ua lag luam clinging vam tias kev ua lag luam yuav rov qab mus rau siab yog tias lawv tos ntev txaus. Kev sib tw, Kaplan tau taw qhia rau lwm txoj kev tshawb fawb qhia tias cov tib neeg uas tau nqis peev hauv kev lag luam thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 1929 tseem yog 38% nqis los ntawm Lub Yim Hli 1982 hauv cov ntsiab lus tiag tiag, kho rau kev nce nqi.

Nws tau hais tias "Nws zoo li tawg cov lus dab neeg uas koj yuav tsum tawm mus ua ntej yog tias koj tsuas yog zoo li dai rau hauv qhov ntawd thaum muaj xwm txheej nyuaj," nws hais.

Nyeem: Feem ntau cov neeg txuag nyiaj laus yog 'nyob hauv chav kawm' - txawm tias lawv tau ntxhov siab tag nrho

Yog li yuav ua li cas tiv nrog lwm qhov poob loj. Rov hais dua lub Kaum Ib Hlis cov lus qhia, nws pom zoo rau I-Bond lossis Series I cov nyiaj khaws cia uas tuaj yeem yuav ncaj qha los ntawm tsoomfwv thiab tam sim no muab cov nyiaj rov qab tsuas yog ntau dua 9%. US Treasurys tseem them 3% rau 3.5% tam sim no, lwm txoj hauv kev mus rau xyoo tom ntej, nws hais.

Nyeem: Txoj cai no nrog cov ntaub ntawv zoo meej hais tias kev lag luam tsis tau qis dua, hais tias Bank of America tus kws tshuaj ntsuam lub hnub qub

Cov kev lag luam

Npaj rau yav tom ntej
ES 00,
+ 0.25%

YM00,
+ 0.16%

NQ 00,
+ 0.33%
yog inch nce, tom qab hnub Wednesday qhov kev poob siab ntawm Fed. Bond yields
TUBMUSD 10Y,
2.850%

TUBMUSD 02Y,
3.216%
yog easing, thaum tus duas
DXY,
+ 0.02%
yog tiaj. Cov nqi roj
CL.1,
+ 1.09%

BRN00,
+ 1.39%
nce toj, thiab bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+ 0.63%
yog hover under $24,000.

Nyeem: Vim li cas ib tus kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag ntshai Japanese yen tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau qis qis qis

Lub buzz

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond
MevB,
+ 11.77%,
uas tau nyob rau a vwm meme caij lately, tab tom poob tom qab GameStop
GME,
-3.96%
Thawj Tswj Hwm Ryan Cohen tau tshaj tawm cov phiaj xwm unload nws hefty ceg txheem ntseeg nyob rau hauv lub khw muag khoom lub hlis tom qab yuav nws. Lub caij no, no 20-xyoo-laus tau txais txiaj ntsig loj heev nyob rau hauv Tshuag, raws li Securities thiab Exchange Commission filings.

Cov khw muag khoom Kohl's
KSS,
-3.25%
yog tumbling a profit nco thiab txiav outlook ntawm cov phiaj xwm txiav cov khoom muag ntau

Cisco
CSCO,
-0.24%
Tshuag yog nce tom qab lub tech loj heev xav tsis thoob upbeat khwv tau thiab nyiaj tau los kwv yees.

Kua
AAPL,
+ 0.88%
npaj rau nthuav tawm nws qhov tseeb iPhone 14 thiab smartwatches Lub Cuaj Hlis 7, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom tshiab.

"Tsawg ntawm ib lub sijhawm." Stellantis
STLA,
-1.90%
unit Dodge rau discontinue ob nrov 'muscle tsheb' raws li nws qaij mus rau lub tsheb fais fab.

Cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm txhua lub limtiam thiab Philly Fed Performance index yuav dhau los ua ntej lub tswb nrov, ua raws li kev muag khoom hauv tsev uas twb muaj lawm thiab cov ntsuas kev lag luam. Kansas City Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Esther George yuav hais lus thaum 1:20 teev tsaus ntuj Eastern thiab Minneapolis Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Neel Kashkari thaum 1:45 teev tsaus ntuj

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm lub vev xaib

Cov Roj Loj yog qhov zoo siab dhau qhov kev hloov pauv qeeb ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide yuav txaus los tiv thaiv lub ntiaj teb kom sov

Ob xyoos tom qab Covid kev kis tus kab mob, kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev puas siab puas ntsws thiab dementia linger

Kremlin tshaj tawm hais tias tshem tawm lub taub hau ntawm nws cov Dub hiav txwv Fleet tom qab Crimea tawm tsam

Top tickers

Cov no yog cov neeg tshawb nrhiav saum toj kawg nkaus ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov Eastern Time:

Random nyeem

Cov neeg ncig tebchaws coj cwj pwm phem: Ob tug raug ntes hauv Venice rau cruising nws txoj kev dej ntawm motorized surfboards.

Tus shark loj heev uas ploj lawm sai dua, loj dua thiab tshaib plab dua li cov kws tshawb fawb tau xav

Cambodia pom nws cov khoom qub qub ploj lawm - ntawm Met

Xav paub kom paub pib thaum ntxov thiab raug kho kom txog thaum qhib lub tswb nrov, tab sis sau npe tuaj ntawm no kom nws tau xa nws ib zaug rau koj lub npov email. Lub emailed yuav xa tawm thaum txog 7: 30 teev sawv ntxov.