Cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis tau tswj hwm lub khw lag luam hauv kaum xyoo dhau los, tab sis nrog kev pheej hmoo siab nyiaj txiag yuam Federal Reserve kom nce nqi paj, lawv txoj kev kav yuav los txog rau qhov kawg. "Cov lag luam dais muaj keeb kwm ua rau kev hloov pauv kev coj noj coj ua," sau Bank of America Tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees Savita Subramanian hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Wednesday, "uas qhia tias kev lag luam qub yuav yog cov yeej ntawm lub voj voog no."
Tom qab xyoo ntawm Fed lub zero-interest tus nqi txoj cai (ZIRP) fueling speculative kev nqis peev nyob rau hauv tech tuam txhab uas muag uas muaj peev xwm siv cov nqi pheej yig rau nyiaj txiag kev loj hlob sai, lub era ntawm "dawb nyiaj"tau dhau lawm, raws li lub txhab nyiaj.
Cov paj laum yuav zoo nyob "siab dua rau ntev," Subramanian sib cav, uas txhais tau tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum saib rau cov haujlwm uas sawv cev rau "kev lag luam qub" suav nrog lub zog, khoom siv, thiab kev lag luam. "Kev lag luam qub tau tshaib plab los ntawm peev rau 10+ xyoo, thaum tech tau nyiam nyiaj dawb. Nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm ZIRP, peb pom lub pendulum swinging rov qab mus rau qhov qub kev lag luam raws li kev ua lag luam ntev ntev tau ua rau muaj teeb meem, "nws sau.
Tom qab tech stocks ' siab phem xyoo nyob rau hauv 2022, lub sector rebounded sharply nyob rau hauv Lub ib hlis ntuj raws li muaj zog tshaj li qhov xav tau ntawm kev ua lag luam cov ntaub ntawv thiab fading inflation boosted investor kev ntseeg siab. Tab sis lub hli no tau ua ib zaj dab neeg sib txawv, nrog rau cov tech-hnyav Nasdaq sinking ze li ntawm 5% txij thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2. Txawm tias tom qab poob, Subramanian tau ceeb toom rau hnub Wednesday tias kev loj hlob tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis tseem tsis tau them nqi rau qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob qis lossis cov paj laum siab dua.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov haujlwm uas sawv cev rau kev lag luam qub xws li cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam thiab txawm tias cov tsev tsim khoom lag luam tawm ntawm "cov ntaub ntawv luv nqi" piv nrog S&P 500 raws li cov nqi pheej hmoo pheej hmoo - uas yog los ntawm kev rho tawm cov paj laum tiag tiag ntawm lub 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag los ntawm ib tug muab sector tus nqi tom qab / khwv tau los piv.
Tseem, Subramanian tau ceeb toom tias tag nrho cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb tshaj. S&P 500 tam sim no pauv ntau dua 18 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los rau pem hauv ntej, uas yog 20% siab dua xyoo kaum xyoo dhau los. Thiab tsuas yog plaub ntawm 10 ntawm Bank of America lub khw muag khoom lag luam - uas flash thaum lub khw muag nyuj tshiab tau pib thiab suav nrog tej yam xws li kev txiav nyiaj paj laum thiab kev tshawb fawb cov neeg ua lag luam - tau tshwm sim rau lub hlis no.
Subramanian kuj tau piav qhia tias thaum qhov tseeb "cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam muaj zog" - suav nrog cov khoom muag muag lub Ib Hlis muaj zog thiab cov ntawv tshaj tawm haujlwm - tej zaum yuav ncua sij hawm ntawm kev lag luam poob qis, nws kuj txhais tau tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem nce ntxiv, ua rau muaj kev nce siab ntxiv los ntawm Fed.
Bank of America tus thawj coj Asmeskas tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag Michael Gapen muaj ceeb toom cov tub ua lag luam ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm rau kev lag luam poob qis vim qhov nce paj paj txij li nws tau pib ua haujlwm lub Xya Hli dhau los. Thiab txawm hais tias muaj cov cim ntawm kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo hauv kev ua lag luam, nws tau nce ob npaug ntawm kev kwv yees lub lim tiam dhau los hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom, hu rau "kev lag luam me me" qee lub sijhawm xyoo no.
Tawm tsam qhov teeb meem no, qee cov tub ua lag luam tau sib cav tias nws yuav ua rau muaj kev nkag siab ntau dua los nqis peev hauv US Treasuries, uas tam sim no muab cov txiaj ntsig tiag tiag, thiab zam cov khoom lag luam. Tus billionaire "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach tau hais rau hnub Wednesday tias nws tab tom npaj rau ib qho lub caij txom nyem ntawm DoubleLine Capital, uas tswj hwm kwv yees li $ 100 nphom hauv cov cuab tam, los ntawm kev tuav cov kev nqis peev uas pheej hmoo tsawg xws li Nyiaj Txiag.
“Kuv ib txwm hais tias, 'Tsis txhob mloog kuv hais, saib seb kuv ua dab tsi.' Thiab peb tau pib de-risk, yog tias koj xav tau, hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2021, "nws hais Yahoo nyiaj txiag.
Morgan Stanley Tus thawj coj kev nqis peev Mike Wilson kuj tau ceeb toom lub lim tiam dhau los tias cov khoom lag luam nyob hauv "tsam tuag, "thiab nws cia siab tias S&P 500 yuav poob ntau dua 20% mus rau qhov qis 3000s ua ntej rov qab mus rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
5 sab hustles qhov twg koj tuaj yeem khwv tau tshaj $ 20,000 toj ib xyoo - tag nrho thaum ua haujlwm hauv tsev
Millennials 'tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov nuj nqis: Yuav ua li cas lub teb chaws cov neeg ua haujlwm loj tshaj plaws sib tw tawm tsam lwm tus
Nrhiav nyiaj ntxiv? Xav txog ib daim tshev nyiaj ntxiv
Qhov no yog nyiaj npaum li cas koj yuav tsum tau khwv tau txhua xyoo kom yooj yim yuav tsev $600,000
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/free-money-tech-investment-over-213534245.html