Thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam vaj tsev tau poob qis, thaum nws xaus nws kuj tawg vim kev nce nqi; ntsig txog qhov no, lub pub Thawj Tswj Hwm ntseeg tias kev ua lag luam yuav tsum hloov pauv kom yooj yim rau cov neeg yuav khoom dua.
Jerome Powell txheeb xyuas kev lag luam vaj tsev
Txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis, Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tsev tau tawg mus rau theem tshiab thiab nce siab vim qhov nce nyiaj nce ntxiv. Lub caij no, Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas Federal Reserve Jerome Powell taw qhia lub lim tiam no tias Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tsev xav tau kev kho thiab ntseeg tias nws tuaj yeem hloov kho kom "cov neeg muaj peev xwm them tau tsev dua."
Lub US Central Bank lub hom phiaj kom ua tiav kev ua haujlwm siab tshaj plaws thiab ib qho Kev nce nqi ntawm 2% ib zaug Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve's ironclad mus kom ze ntawm tus nqi siab hikes ceases.
Hauv qhov no, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Goldman Sachs, lub tuam txhab lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom txog yuav ua li cas Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tsev tau los rau qhov tsis txaus siab tom qab muaj kev nthuav dav hauv lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis, kev tshawb fawb siv lub npe "Lub tsev muaj kev kub ntxhov: kev poob ntxiv" thiab tau tshaj tawm los ntawm txhua tus. cov ntawv xov xwm kev lag luam.
Goldman Sachs tshaj tawm tias qhov kev poob qis hauv kev muag tsev tshiab hauv 2022 yuav yog 22%, qhov poob hauv cov tsev uas twb muaj lawm yuav yog 17%, thiab GDP yuav sau npe -8.9%.
Raws li xyoo 2023, nws kwv yees tias kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav tsis muaj so thiab muag tsev tshiab yuav poob los ntawm lwm 8% Los ntawm lub xyoo no, cov tsev uas twb muaj lawm yuav poob 14%, thiab GDP vaj tse yuav poob ntxiv 9.2%:
"Qee qhov tsis muaj zog tsis ntev los no zoo li cuam tshuam qhov kev thim rov qab ntawm qhov kev nyiam cuam tshuam txog kev hloov pauv uas tau dhau los ua sai dua li qhov peb xav tau. Peb tau pom yav dhau los tias qhov kev poob siab los ntawm tus kab mob no tau ua kom tsev neeg tsim thiab nce kev thov rau lub tsev thib ob ... cov cua uas muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tau ploj mus, vim cov cheeb tsam uas tau ntsib kev muag khoom loj hauv tsev thiab kev tso cai tsim kho xyoo 2020 thiab 2021 tam sim no tau muaj kev cuam tshuam. kev poob qis xyoo no. Kev poob vaj tse yav dhau los feem ntau tau nrog kev lag luam poob qis, uas tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm vaj tse vim kev poob hauj lwm tau nce thiab cov tib neeg tau raug yuam kom muag lawv lub tsev (qhov no yog qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag). Txawm li cas los xij, kev nkag mus ntawm cov khoom siv los ntawm cov channel no zoo li tsis zoo li hauv lub voj voog no: kev lag luam kev ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog (thiab tej zaum yuav yog, txawm tias nyob rau hauv kev lag luam me me) thiab, raws li peb tau sau lub lim tiam dhau los, cov ntawv txheeb xyuas tsev neeg muaj zog heev thiab cov nqi qiv nyiaj. cia siab tias yuav nyob hauv keeb kwm qis. Tom qab ntawd, peb cia siab tias cov nqi tsev yuav nyob ruaj khov hauv 2023. "
Scott Anderson, Chief Economist ntawm Bank of the West, hais tias:
"Kev txaus siab ntawm cov nqi tsev yog destined kom nres sai li sai tau raws li qhov hnyav ntawm kev siv tsis zoo ntawm vaj tse thiab kev puas tsuaj ntawm kev lag luam thiab nyiaj txiag ib puag ncig. Qhov kev kho no tuaj yeem tshwm sim ib zaug thaum muaj kev poob qis lossis maj mam dhau sijhawm. Txawm hais tias koj ntsuas nws li cas niaj hnub no, cov nqi tsev yog kim heev. "
raws li Crystal Sunbury, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas vaj tsev laus ntawm RSM, Asmeskas cov tsev muaj txiaj ntsig ntau:
"Tus nqi tsev tau tshaj qhov nyiaj nce siab los ntawm qhov tseem ceeb. Cov nqi tsis zoo li yuav poob rau hauv 'tus nqi ncaj ncees' thaj chaw nyob ze yav tom ntej. "
Fed teeb tsa lwm tus nqi nce ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus
Lub lim tiam dhau los no muaj thib peb sib law liag hike of 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, txawm hais tias muaj qee qhov tsis ntseeg txog seb qhov nce yuav yog 100 lossis 75 cov ntsiab lus. Cov khw muag khoom lag luam, cryptocurrencies thiab cov hlau muaj txiaj ntsig tau raug nqi hauv qhov kev nce qib no los ntawm Fed.
Powell cuam tshuam nrog ib nqe lus uas nws hinted tias kev kho nyob rau hauv lub lag luam vaj tse thiab ib tug khov nyob rau hauv cov nqi tsev yuav tsum tau coj inflation rov qab mus rau qhov kev cia siab ntau-rau 2%.
Hnub Wednesday, Powell tau hais cov hauv qab no ntawm cov ntsiab lus:
"Kev txo qis hauv cov nqi tsev uas peb tab tom pom yuav tsum pab coj qee tus nqi ntau dua nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog cov nqi xauj tsev thiab lwm yam kev lag luam hauv vaj tsev thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo.
Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, qhov peb xav tau yog rau cov khoom siv thiab kev thov kom ua kom zoo dua qub, kom cov nqi tsev nce ntawm qhov tsim nyog, ntawm qhov tsim nyog, thiab cov neeg tuaj yeem them tau tsev dua.
Los ntawm hom kev lag luam ncig saib, qhov kev kho nyuaj no yuav tsum coj cov vaj tsev lag luam rov qab mus rau qhov zoo dua. "
Bankrate.com tau tshawb fawb luam tawm rau 24 Lub Cuaj Hli 2022 los ntawm qhov nws qhia tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab tam sim no rau 30-xyoo qiv qiv yog 6.55%.
30-xyoo tus nqi qiv nyiaj ruaj khov tau nce 27 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus nyob rau hauv xya hnub dhau los, thiab kaum cheeb tsam hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau poob qis piv rau lwm thaj chaw hauv Tebchaws Meskas, raws li kev tshawb pom los ntawm tuam txhab vaj tse Redfin.
Kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob tab tom muaj kev poob qis hauv Tebchaws Meskas
Ntawm cov nroog hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas feem ntau cuam tshuam los ntawm cov qauv no yog Seattle, Las Vegas, San Jose, San Diego, Sacramento, Phoenix, Oakland, North Port, Florida, thiab Tacoma thiab Washington, uas peb tuaj yeem qhia los ntawm kev ceev nrawm ntawm daim ntawv qhia yog tawg thoob plaws hauv lub tebchaws, ua pov thawj tias tus qauv yog lub tebchaws.
Rick Palacios Jr, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm John Burns Real Estate Consulting, qhia cov hauv qab no hauv kev xam phaj hnub Thursday hauv Fortune:
"Ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv hauv Fed qhov kev xaiv ntawm cov lus los ntawm 'tsev yuav tsum tau rov pib dua' thaum Lub Rau Hli mus rau 'kev kho vaj tse niaj hnub no txhais tau tias kev kho' qhia tau hais tias lawv ua tau zoo heev nrog cov nqi tsev poob, muag. ntawm cov tsev txias thiab kev tsim kho kom txo qis kom ua tiav lawv lub luag haujlwm. "
Mark Zandi, Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam ntawm Google Analytics, xam phaj los ntawm Asmeskas Hnub no tau hais qhia tias Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob yeej tau muaj kev cog lus loj.
"Ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm 400 lub lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv Asmeskas" yog "tus nqi ntau dua" los ntawm ntau dua 25%. Kuv xav tias qhov no yuav tshwm sim nyob rau ob xyoos tom ntej no, thiab nws yuav dhau mus rau nruab nrab ntawm kaum xyoo kom txog thaum cov khoom tsoo pob zeb hauv qab. "
John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Capital Economics, Zelman & Associates, thiab Zonda concur nrog Google Analytics 'xav.
90% ntawm kev lag luam kev muag khoom yog rau cov tsev uas twb muaj lawm, thiab nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej lawv yuav raug kev txom nyem ib $ 4.73 lab poob tom qab twb tau ntaus lawv cov duab phem tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2020 xyoo no.
Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist ntawm Windermere Real Estate, piav qhia hauv kev xam phaj tias:
"Cov neeg yuav khoom txaus ntshai los ntawm kev nce nqi nyiaj txiag sai sai uas lawv tau pom txog tam sim no xyoo no. Kev ceev faj tus cwj pwm yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog rau lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav xyoo 2023, thaum kev muag khoom yuav rov pib dua, txawm tias me me. "
Qhov sib txawv ntawm cov nqi vaj tsev kom sib npaug rau cov pej xeem lub zog yuav khoom kom cov tsev yuav rov yuav dua yuav pab Asmeskas kev lag luam mus ntev.
Tau qhov twg los: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2022/09/26/jerome-powell-housing-market-correct/