Zillow pom cov nqi xauj tsev nce siab tshaj, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov Fed taug qab

"Peb tuaj yeem ua siab zoo tias nws cuam tshuam rau peb li cas," Kevin Gordon, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb txog peev ntawm Charles Schwab & Co., hais hauv xov tooj. "Tab sis cov kev ntsuas, cov peev txheej, tsis zoo ib yam li qhov Fed tab tom taug qab, thiab dab tsi nkag mus rau CPI."

Qhov loj vaj tse tiv thaiv ntawm qhov ntsuas tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, qhov ntsuas kev nce nqi tseem ceeb rau Fed, feem ntau hinges rau lo lus nug no rau cov tswv tsev: Koj xav tias koj lub tsev tuaj yeem nqa tau ntau npaum li cas yog tias nws tau xauj tsev?

Zillow, txawm li cas los xij, tso siab rau kev hloov pauv txhua hli hauv cov npe ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev, xws li lwm tus uas xauj tsev lossis taug qab cov ntaub ntawv. Tias yog vim li cas Zillow's metrics (liab hauv qab) qhia txog kev thim rov qab hauv kev loj hlob, txawm tias CPI (txiv kab ntxwv) tau nce siab.

"Nws qhia tau hais tias tus nqi xauj tsev tseem ceeb tau tuav hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, tab sis nws kuj qhia tau hais tias txhua xyoo, nws tau nce siab thaum Lub Ob Hlis, raws li peb qhov Performance index," said Jeff Tucker, tus kws tshawb fawb laus ntawm Zillow, hauv xov tooj. .

Nws kuj tau hais tias nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob uas pom cov nqi xauj tsev ntawm CPI tseem nrawm dua txhua xyoo, txij li nws taug qab lwm yam. Tucker tau hais tias "Lawv tabtom sim ntes cov kev paub ntawm txhua tus neeg xauj tsev nyob ntawd," Tucker hais. "Tab sis feem coob ntawm cov neeg tsis tau tsiv mus nyob rau xyoo tas los, thiab tsis tas yuav kos npe rau daim ntawv xauj tsev tshiab ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov npe teev npe."

Tseeb, tsis txhob thim rov qab raws li qhov xav tau, CPI rau Lub Yim Hli xav tsis thoob Wall Street los ntawm nce mus rau 8.3% txhua xyoo tus nqi, propelled los ntawm kev nce hauv vaj tse, khoom noj thiab nqi kho mob. Kev nce toj lub vaj tse pom tau hais tias cov tswv tsev tseem tsis tau hnov ​​​​qhov sting ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis qis dua, txawm hais tias kev lag luam vaj tsev loj hlob tau fizzled nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm cov nqi qiv nyiaj nce ntxiv.

Cov khoom lag luam tau qis me ntsis hauv kev lag luam tsis zoo hnub Monday, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 0.64%,
S&P 500 qhov ntsuas
SPX,
+ 0.69%
thiab Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+ 0.76%
flipping ntawm kev nce thiab poob raws li cov tub ua lag luam tos rau Fed tus nqi txiav txim siab rau hnub Wednesday. 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag yield
TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.492%
yog ze li ntawm 3.5%.

Txawm hais tias ua ntej Fed xav tias hnub Wednesday yuav tua lwm tus nqi nce ntxiv, 30-xyoo tus nqi qiv tsev twb tau nce rov qab mus rau 6%. Nws yog ntse nce toj xyoo no slammed lub brakes ntawm roaring muag txhua hli thiab coj daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj poob rau lawv qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1999.

nyeem: Fed tau npaj los qhia peb tias 'kev mob' kev lag luam yuav raug kev txom nyem npaum li cas. Txawm li cas los xij, nws tseem yuav tsis qhia txog kev poob nyiaj txiag.

Schwab's Gordon tau hais tias thawj cov cim qhia ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev sputtering tuaj yeem pom hauv kev poob qis hauv cov neeg tsim tsev thiab cov ntaub ntawv kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, tab sis kuj los ntawm kev poob qis hauv cov khoom muag hauv tsev tsis ntev los no. Lub rub rov qab nws thiaj li xav tias yuav los ntshav rau hauv cov nqi vaj tse, nrog kev lag luam, thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau kev xauj tsev.

Gordon tau hais tias "Peb tseem nyob hauv thawj feem ntawm lub voj voog," Gordon hais. "Qhov ntawd yog lub ntsiab lus uas peb tab tom sim txhawm rau hauv tsev nrog kev nce nqi. Nws yuav siv sij hawm ntev dua rau cov kev lag luam ntawm txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag los ncaws tawm, txawm tias tib neeg cia siab tias nws yuav hloov pauv sai. "