Koj nyuam qhuav so haujlwm thiab koj lub hom phiaj-hnub nyiaj tau poob qis. Tam sim no koj ua dab tsi?

Morningstar qhia kuv qhov nruab nrab xws li "2020" lub hom phiaj-hnub nyiaj tau poob 11.6% ntawm nws tus nqi txij li pib xyoo. Qhov zoo ntawm cov ntaub ntawv poob yog mob txaus rau cov tub ntxhais hluas tseem khaws nyiaj rau xyoo golden uas yog xyoo tom ntej. Tab sis rau ib tus neeg uas nyuam qhuav tso tseg txoj haujlwm, thiab leej twg nyob ntawm lawv qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev khaws nyiaj khaws cia, nws tsis yog lus dag dab tsi.

Mari Adam, tus kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag ntawm Mercer Advisors hauv Boca Raton, Fla hais tias "Txawm hais tias cov phiaj xwm hnub yog qhov zoo, yooj yim, ib qho kev daws teeb meem rau ntau tus tub ua lag luam, lawv tsis tuaj yeem nkaum ntawm qhov tshwm sim hauv khw," "Nco ntsoov lub hom phiaj ua lag luam tsuas yog sib xyaw ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus. Hmoov tsis zoo, txog tam sim no hauv 2022, cov khw lag luam poob qis thiab cov lag luam nyiaj poob qis. "

Qhov poob ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov nyiaj no tsis yog vim lawv qhov kev ua tab sis lawv cov tswv yim tseem ceeb. Cov nyiaj no feem ntau hloov pauv ntawm "kev pheej hmoo" cov khoom lag luam mus rau "kev nyab xeeb" daim ntawv cog lus thaum koj nyob ze rau cov nyiaj laus. Thiab qhov ntawd feem ntau ua rau kev txiav txim siab, vim tias cov ntawv cog lus feem ntau muaj kev nyab xeeb. Txiv ntxawm Sam yuav them nws cov nqi, yog li yog tias koj muaj Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag koj yuav tau txais cov paj laum thiab tus thawj tswj hwm. Blue-chip corporations feem ntau ua li ntawd thiab.

Qhov teeb meem tiag? Yooj yim. Thaum nws los txog kev nqis peev, tus nqi tseem ceeb.

Thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no daim ntawv cog lus tau dhau los ua kim heev uas 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag sau ntawv
TUBMUSD 10Y,
2.970%
sported yields (cov paj laum) tsuas yog 1.6%, 30-xyoo Treasury bonds
TUBMUSD 30Y,
3.068%
yielded tsuas yog 2%, thiab tag nrho "inflation tiv thaiv" Treasury bonds
VAIPX,
+ 0.72%
tau lees tias yuav poob lub zog yuav khoom, txawm tias koj tuav lawv ntev npaum li cas.

Cov thawj coj nyiaj txiag yuav qhia rau koj tias rov qab mus rau xyoo 1920, 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag sau tau ua "qhov nruab nrab" txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm 5%. Thiab lawv hais yog lawm. Qhov ntawd yog vim qhov nruab nrab tus paj laum ntawm cov ntawv cog lus tau, zoo, txog 5%.

Yuav ua li cas koj thiaj li tau txais 5% txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm koj daim ntawv cog lus thaum nws tsuas muaj 2% paj laum? Koj ua tsis tau. Hmoov zoo sim.

Rov qab mus rau xyoo 1920s, 10-xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag muaj qhov nruab nrab khwv tau koj li 2.3% ntau dua li tus nqi nce nqi. Yuav ua li cas daim ntawv cog lus them 1.6% paj laum nce nyiaj nce los ntawm 2.3% ib xyoos? Teb: Tsuas yog tias kev nce nqi yog qhov tsis zoo, xyoo tom qab xyoo-ib yam uas tsuas yog tshwm sim thaum lub sij hawm qhov tob ntawm Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj.

(Thiab yog tias qhov ntawd tshwm sim, los ntawm txoj kev, hmoov zoo nrog koj cov khoom lag luam.)

Cov nyiaj khaws cia nyiaj txiag tau dhau los ua kim heev uas tsis yog muab "kev pheej hmoo-dawb rov qab," uas yog qhov uas cov tub ua lag luam feem ntau xav tau, lawv qhov tseem ceeb muab "tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo rov qab." Cov paj laum nyob deb li deb raws li qhov kev nce nqi ntawm kev nce nqi uas cov ntawv cog lus no yuav xaus rau koj cov nyiaj hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev yuav khoom tiag tiag. Lub caij no, yog tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txiav txim siab pib nce cov paj laum, cov ntawv cog lus uas twb muaj lawm yuav poob.

Tom qab tag nrho, leej twg xav kaw hauv 1.6% paj rau 10 xyoo tom ntej thaum cov nyiaj lag luam tam sim no yuav them koj 3% ib xyoos?

Tsis xav tias US daim ntawv cog lus lag luam index
AGG,
+ 0.40%
poob li ntawm 10%, daim ntawv 10-xyoo Treasury
IEF,
+ 0.71%
11%, thiab supposedly super "kev nyab xeeb" mus sij hawm ntev Treasury bonds
EDV,
+ 2.67%
ntau li 30%. Txawm tias kev nce nqi tiv thaiv Treasury bonds
Tswv yim,
+ 0.69%
tau poob txog 7% ntawm qhov nruab nrab.

Qhov tsuas yog xav tsis thoob txog lub xyoo no daim ntawv cog lus yog tias nws siv sijhawm ntev heev. Tej zaum nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm kawg Fed yuav thim rov qab lub tswv yim thiab nthuav tawm lwm qhov ntawm "kev daws teeb meem ntau." Muaj dua, tej zaum tsis yog.

Rau cov neeg daig hauv cov phiaj xwm hnub tim, ntawm no yog xov xwm zoo: Cov peev txheej qhib rau cov neeg so haujlwm zoo dua li lawv tau ua.

Piv txwv li, xyoo no daim ntawv cog lus tau xa cov paj laum ntau dua. Daim ntawv 10-xyoo tam sim no tau txais ze li 3% thiab lub sijhawm ntev Treasurys tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua 3%. (Cov ntawv cog lus zoo li cov saws: Tus nqi poob thaum cov txiaj ntsig lossis cov paj laum nce, thiab rov ua dua.)

Nws tseem tsis txaus siab piv rau kev nce nqi, tam sim no khiav saum 8%, tab sis tsawg kawg nws zoo dua li nws tau ua. (Thiab kev nce nqi yuav tsum tau los ntawm kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus yuav poob rov qab sai sai.)

Kev nqis peev-qib tuam txhab lag luam daim ntawv cog lus zoo dua
LQD,
+ 0.37%,
nrog cov paj laum nruab nrab ze li 5% raws li Federal Reserve cov ntaub ntawv.

Inflation-protected TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tam sim no them ntau dua li kev nce nqi. Long-term TIPS daim ntawv cog lus
LTPZ,
+ 2.54%
tau lees paub tias yuav yeej qhov kev nce nyiaj tau los ntawm ntau npaum li 0.6% ib xyoos rau 30 xyoo.

Tej zaum qhov xov xwm zoo tshaj plaws rau cov neeg so haujlwm uas ntsib kev kub ntxhov yog qhov ntawd Cov nqi nyiaj xyoo, tom qab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam, tau dhia nrawm heev rau xyoo no.

Annuities yog cov ntawv cog lus uas muab los ntawm cov tuam txhab pov hwm uas cog lus tias yuav them tus nqi tas mus li ib xyoos kom txog thaum koj tuag, txawm tias tag kis lossis xyoo 2100. Lawv yog cov khoom lag luam zoo rau cov uas sim nyem cov nyiaj laus feem ntau tawm ntawm lawv cov nyiaj khaws cia. Tus nqi them nyiaj ib xyoos rau, hais tias, tus poj niam hnub nyoog 70 xyoo tau dhia txog 10% hauv tsawg dua ib xyoos. Tej zaum lawv tseem yuav mus siab dua-tsis muaj leej twg paub-tab sis lawv tsim nyog saib.