Lub xyoo xaus rally? Bullish Tshuag-kev ua lag luam qauv tsim los sib tsoo nrog stagflation ntshai

Daws industrials
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tau dhia ze li ntawm 20% txij li thaum lub Cuaj Hlis lig qis, ntawm qhov pib ntawm qhov pib uas yuav kos ib qho tawm ntawm lub lag luam dais, thaum Nasdaq Composite tau muab tso rau hauv qhov kev ua tau zoo thaum cov tub ua lag luam tseem nyob hauv kev tos-thiab-saib crouch txog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov kev txiav txim siab rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag ntxiv, thiab cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm thaj chaw txawv teb chaws.

Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb tau txais kev nce qib hauv hnub so-ua rau luv luv Thanksgiving lub lim tiam, nrog Dow nce 1.8%, S&P 500 nce 1.5% thiab Nasdaq Composite nce 0.7%.

Thiab tom qab ntawd muaj lub caij nyoog kawg ntawm xyoo tailwind. Raws li Dow Jones Kev Lag Luam Cov Ntaub Ntawv, S&P 500 tau nce 71% ntawm lub sijhawm nyob rau hauv lub stretch los ntawm Thanksgiving mus rau xyoo tas los, raws li cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau 1950. Qhov nruab nrab, qhov loj-cap benchmark tau nce 1.8% nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd. . Cov ntaub ntawv zoo li no tuaj yeem yog cov lus qhia ntxhib rau cov tub ua lag luam, tab sis tsis muaj kev lees paub ntawm kev ua tau zoo hauv ib xyoos, raws li cov kab liab hauv daim duab qhia hauv qab no.

Thiab cov qauv zoo raws caij nyoog no tuaj yeem raug teeb tsa los cuam tshuam nrog kev ntshai tias 2023 tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb: qhov tshwm sim tsis zoo tshaj plaws ntawm txhua qhov kev lag luam thiab ib qho uas cov tub ua lag luam yuav nyuaj rau npaj rau. Stagflation txhais tau tias yog lub sijhawm ntawm kev lag luam qeeb qeeb ntxiv rau kev pheej hmoo siab nyiaj txiag, ib qho kev hloov pauv uas yuav tau ua hauv Asmeskas

Cov lus ceeb toom ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm sib sib zog nqus hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam ua ntej yog flashing tsis tu ncua hauv kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus, qhov chaw ua raws li kev sib kis ntawm 2-
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thiab 10-xyoo Treasury yields
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tseem nyob ze rho tawm 80 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus - txhais tau tias 10-xyoo tus nqi sawv ze li 0.8 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus qis dua 2-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig. Qhov nkhaus nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los tsoo nws feem ntau tob inverted txij thaum 1981. Xws li inversions yog pom raws li ib tug txhim khu kev qha recession indicator.

US kev loj hlob tig zoo nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib peb thiab kev nce nqi zoo li easing, raws li Lub Kaum Hli tus neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas nyob rau hauv uas tus nqi txhua xyoo tus nqi poob rau 7.7% los ntawm 8.2% yav dhau los. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi nce tsis tuaj sai txaus rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve kom tso tseg qhov kev nce qib siab, uas tuaj yeem ua rau lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws rau kev poob qis.

Mark Neuman, tus tsim ntawm Atlanta-based hais tias "Qhov tsis yooj yim rau cov tub ua lag luam hauv qhov xwm txheej stagflation yuav tsis meej pem txog qhov twg los nqis peev," said Mark Neuman, tus tsim ntawm Atlanta-based. Muaj peev txheej thiab tus creator ntawm lub ESG Orphans Index uas taug qab cov khoom lag luam nrog $ 3 trillion hauv kev lag luam ua lag luam ua ke.

Qhov ntawd yog kev thim rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam uas muaj yeej rau ntau lub xyoo no thiab "yog ib feem ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv cov kev lag luam no tau rov qab los ntawm kev ntshai ntawm kev ploj mus [ntawm] kev sib tw xyoo tas los," Jason Draho, tus thawj coj ntawm Kev faib khoom vaj khoom tsev rau Asmeskas ntawm UBS Global Wealth Management.

Ntxiv rau lub hli dhau los lub suab nrov hauv cov khoom lag luam tau yog Lub Kaum Hli muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau qhov muag ntxiv rau qhov tsis muaj zog tshaj qhov xav tau tus neeg tsim khoom-nqi qhiaSam Stovall, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev rau CFRA Kev Tshawb Fawb hauv New York tau hais tias, ob qho no qhia tau hais tias "kev lag luam tau tuav zoo, txawm hais tias muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv cov nqi luv luv," said Sam Stovall.

"Seasonality yuav muab me ntsis ntawm kev nqa mus rau cov khoom lag luam mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo, thiab kuv xav tias cov tub ua lag luam cia siab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nce mus txog 50 lub ntsiab lus nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab tej zaum tsis yog txhua yam uas tsis txaus ntseeg hauv lawv cov lus," Stovall tau hais los ntawm xov tooj. "Tam sim no, kev lag luam Tshuag yog xav tias peb tsis poob rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis lossis, yog tias peb muaj kev lag luam poob qis, nws yuav mob me thiab tias Fed yuav muaj feem cuam tshuam cov paj laum nyob rau tom kawg ntawm 2023."

Nws tau hais tias CFRA qhov kev xav txog kev lag luam hu rau Asmeskas kev lag luam kom nqaim qhov kev lag luam poob qis, tseem tseem poob rau hauv stagflation, ua raws li U-shaped, tsis yog V-shaped, rov qab los.

"Yog tias cov kev taw qhia ntawm kev nce nqi tseem qis qis - uas yog, kev nce nqi nce zuj zus tab sis tsis tu ncua poob - uas yuav txaus ua rau cov tub ua lag luam zoo nkauj hauv kuv lub tswv yim," Stovall hais rau MarketWatch. "Tsis tas li ntawd, peb cia siab tias yuav pom kev txhim kho hauv kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig kev loj hlob thaum peb tsiv mus rau 2023."

Raws li Stephen Suttmeier, tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees rau BofA Kev Ruaj Ntseg, 10 lub sijhawm ua lag luam kawg ntawm Lub Kaum Ob Hlis mus txog rau thawj 10 zaug ntawm Lub Ib Hlis tau ua pov thawj tias yog lub sijhawm muaj kev kub ntxhov rau S&P 500, ib zaug thiab ib zaug ntxiv: Qhov ntsuas tau nce 72% ntawm lub sij hawm ntawm qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 1.19% nyob rau hauv lub xeem 10 trading zaug ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis, nws hais tias. Lub zog ntawd zoo li nqa mus rau xyoo tshiab, nrog S&P 500 nce 64% ntawm lub sijhawm ntawm qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 0.72% hauv thawj 10 hnub ntawm Lub Ib Hlis. 

Mark Hulbert: 'Santa Claus rally' rau cov khoom lag luam zoo li xyoo no - tab sis koj yuav tsis qhib khoom plig kom txog thaum tom qab Christmas

Cov yam ntxwv ntawm lub caij nyoog kawg ntawm lub xyoo dhau los ua ke nrog cov qauv paub zoo uas tau pom cov khoom lag luam tso rau hauv lawv qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws tshaj li rau lub hlis stretch pib thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis.

Lub sijhawm rau lub hlis txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis zoo li tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyiam cov khoom lag luam thoob plaws ib puag ncig ntawm cov khoom lag luam, raws li tus kws tshaj lij Rob Anderson thiab tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Thanh Nguyen ntawm Ned Davis Research. NDR's Broad Cyclical Index, uas suav nrog kev lag luam, cov neeg siv khoom-kev txiav txim siab thiab cov khoom siv, tau ua tiav cov pob tawb tiv thaiv ua los ntawm staples, kev noj qab haus huv, kev siv hluav taws xob thiab kev sib txuas lus, qhov nruab nrab, nruab nrab ntawm rau lub hlis txij li xyoo 1972.

Lawv kuj tau hais tias cov laj thawj kev txhawb nqa rooj plaub rau kev sib tw xyoo kawg hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam, thaum ceeb toom tias "sab nraum cov tub rog tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau lub caij nyoog."

Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb rau lub lim tiam tom ntej suav nrog hnub Thursday tshaj tawm ntawm Fed qhov kev ntsuas nyiaj txiag uas nyiam tshaj plaws rau lub Kaum Hli thiab hnub Friday cov ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj tsis ua haujlwm rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis.

Hnub Monday, MarketWatch xam phaj St. Louis Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm James Bullard. Hnub Tuesday coj S&P Case-Shiller US tus nqi ntsuas hauv tsev, FHFA US tus nqi ntsuas tsev, thiab Kaum Ib Hlis tus neeg siv khoom-kev ntseeg siab.

Nco tsis tau: Fed's Bullard tau teeb tsa los tham txog kev nce nqi, cov paj laum hauv MarketWatch Q&A hnub Monday

Hnub Wednesday cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tshaj tawm suav nrog ADP daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog kev ua haujlwm, kev hloov kho rau lub quarter thib peb GDP, Chicago tus thawj tswj hwm kev yuav khoom, hloov tshiab ntawm kev qhib haujlwm thiab tawm haujlwm rau lub Kaum Hlis, thiab Fed's Beige Phau ntawv qhia. Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tseem tab tom hais lus ntawm Brookings Institution.

Hnub Thursday cov ntaub ntawv batch suav nrog cov ntawv thov tsis ua haujlwm txhua lub limtiam, Lub Kaum Hli tus nqi ntawm tus kheej-kev siv nyiaj index, S&P US manufacturing PMI, thiab ISM qhov kev lag luam index. Hnub Friday, Kaum Ib Hlis cov ntaub ntawv them nyiaj tsis yog ua liaj ua teb thiab cov nyiaj poob haujlwm raug tso tawm.