Puas yuav Warren Buffett so haujlwm? Yuav nrhiav dab tsi hauv nws tsab ntawv txhua xyoo.

Buffett kuj tau hais lus thuam cov neeg thuam los ntawm ib xyoos lossis ob xyoos dhau los, uas thaum lub sijhawm tau tshaj tawm tias nws yuav raug ntxuav tag nrho. Nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm lub khw muag nyuj thaum ntxov Lub Ib Hlis 2022, Berkshire Hathaway txoj kev taug qab 3-xyoo alpha nyob ntawm lossis ze rau txhua lub sijhawm qis ntawm rho tawm 12.3 txhua xyoo cov ntsiab lus feem pua ​​​​-raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim duab nrog. Txij thaum ntawd los lub tuam txhab txoj kev taug qab 3-xyoo alpha tau rov qab zoo siab thiab tam sim no tau sib koom ua ke hauv kab lus zoo.

Tsis tas li ntawd, thiab cia siab tias tsis tas yuav hais, Buffett cov ntaub ntawv mus sij hawm ntev tseem zoo heev. Rau 58 xyoo daim ntawv qhia hnub mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo tas los, Berkshire Hathaway Tshuag tau tuav lub S&P 500 los ntawm 10.0 ib xyoos ib zaug cov ntsiab lus (nrog cov nyiaj faib ua ke).

Txawm li cas los xij, kuv tseem muaj txoj cai zoo uas Buffett, tam sim no muaj hnub nyoog 92, yuav tsis nyob ntawm Berkshire Hathaway mus ib txhis. Txij li thaum nws qhov kev ua tau zoo tsis ntev los no qhia tau tias nws tsis tau poob nws qhov kov, ntau tus neeg ua lag luam tau txhawj xeeb tias, thaum nws so haujlwm, Berkshire Hathaway cov Tshuag yuav raug kev txom nyem. Ntau tus tau cia siab tias nws yuav siv lub sijhawm ntawm xyoo no Berkshire Hathaway daim ntawv tshaj tawm txhua xyoo los tham txog thaum nws npaj yuav hloov txoj kev kav rau Greg Abel, nws xaiv los ua tiav. (Lub tuam txhab tsis tau qhia tias thaum twg nws yuav tshaj tawm nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm txhua xyoo; kev nug tsis tau rov qab tam sim ntawd.)

Ntawm qhov tod tes, kuv xav tias nws yog ib qho kev nyab xeeb thawj koom ruam uas ntau tus neeg ua lag luam hauv caug yuav muag lawv cov Berkshire Hathaway shares yog tias Buffett tsis nyob ntawm lub tuam txhab lub luag haujlwm - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov xov xwm tau tshwm sim tam sim ntawd. Ntawm qhov tod tes, kuv xav tias kev muag khoom zoo li no yuav tsis raug cai. Gutsy cov tub ua lag luam yog li ntawd tej zaum yuav xav siv Berkshire Tshuag poob qis tom qab Buffett nqis los ua lub sijhawm los yuav ntau dua.

Yog vim li cas kuv ntseeg tias Berkshire Hathaway tuaj yeem ua tau zoo ib yam tom qab Buffett tsis yog thawj coj lub tuam txhab yog qhov kev xaiv cov khoom lag luam tau tshawb pom tias, hauv kev sim rov qab, tau ua raws li lub tuam txhab. Ua ntej no algorithm tau tshawb pom, Buffett txoj kev tua phom rau kev xaiv cov khoom lag luam zoo li tsis muaj tseeb thiab yog li tsis tuaj yeem muab luam tawm - txawm tias los ntawm ib tus neeg muaj peev xwm li Abel.

Cov kws tshawb fawb uas nrhiav pom cov txheej txheem no yog cov thawj coj ntawm AQR Capital Management: Andrea Frazzini, David Kabiller thiab Lasse Pedersen. Lawv txoj kev tshawb fawb qhia txog qhov algorithm no tau tshwm sim hauv Financial Analysts Journal hauv 2018, muaj cai "Buffett's Alpha” Txawm hais tias lawv cov algorithm yog qhov nyuaj, nws nyiam cov khoom lag luam nrog tus nqi qis-rau-phau ntawv-tus nqi sib piv, tau nthuav tawm hauv qab-nruab nrab volatility thiab yog los ntawm cov tuam txhab uas cov txiaj ntsig tau loj hlob ntawm qhov siab tshaj qhov nruab nrab thiab uas them tawm ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm lawv. cov nyiaj tau los raws li cov nyiaj tau los.

Qhov muaj nyob ntawm no algorithm qhia tias yav tom ntej, qhov tsis sib xws yog qhov zoo uas Abel yuav ua tau zoo li Buffett yuav muaj yog tias nws tseem khiav Berkshire Hathaway. Rau kev pom zoo, xav txog kev ua tau zoo txij li cov kws tshawb fawb txoj kev tshawb fawb thawj zaug tau pib nthuav tawm hauv cov voj voog kev kawm, thaum xyoo 2013; kuv sau ib kab lus hais txog nws hauv Wall Street Journal thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2013. Hauv kab ntawv ntawd kuv tau hais tshwj xeeb txog AQR cov nyiaj sib koom ua ke uas ua raws li cov kws tshawb fawb 'algorithm - AQR Loj Cap Defensive Style Fund
UAEIX,
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Txij li cov kem ntawd, cov nyiaj tau zoo sib xws Buffett qhov kev ua tau zoo, tau txais 11.7% txhua xyoo piv rau 11.6% rau Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett thiab dais lag luam

Lwm lub ntsiab lus uas koj yuav tsum tau saib rau hauv Buffett's sai-rau-tau-tso tawm txhua xyoo daim ntawv tshaj tawm yog nws qhov kev pom ntawm lub khw muag khoom lub zeem muag. Qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb hauv nws txoj cai, tau kawg, tab sis tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov tub ua lag luam Berkshire Hathaway. Qhov ntawd yog vim nws cov khoom lag luam nyiam ua lag luam tshaj plaws thaum lub lag luam dais.

Koj pom qhov no hauv daim ntawv qhia saum toj no: Buffett's 3-xyoo alpha nyiam raug kev txom nyem thaum lub sij hawm ua lag luam bull ntev. Ntxiv rau nws ua qhov tsis zoo nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm lub khw muag nyuj thaum ntxov 2022, Buffett's 3-xyoo alpha yav dhau los yog qhov tsis zoo heev thaum lub sijhawm nce nyiaj hauv internet npuas.

Qhov kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev lag luam dais thiab Buffett's alpha yog ib qho piv txwv ntawm nws cov lus qhia tsis zoo kom ntshai thaum lwm tus neeg siab hlob thiab siab hlob thaum lwm tus ntshai. Nws yuav nthuav kom pom seb nws puas xav tias lub lag luam dais xyoo tas los tau hloov nws cov lej hauv qhov no. Ib xyoos dhau los nws ntshai heev; tam sim no nws puas yuav siab hlob?