"Puas yog kev lag luam nyob hauv kev tswj hwm lossis nws puas tawm ntawm kev tswj hwm? Qhov ntawd yog lab-duas cov lus nug cov tub lag luam txuas ntxiv sib cav, "sums up CrackedMarket blogger Jani Ziedins.
Kom meej meej, qhov kev sib cav zaum kawg tau kov yeej - dua - tom qab Wall Street's hnub phem tshaj plaws hauv ob xyoos, thiab yav tom ntej hinting ntawm qhov mob ntxiv rau hnub Thursday. Ntawm cov gloomsters, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd ceeb toom txog qhov ua tau“lub caij ntuj sov ntawm qhov mob” - 45% poob los ntawm sab saum toj rau S&P 500 thiab 75% nqis rau Nasdaq.
Nyeem: Kev lag luam tsis tau ua zoo li no txij li xyoo 1981 - thiab ntawm no yog qhov ua tau zoo li cas
Tsis ntseeg, Wall Street tau ua ratcheting Tshuag forecasts qis dua hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no. Nyob rau sab ntawm optimists, JPMorgan's puas-stoic Marko Kolanovic tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees sab saum toj hais Bloomberg (hauv kev xam phaj ua ntej hnub Wednesday) tias cov khoom lag luam yuav "nce tawm ntawm lub qhov no," vim tias kev lag luam poob qis thiab kev ntshai stagflation yog overblown.
Tseeb, peb hu nruab hnub los ntawm Evercore cov kws tshaj lij hais tias kev lag luam tau nce mus rau qhov kev xav tias kev lag luam poob qis yog qhov kev txiav txim siab ua ntej. Lawv kuj hais tias kev ceeb ntshai, cov neeg lag luam muag khoom lag luam uas tau nyob tom qab qhov kev muag khoom no, yuav tsum ua kom siab sai sai vim tias cov neeg ua haujlwm tsis txaus ntshai (tseem).
"Hnub Thursday, peb yuav tau txais ib lub tswv yim seb qhov kev ua lag luam yog ib feem ntawm qhov tsis sib haum xeeb hauv qab txheej txheem, peb cov ntaub ntawv hauv paus, lossis seb qhov kev poob qis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau SPX 3,854, ua rau muaj kev lag luam capitulation," sau tseg Evercore pab pawg, coj los ntawm Julian Emanuel. .
Muab lawv txoj kev xav txog qhov tau tshwm sim nrog qhov kev muag khoom no, Emanuel thiab pab pawg tau sib cav tias kev lag luam tau raug ntes nyob rau hauv Fed "kev coj tsis ncaj," sib sau ua ke txawm hais tias hawkish hais los ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell, tom qab ntawd muab tag nrho rov qab rau ib hnub tom qab, hais txog qhov tshwm sim tom qab. lub rooj sib tham thaum ntxov-Lub Tsib Hlis Fed.
Dab tsi yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm no tsis yog kev lag luam nkag siab Fed lub hom phiaj, tab sis "txawm hais tias kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2022-23 yog zam tsis tau hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua nce nyiaj nce ntxiv, nrog rau tib qho kev paub dhau los yog Volcker Fed nruj (1971-81) mus rau qhov chaw uas muaj ntau yam kev lag luam. yog ib qho inevitability. "
Emanuel thiab pab pawg tsis xav tias Fed yuav tsum ua kom muaj kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis hais tias cov khoom lag luam tau coj zoo li nws ua.
“Kev sib txawv yog qhov tseem ceeb. Qhov kawg peb qhov kev lag luam uas tsis yog Recession Bear Markets tau poob qis ntawm qhov nruab nrab -21.3% - 2018 ib 'V' hauv qab, 2011 thiab 1998 ib 'W' - txawm tias tsis muaj npe ua 'tus neeg lis haujlwm' Xyooj. Qhov kawg peb qhov kev poob qis qis qis qis (2020, 2007-09, 2000-02) poob qis ntawm qhov nruab nrab -47.9%, "hais tias Evercore.
Panicky cov tub ua lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau sab khw muag khoom (lawv tau raug liam ua ntej), yuav tsum ua siab ntev, nws hais.
"Peb txuas ntxiv cia siab tias Cov Pej Xeem (uas cov kev cia siab ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog thiab
Cov ntawv txheeb xyuas kev noj qab haus huv) ua kom nws cov nuj nqis Margin kom tau txais txiaj ntsig rau qhov tsis sib xws / Kev tsis ncaj ncees ntawm kev ntxhov siab thiab kev tiv thaiv kev ua haujlwm, ua kom cov khoom ruaj khov nyob rau hnub tom ntej, "hais cov kws tshaj lij.
Lub buzz
Cisco Systems
CSCO,
yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev qhib ntawm nws qhov tsis muaj zog txij li thaum lig 2020 raws li Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tiv thaiv COVID-19 battered nws outlook.
Tom qab Walmart
WMT,
thiab Hom Phiaj
TSO,
downbeat tau tshwm sim lub lim tiam no, Kohl's
KSS,
poob qis ntawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los tsis muaj zog thiab txiav kev kwv yees, ib hnub tom qab ob tug thawj coj tawm mus. Bed Bath & Tshaj
MevB,
Tshuag tseem poob rau kev taw qhia tsis muaj zog los ntawm lig Wednesday.
Ib zaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws, Melvin Capital, kaw nws lub qhov rooj.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm xov xwm tsis muaj haujlwm nyob rau lub limtiam tshiab qhia tau tias nce 21,000, thaum Philly Fed daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev tsim khoom tau poob qis rau 2.6 hauv lub Tsib Hlis los ntawm 17.6 hauv lub hli dhau los. Kev muag khoom hauv tsev uas twb muaj lawm thiab cov cim qhia tseem ceeb tseem yuav los.
Ib case ntawm liab pox tau raug txheeb xyuas hauv Massachusetts, nrog cov tub ceev xwm tshawb fawb txog kev sib txuas rau tus kab mob tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim los ntawm kev sib kis ntawm cov teb chaws Europe.
Cov kev lag luam
stocks
DJIA,
COMP,
yog mus rau sab qab teb, nrog rau daim ntawv cog lus yields
TUBMUSD 10Y,
TUBMUSD 02Y,
roj
Qauv: CL00
nyiaj daus las
DXY,
thiab tag nrho qhov chaw crypto
BTCUSD,
tsis muaj zog. Kub
GC00,
yog nce ze li ntawm 1%.
Cov tickers
Cov no yog cov neeg tshawb nrhiav tshaj plaws ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov Eastern Time:
Daim phiaj qhia
Michael Kramer, tus tsim ntawm Mott Capital Markets, tab tom saib xyuas lub npe loj rau hnub Thursday - Apple
AAPL,
- thiab qhia cov tub ua lag luam ua ib yam.
"Yog tias cov khoom lag luam no rhuav tshem kev txhawb nqa ntawm $ 139, nws yuav tshwm sim rau tag nrho cov khoom lag luam. Qhov ntawd yuav tsim qhov qis qis rau Apple, kev ua txhaum cai ntawm kev txhawb nqa, thiab teeb tsa qhov poob mus txog $ 123. Kuv tsis pom yuav ua li cas tag nrho cov lag luam tsis ua raws li Apple qis dua ntawm lub sijhawm ntawd, "said Kramer.
Mott Capital
Random nyeem
Ib lub nroog Nyij Pooj nyob deb nroog cov nyiaj pab them nqi kho mob COVID-19 tau yuam kev xa mus rau tus txiv neej uas twv txiaj tag nrho.
Yav tas los Thawj Tswj Hwm George W. Bush ua ib tug loj heev Freudian plam.
Xav paub kom paub pib thaum ntxov thiab raug kho kom txog thaum qhib lub tswb nrov, tab sis sau npe tuaj ntawm no kom nws tau xa nws ib zaug rau koj lub npov email. Lub emailed yuav xa tawm thaum txog 7: 30 teev sawv ntxov.
Xav paub ntau ntxiv rau hnub tom ntej? Sau npe rau Lub Barron Hnub, tag kis sawv ntxov piav qhia rau cov tub ua lag luam, suav nrog kev tawm tswv yim tshwj xeeb los ntawm Barron thiab MarketWatch sau ntawv.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-market-drop-20-or-48-from-the-peak-heres-the-key-factor-says-this-strategist- 11652958716?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo