Cov nuj nqis tseem ceeb puas yuav tsim teeb meem raws li tus nqi nce?

Hauv 2022 cov paj laum tau nce siab, thiab yuav muaj ntau tus nqi nce mus los ntawm Fed. Qhov no tsis zoo li yuav cuam tshuam rau tsoomfwv Meskas cov nuj nqis nyob rau lub sijhawm ze, tab sis tuaj yeem nthuav tawm qhov teeb meem nyob rau xyoo tom ntej yog tias cov paj laum tseem nce siab.

Yog tias cov nqi yuav nyob ntawm ib puag ncig tam sim no, nws yuav kawg ua rau tsoomfwv siv nyiaj ntau ntxiv mus rau them cov paj laum ntawm lub teb chaws cov nuj nqis. Tus nqi paj ntxiv ntawd tuaj yeem ua rau ob npaug ntawm tsoomfwv siv nyiaj rau cov qub tub rog, lossis ib nrab ntawm US cov peev nyiaj tiv thaiv.

Tsis ntev los no Trends Nyob rau hauv cov nuj nqis rau GDP

Txij li thaum muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag xyoo 2008 Tsoomfwv Meskas cov nuj nqis rau tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws (GDP) tau kwv yees li ob npaug ntawm 63% mus rau 121%. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau tib lub sijhawm cov paj laum tau poob qis tsis tu ncua.

Qhov no txhais tau hais tias txawm tias Asmeskas muaj nuj nqis ntau dua li kaum xyoo dhau los, tus nqi paj ntawm cov nuj nqis piv rau GDP tau dav dav. Cov paj laum qis feem ntau offset cov nuj nqis siab dua.

Rising paj paj

Tam sim no uas tej zaum yuav hloov. Cov paj laum tau rov qab mus rau qhov chaw uas lawv nyob ua ntej 2008 thiab tsoomfwv cov nuj nqis piv rau GDP tau nce ob npaug txij li thaum ntawd. Qhov no yuav tsis ua rau cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas nce tam sim ntawd. Qhov ntawd yog vim qhov hnyav nruab nrab ntawm US cov nuj nqis nyob nruab nrab ntawm tsib mus rau rau xyoo. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias tsoomfwv Meskas cov nuj nqis yuav tsis them rov qab rau kev lag luam cov paj laum ib hmos, tab sis tsoomfwv cov nqi paj laum tuaj yeem nce tsis tu ncua hauv kaum xyoo no.

Piv txwv li cov paj laum tam sim no ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas cov nuj nqis nyob ib ncig ntawm ob feem pua ​​​​ntawm qhov nruab nrab rau xyoo 2022. Yog tias cov paj laum ntawd nce ob npaug rau plaub feem pua, uas yog qhov tsim nyog xav txog qhov uas tsoomfwv Meskas cov nuj nqis lag luam nyob rau theem nrab hnub no, qhov ntawd yuav yog. ib qho tseem ceeb ntxiv rau tsoomfwv kev siv nyiaj.

Kev siv nyiaj ob npaug ntawm cov paj laum, yuav ntxiv tus nqi kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm Medicare pob nyiaj siv. Qhov ntawd yog tswj tau, tab sis tsis tseem ceeb.

Tsis tas li ntawd Fed npaj yuav nce tus nqi ntxiv, piv txwv li yog tias cov paj laum yuav raug ntaus rau feem pua ​​​​ ces kev siv nyiaj paj rau cov nuj nqis hauv lub tebchaws tuaj yeem sib tw siv nyiaj Social Security, qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm tsoomfwv kev siv nyiaj. Cov kev lag luam tam sim no cia siab tias Fed yuav tsum tsis txhob nce tus nqi zoo ua ntej rau feem pua ​​​​tau raug ntaus thiab tsis paub meej tias peb tseem yuav pom tsib feem pua ​​​​tus nqi ntawm qhov luv luv ntawm qhov nkhaus, tab sis nws qhia tau tias yog Fed tiv thaiv kev nce nqi ntau dhau nws tuaj yeem tshwm sim. teeb meem rau kev tswj hwm tsoom fwv cov peev nyiaj.

Keeb kwm Precedent

Txawm li cas los xij, ob npaug ntawm cov paj laum piv rau GDP yuav tsis yog qhov tsis tau muaj dua. Nyob rau thaum ntxov 1990s tus nqi paj yog nyob ib ncig ntawm peb feem pua ​​​​ntawm GDP, lossis ob theem tam sim no. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nuj nqis rau GDP hauv Asmeskas tau poob qis me ntsis txij li muaj kev sib kis los ntawm qhov siab ntawm 135%. Tam sim no kev nce nqi siab tuaj yeem ua rau tus nqi qis dua ntxiv vim tias kev nce nqi txhais tau tias GDP loj hlob sai dua li cov nuj nqis, vim tias tus nqi ntawm cov nuj nqis hauv lub tebchaws tau kho ntau hauv cov ntsiab lus nominal.

Kev txiav txim siab rau Western Economies

Tseem qhov no yuav dhau los ua qhov teeb meem rau kev lag luam nyob rau xyoo tom ntej yog tias cov paj laum tseem nyob rau theem siab tam sim no piv rau keeb kwm tsis ntev los no. Kev paub txog UK tsis ntev los no tau qhia txog qhov txaus ntshai thaum kev lag luam pib poob kev ntseeg siab hauv txoj haujlwm nyiaj txiag ntawm tsoomfwv. Qhov no kuj yog ib qho teeb meem dav dav. Ntau lub tebchaws tsim kev lag luam suav nrog Canada thiab ntau lub tebchaws Europe muaj nuj nqis siab rau GDP hnub no thiab tau pom cov paj laum nce hauv kev ua lag luam tam sim no.

Yog lawm, peb yuav nyob ze rau sab saum toj ntawm cov paj laum tam sim no, txhais tau hais tias qhov teeb meem no yuav ploj mus yog tias cov paj laum poob qis thaum kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv, tab sis yog tias cov paj tau nce ntxiv hauv 2023, ces qhov teeb meem no yuav cuam tshuam rau ntau yam. tsoom fwv sab hnub poob thiab cov uas nqis peev hauv lawv cov nuj nqis hauv tebchaws.