Puas yog 2023 thaum kawg yog xyoo zoo los yuav tsev? Nyeem qhov no ua ntej txiav txim siab.

Puas yog 2023 yuav yog xyoo zoo rau cov neeg yuav khoom? Nws nyob ntawm koj qhov chaw nyob thiab koj cov nyiaj tau los, Odeta Kushi, tus thawj coj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag ntawm First American, hais rau MarketWatch.

Lwm tus tsis pom qhov zoo. "2023 yuav tsim los ua lag luam tsis muaj leej twg. Tsis yog cov neeg muag khoom lossis cov neeg yuav khoom yuav tsis pom qhov tseem ceeb, "George Ratiu, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag ntawm Realtor.com, hais rau MarketWatch. 

"Rau cov neeg muag khoom, qhov tseeb yog tias cov nqi uas lawv vam tias yuav tau txais raws li ob peb xyoos dhau los tsuas yog tsis muaj lawm," Ratiu piav qhia. "Rau cov neeg yuav khoom, cov nqi tau nce siab heev hauv ob xyoos dhau los uas txawm tias 10% mus rau 20% luv nqi yuav tsis tau txais lawv cov khoom lag luam."

Nov yog li cas cov kws tshaj lij pom kev lag luam vaj tsev ua si hauv 2023.

Xov xwm zoo: Ntau lub tsev muag khoom 

Cov kws tshaj lij feem ntau pom zoo tias cov khoom muag - tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsev muaj muag - yuav nce xyoo 2023.

"Peb yuav muaj cov khoom muag ntau dua li ob xyoos dhau los," Ratiu hais. Tab sis cov tsev muag khoom nyob hauv khw ntev dua, nws hais ntxiv.

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Tus Lwm Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws Taylor Marr tau hais tias lub tsev ib txwm tau zaum ntawm kev ua lag luam tau li ob lub hlis tam sim no. "Muaj ntau lub tsev nyob ntawd tsuas yog tos tus neeg yuav khoom," nws hais.

Cov neeg tsim khoom kuj tseem tso cov tsev tshiab rau hauv kev ua lag luam thiab yog rub tawm tag nrho cov nres los txhawb kev muag khoom.

Hauv qee lub khw tawm sab hnub poob, cov neeg yuav khoom tuaj yeem cia siab tias "ntau cov khoom muag ntau dua li ua ntej muaj kev sib kis," Jeff Tucker, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus ntawm Zillow
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hais rau MarketWatch.

Kev lag luam zoo li Phoenix thiab Las Vegas, uas pom muaj kev muag khoom thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis, tam sim no tab tom ntsib cov tsev muag khoom, Tucker tau hais. Nws tau sau tseg tias "Muaj ntau lub tsev nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab qhov ntawd ua rau txo qis ntawm tus nqi," nws hais.

Hauv feem ntau ntawm cov khw loj, muaj ob peb qhov laj thawj uas cov khoom muag qis. 

"Muaj cov khoom muag tsawg dua vim tias cov tswv tsev tsis kam tso lawv cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tsawg," Lawrence Yun, tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag thiab tus thawj coj loj ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm National Realtors Association, hais rau MarketWatch.

"Feem ntau cov neeg tau txais nyiaj rov qab rau hauv kwv yees li 3% tus nqi hauv 2020 thiab 2021," nws hais ntxiv. "Kev muag thiab [tom qab ntawd] yuav lub tsev tshiab txhais tau tias muaj 6.5% nqi tsev, yog li txawm tias kev lag luam hauv tsev loj thiab tus nqi yuav txhais tau tias yuav them nqi tsev ntau dua."

Qee tus tswv tsev yog tig mus rau lub khw muag khoom es tsis txhob cuam tshuam nrog ib puag ncig muag tawv.

Xov xwm zoo: Kev sib tw tsawg dua, ua tsaug rau kev sib tw ua tsov rog 

Ntau tus tswv tsev yuav tsis txaus siab nco txog cov hnub uas muaj kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw ntawm kev sib tw hnyav thiab mus dhau cov peev nyiaj tsuas yog kaw kev sib cog lus hauv tsev. 

Muab qhov poob qis hauv kev muag vaj tsev, kev sib tw ua tsov rog tuaj yeem dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb xyoo 2023.

Tucker hais tias, "Qhov kev yuav khoom ... yuav zoo dua rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv 2023," tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thawj ib nrab xyoo, piv rau thawj ib nrab xyoo 2022.

Kev yuav khoom muaj xws li cov tsev xaiv los ntawm, kev sib tw rau cov tsev, raug yuam kom mus rau saum toj sau npe tus nqi, "thiab qee qhov lwm yam ntxiv ntawm qhov ntawd, zoo li xav tau nrawm vim tias txhua lub tsev tau poob rau hauv ib lub lis piam," Tucker hais.

Raws li kev ntxhov siab, ntau tus neeg yuav khoom tau zam cov xwm txheej xws li nyiaj txiag, kev ntsuam xyuas lossis kev tshuaj xyuas, nws hais ntxiv. Cov kev ntxhov siab no tau yooj yim vim kev ua lag luam tau txias. 

"Vim tias kev ua lag luam tau muag ntau heev, tag nrho cov kev yuav khoom yuav muaj txiaj ntsig zoo dua rau cov neeg yuav khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog piv rau kev lag luam frenzied ntawm thawj ib nrab xyoo dhau los," Tucker hais. "Yog li ntawd yog xov xwm zoo heev rau cov neeg yuav khoom."

Raws li ib tug Realtor.com daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas los ntawm lub caij nplooj zeeg, ib qho kev loj hlob ntawm cov neeg muag khoom tau hais tias cov neeg yuav khoom tab tom thov kev kho kom zoo tom qab kuaj xyuas hauv tsev. 

Kev lag luam vaj tsev yog "tilting deb ntawm qhov chaw sib tw hypercompetitive uas cov neeg muag khoom zoo nkauj hu ua kev txhaj tshuaj rau ib qho uas cov neeg yuav khoom muaj ntau dua. kev sib tham lub zog"Ratiu sau tseg. 

Cov xov xwm phem: Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav ruaj khov tab sis yuav tsis nqis los ntau 

Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce siab tshaj xyoo tas los, tab sis cov neeg yuav khoom tuaj yeem cia siab tias lawv yuav ruaj khov thiab txawm tias poob me ntsis.

Qhov nce hauv cov nqi yog zaj dab neeg vaj tsev nyob rau xyoo 2022, raws li Asmeskas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve slammed lub brakes ntawm ib puag ncig tus nqi qis, ua rau qiv nyiaj ntau dua.

Nov yog li cas cov nqi tau nce ntau xyoo dhau los, ua tau zoo dua ob npaug thiab txawm tias ntaus 7% thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022: 

“Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yog qhov nyuaj heev rau kev kwv yees. Tab sis muaj laj thawj ntseeg tias peb yuav pom cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj pib ruaj khov rau xyoo tom ntej raws li kev nce nqi nce siab me ntsis," Kushi hais tias, "yog li ntawd yuav pab tau rau ... kev them taus thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom." 

Kushi tau hais tias qhov kev pom zoo kwv yees yog rau cov nqi kom xaus 2023 ntawm thaj tsam 6%. 

Lub koom haum Mortgage Bankers, lub sijhawm no, cia siab tias cov nqi poob rau 5.4% thaum kawg ntawm 2023.

"Peb tau pom cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nce siab heev xyoo no, ntxiv kwv yees li ntawm $ 800 txog $ 1,000 ib hlis ntxiv rau cov nyiaj them txhua hli yooj yim piv rau ib xyoos dhau los," Ratiu hais.

Cia siab tias cov nqi yuav nce siab, nws hais ntxiv, uas txhais tau hais tias yog tias cov nyiaj tau los tsis nce ntau, ces "tus nqi ntawm kev yuav khoom hauv tsev yuav kim." 

Cov xov xwm phem: Cov nqi tsev yuav poob qis hauv qee lub khw tab sis tseem yuav kim

Muab qhov dhia hauv cov paj laum, ntau tus neeg yuav khoom yav tom ntej tau nyob ntawm sab nraud. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov hnyav ntawm tus nqi tsev.

Tab sis tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav txo qis - lossis kev sib tsoo vaj tse.

Mark Zandi, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Moody's Analytics, hais rau MarketWatch tias nws cia siab tias cov nqi tsev hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav poob ntau npaum li 10% qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau ob mus rau peb xyoos tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, koj yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias cov nqi no kuj tau nce los ntawm 40% txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis. 

"Kuv tsis xav tias US cov nqi tsev yuav poob," Zandi ntxiv. "Yog lawm, yog tias kev lag luam raug kev lag luam poob qis, tom qab ntawd cov nqi tsev poob yuav tseem ceeb dua. Tab sis txawm li ntawd los, kev sib tsoo zoo li kev ncab. " 

Kev muag ntawm cov tsev uas twb muaj lawm tau poob qis, uas tau pib ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov rau cov nqi tsev. Raws li NAR, lub tus nqi muag khoom nruab nrab ntawm lub tsev uas twb muaj lawm tau nqis los los ntawm qhov siab tshaj ntawm $ 410,000 nyob rau lub Rau Hli mus txog $ 370,700 thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis.

Ratiu tau sau tseg tias ntau tus neeg muag khoom tau siv cov nqi txiav kom tau txais lawv lub tsev muag. Nws tau hais tias "Nyem nees nkaum feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov tsev teev nyob rau hauv Realtor.com tau txo tus nqi thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis," nws hais. "Yog li kuv cia siab tias yuav yog ib feem ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv 2023, uas yog xov xwm zoo." 

Redfin tau hais tias nws cov txheeb cais tau ntau dua lossis tsawg dua tib lub tebchaws, tab sis hauv qee lub khw, kev txiav nqi tau nce siab dua thiab dav dua, hauv qee qhov chaw cuam tshuam ntau dua ib nrab ntawm cov tsev.

"Tsis tsuas yog cov neeg yuav khoom muaj peev xwm muab tau raws li nug [nqi] hnub no, tab sis lawv tseem tuaj yeem tau txais cov qhab nia los ntawm cov neeg muag khoom los tso rau lawv cov nqi kaw, thiab tseem them cov ntsiab lus kom coj lawv cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj qis," Marr hais.

Yog li qhov twg yog qhov qeeb qeeb ua si tawm? Kushi tau hais tias "Tebchaws Sab Hnub Poob tab tom ntsib qhov muaj zog tshaj plaws hauv tsev-nqi txo qis thiab tus nqi poob qis los ntawm qhov siab tshaj," Kushi hais. “Tshwj xeeb, Zoom
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kev lag luam uas pom qhov kev loj hlob loj tshaj plaws nyob rau lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis. "

Yog li hu ua Zoom kev lag luam suav nrog Salt Lake City, Utah; Boise, Idaho; thiab lwm lub nroog thib ob nrov uas cov neeg tsiv mus ua haujlwm nyob deb.

Tab sis thaum cov nqi yuav tsis nce ntxiv, lawv tseem kim, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov nyiaj tau los tsis tau nce ntau npaum li cas, txawm tias nyob hauv nruab nrab ntawm kev nce nqi siab.

Raws li ib tug Lub kaum hli ntuj ceeb toom los ntawm Dallas Federal ReserveTxawm hais tias muaj kev ua lag luam muaj zog, "feem ntau ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm tau pom lawv cov nyiaj ua haujlwm poob qis dua tom qab kev nce nqi," nrog rau qhov nruab nrab poob ntawm 8.6% nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2022.

Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj poob rau 6% thiab cov nqi tsev kuj poob, "txawm tias cov nyiaj tau los nyob twj ywm, qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias kev them taus yuav txhim kho txheeb ze rau hnub no," Kushi sib cav. "Yog li muaj rooj plaub uas yuav tsum tau ua kom them taus yuav zoo dua thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tom ntej."

Cov kab hauv qab: Kev them taus yuav txhim kho - tab sis nws tseem yuav yog kev lag luam tsis sib npaug 

Cov nqi tsev poob qis thiab cov nqi tsev yuav ua rau cov tsev pheej yig dua nyob rau xyoo 2023, tab sis tsis ntau. Thiab thaum kawg, lub khw yuav tsis nyiam cov neeg yuav khoom lossis cov neeg muag khoom.

Marr hais tias, "Cov paj laum siab dua tau nqus lub zog tawm ntawm cov neeg muag khoom," Marr tau hais tias, "tab sis nws tsis tsim nyog uas cov neeg yuav khoom yuav pom nws yog qhov yeej loj vim tias cov paj laum tseem xav tau li cas. Yog li nws yog me ntsis ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua. " 

Rau 2023, Marr muaj ib qho lus qhia rau txhua tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev nyob ntawd.

Marr tau hais tias "Nco lub qhov muag rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab qhov ntawd suav nrog qhov tshwm sim nrog tus nqi qiv nyiaj," Marr hais. "Yog tias lawv poob los ntawm ib nrab taw tes, qhov ntawd tuaj yeem ua rau qhov sib txawv ntawm koj cov nyiaj them txhua hli yog pheej yig dua."

Thiab tsis txhob txo cov tsev uas tau nyob hauv khw ntev dua li niaj zaus. Tej zaum yuav muaj qee lub pob zeb diamond hauv qhov ntxhib.

Realtor.com yog ua haujlwm los ntawm News Corp cov chaw haujlwm Move Inc., thiab MarketWatch yog ib chav tsev ntawm Dow Jones, kuj yog ib feem ntawm News Corp.

Tau txais kev xav ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev? Hu rau MarketWatch tus neeg sau xov xwm vaj tsev nyob Aarthi Swaminathan ntawm [email tiv thaiv]