Kev nce nqi yog khiav ntawm 8% lossis siab dua, nyob ntawm seb koj suav nws li cas (thiab leej twg suav). Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau pom meej meej. Thiab kev lag luam tau pom meej meej panicking ib yam nkaus.
Yog li ntawm no, txiv ntxawm Sam xav muab koj thawj koom ruam.
Yuav ua li cas koj xav wager koj cov nyiaj khwv tau los nyuaj nyiaj laus uas kev nce nqi yuav vau nyob rau hauv luv luv txiav txim, thiab vau kom deb li deb, sai npaum li ntawd nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos tom ntej no. nruab nrab yuav tsawg dua 2.4%?
Nyeem: Market Snapshot
Huag, thiab ua kom cov thawj koom ruam nthuav dav ntxiv, ntawm no yog qee cov ntsiab lus ntxiv: Yog tias koj yeej qhov thawj koom ruam, thiab qhov nyiaj nce nruab nrab los ntawm qis dua 2.4% ntawm tam sim no thiab 2027, koj yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig me me - tab sis yog tias koj poob qhov thawj koom ruam koj yuav poob, thiab poob loj.
Lub suab ntawd li cas?
Kev sim siab?
Yog hais tias qhov no suab tag nrho rau koj, koj tsis nyob ib leeg. Nws suab zoo nkauj nutty rau kuv thiab. Tab sis ntawm no yog tus sting nyob rau hauv tus Tsov tus tw: tej zaum koj twb tau ua qhov thawj koom ruam no, txawm tsis paub nws. Qhov tseeb, qhov ntau ceev faj thiab pheej hmoo-averse koj yog, qhov zoo li koj yuav tsum tau noj cov thawj koom ruam no.
Yikes!
Kuv tab tom tham txog kev nqis peev hauv US Treasury bonds.
Nrog kev nce nqi nce mus rau ob tus lej, 5 xyoo Treasury bonds
FVX,
+ 1.01%
yog them 4% paj thiab 10 xyoo Treasurys
NTX,
+ 2.37%
3.7%. Daim ntawv cog lus ntev tshaj plaws, 30 xyoo, yog them 3.6% paj.
Cov no tej zaum yuav los yog tsis ua pov thawj los ua kev twv txiaj, nyob ntawm seb yuav ua li cas ntxiv nrog kev nce nqi thiab kev lag luam. Txhua yam uas yuav tsum tau hais txog kev kwv yees tau ua los ntawm Casey Stengel: "Tsis txhob ua kwv yees, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hais txog yav tom ntej. "
Tab sis nyob rau hauv qhov tshwj xeeb no peb muaj ib tug txawv txawv puzzle: Txawm hais tias ib txwm Treasury daim ntawv cog lus muab cov paj laum uas nyuam qhuav hais, ib tug parallel txheej ntawm Treasury bonds muab lwm cov nyiaj paj laum nrog kaw nyob rau hauv guarantees tiv thaiv kev nce nqi pheej yig. Thiab cov nqi saib ... zoo, weird.
Yog li hu ua TIPS daim ntawv cog lus, uas sawv cev rau Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag-tiv thaiv kev nyab xeeb
Tswv yim,
-0.47%,
yog cov khoom lag luam niche uas tau muab los ntawm US Treasury uas tuaj nrog tib qhov kev lav phib xaub tiv thaiv tsis tu ncua raws li US Treasury bonds ib txwm muaj, tab sis nrog cov nqi thiab cov paj laum uas tau hloov pauv mus rau tus account rau kev nce nqi. (Lub tshuab yog lub siab-bogglingly nyuaj uas txhua qhov kev sim piav qhia txog kev ua haujlwm sab hauv yuav tsis meej pem ntau dua qhov teeb pom kev zoo. Txaus nws hais tias yog tias koj yuav daim ntawv cog lus TIPS thiab tuav nws kom loj hlob, koj yuav tau txais tus nqi nce ntxiv txhua xyoo ntxiv. los yog rho tawm qhov kev txiav txim siab "yield tiag," nyob ntawm tus nqi koj them thaum koj yuav nws).
Tam sim no yog tias koj yuav 5 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj tuaj yeem kaw tus paj laum li ntawm 1.6% ib xyoos ntxiv rau kev nce nqi. Yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab 0% nyob rau 5 xyoo tom ntej, koj yuav khwv tau 1.6% ib xyoos. Yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab 10%, koj yuav khwv tau li 11.6%. Thiab li ntawd. Koj tau txais daim duab.
Zaj dab neeg zoo ib yam li qhov ntev ntawm TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj yuav. Yog tias koj yuav 10 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj yuav khwv tau nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv 1.4% ib xyoos, thiab yog tias koj yuav 30 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj tuaj yeem khwv tau li qub.
Tej zaum TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav ua pov thawj tias yog thawj koom ruam zoo tshaj 5 lossis 10 xyoo tom ntej lossis ntev dua. Tej zaum tsis yog. Tab sis, lej, tib txoj kev uas lawv tuaj yeem ua pov thawj tias yog zuj zus thawj koom ruam tshaj li niaj zaus Treasury bonds yog tias kev nce nqi tuaj rau hauv tiag tiag, tsawg heev. Thiab kuv txhais tau tias nruab nrab inflation, pib tam sim no.
Li no tus "thawj koom ruam" uas kuv pib tsab xov xwm no.
Tsib xyoos TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav yog qhov zoo dua thawj koom ruam tshaj li 5 xyoos ib txwm Treasurys tsuas yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab tsawg dua 2.4% nyob rau 5 xyoo tom ntej. Ditto 10 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus thiab 10 xyoo Treasurys. Rau qhov tshwm sim, kev nce nqi tsis yog yuav tsum poob xwb. Nws yuav tsum tau tawg, thiab zoo nkauj nrawm, ib yam nkaus.
Thiab, txawm tias phem dua, leej twg yuav cov Treasurys li niaj zaus es tsis yog TIPS tau txais kev pheej hmoo asymmetric. Yuav 5 Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag yielding 4%, thiab yog tias kev nce nyiaj poob qis hauv qhov kev txiav txim luv luv koj tuaj yeem, hauv txoj kev xav, kawg ua tej zaum 1% ib xyoos ntau dua li koj xav tau ntawm TIPS daim ntawv cog lus. Tab sis yog tias kev nce nqi nce siab, lossis txawm tias (lub ntuj ceeb tsheej txwv tsis pub) zuj zus, tus neeg yuav daim ntawv cog lus nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua tau txais hosed. Koj yuav raug kaw hauv 4% ib xyoos rau 5 xyoos thaum cov neeg siv khoom nce los ntawm, hais, 8% lossis txawm li cas los xij.
Muaj cov cuab yeej siv yooj yim uas piav qhia qhov txawv txawv no. Cov tuam txhab loj, cov neeg ua lag luam tsis txaus ntseeg, thiab cov kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag txhawj xeeb txog lawv tus kheej kev lav phib xaub instinctively yuav cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag li niaj zaus: Lawv suav tias yog lub neej ntawd, "kev pheej hmoo tsis muaj nyiaj" tsis muaj laj thawj zoo dua li qhov lawv ib txwm ua, thiab yog qhov loj tshaj plaws thiab feem ntau. kua kev nyab xeeb nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kev foob rau muab koj cov neeg siv khoom rau hauv Treasurys.
cov tag nrho kev ua lag luam rau Treasurys ib txwm muaj ntau dua 4 npaug ntawm qhov loj ntawm TIPS kev lag luam, thiab kev lag luam txhua hnub yog qhov loj heev.
Tsis tas li ntawd, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yeej tsis xav tau ua ntej tam sim no. Tsoom fwv Askiv tau tsim lub tswv yim thaum ntxov xyoo 1980, tom qab kev puas tsuaj loj ntawm xyoo 1970, thiab peb tus txiv ntxawm Sam tsis mus txog rau thaum xyoo 1990s. Txog tam sim no, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tsuas muaj nyob rau lub sijhawm txuas ntxiv ntawm deflation, thaum lawv tau ua pov thawj OK tab sis tsis zoo dua li niaj zaus, cov paj laum ruaj khov. Thaum muaj kev ntxhov siab tsis ntev los no thaum lub sijhawm deflationary, xws li 2008-9 kev sib tsoo thiab Covid sib tsoo ntawm 2020, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus poob.
Tej zaum nws yuav nyuaj rau muag cov ntawv pov hwm hluav taws rau cov neeg uas tsis tau ntsib hluav taws thiab tsis tau pom ib qho, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov ntawv pov hwm hluav taws kub nws tus kheej yog cov khoom tshiab uas tsuas yog tsim los ntev tom qab qhov kev sib cav loj kawg, yog li nws tsis tau them nyiaj tawm. Tsis tas li ntawd inflation insurance.
Lub lim tiam dhau los kuv nug Steve Russell txog qhov no. Russell yog tus thawj coj peev ntawm Ruffer & Co., lub tuam txhab tswj hwm nyiaj txiag hauv London uas ua tiav kev zam ntawm 2000-3 thiab 2007-9 kev lag luam meltdowns. (Ruffer tau txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi ntau dua kaum xyoo thiab tau nqis peev ntau hauv kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi: Ua qhov koj xav tau.)
Hu rau TIPS tau txais txiaj ntsig "tsis tuaj yeem nkag siab," Russell hais tias nws xav tias "kev ua lag luam myopia thiab clinging rau yav dhau los orthodoxies." Raws li nws tau hais tseg, kev lag luam nyiaj txiag qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi tau nyob dav dav txhua xyoo "zoo li qhov kev nce nqi tam sim no tsis tau tshwm sim." Cov tub ua lag luam Bond ntseeg siab tias Fed tuaj yeem ua tau thiab yuav ua "txhua yam nws yuav siv" los coj kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau 2% lub hom phiaj qub, thiab yuav ua tau sai sai.
Russell tsis ntseeg tias yuav tshwm sim. Nws xav tias Fed tab tom nrhiav kev lag luam tus nqi ntawm kev taug kev nce siab heev. Nws kuj xav tias lub ntiaj teb tam sim no muaj kev nce nqi ntau dua li qhov nws tau ua, vim muaj ntau yam, suav nrog Ukraine, kev tsim khoom, thiab kev txhawb zog ntawm kev ua haujlwm.
(Qhov zoo siab, thaum nyob hauv tebchaws Askiv kuv pom tias ntau xyoo kev cog lus ntawm tes ntawm no tam sim no suav nrog kev nce nqi nce ntxiv, nrog cov nqi nce los ntawm kev nce nqi ntxiv rau ob peb feem pua txhua xyoo. Ua ntej Covid lockdowns, cellular daim ntawv cog lus feem ntau txhais los ntawm deflation, tsis yog kev nce nqi.)
TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tau ua tau zoo heev txog rau tam sim no xyoo no, txawm tias kev nce nqi nce ntxiv. Qhov no yog qhov tseeb vim tias kev ua lag luam tseem tab tom cia siab tias yuav muaj kev poob qis hauv kev nce nqi. Tsis tas li ntawd, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tau pib xyoo dhau los: Lawv tau kim heev uas ntau qhov tau lees tias "tsis zoo tiag tiag tawm los," txhais tau tias kev nce nqi rho tawm me ntsis, kom txog rau thaum kev loj hlob.
Bonds zoo li sawsaws: Thaum tus nqi poob, cov txiaj ntsig lossis cov paj tau nce. Lub plunge ntawm TIPS tus nqi xyoo no tau ua rau ntau fatter, thiab tam sim no zoo, tiag yields.
Ib qho kev ceeb toom yog tias TIPS cov nqi tuaj yeem poob mus ntxiv, tsav cov txiaj ntsig tiag tiag txawm tias siab dua. Xws li kev nce nqi-hloov cov txiaj ntsig tau siv rau sab qaum teb ntawm 2% thiab qee zaum kuj siab dua. Yog li yog tias koj xav txog TIPS yog qhov zoo tam sim no, tsis muaj dab tsi los tiv thaiv lawv los ua qhov zoo dua yav tom ntej.
Cov neeg uas nqis peev hauv TIPS los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke yuav tsum lees txais qhov kev hloov pauv no raws li ib feem ntawm qhov kev pom zoo. TIPS tseem yuav poob ntxiv yog tias kev lag luam tsis ntev los no txuas ntxiv mus. Ntawm qhov tod tes, yog tias koj yuav ib tus neeg TIPS daim ntawv cog lus (muaj los ntawm ib tus broker) thiab tuav lawv kom loj hlob, qhov kev hloov pauv yuav tsis muaj teeb meem ntau. Koj yuav tau txais kev lees paub "tiag tiag," kev nce nqi-kho tawm tawm los ntawm cov ntawv cog lus.
Ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm US TIPS daim ntawv cog lus (tab sis tsis yog txawv teb chaws) yog tias lawv yeej ib txwm lav kom tau txais kev txhiv dim ntawm lub ntsej muag lossis tus nqi sib npaug thaum lawv loj hlob, txawm tias muaj kev poob nyiaj loj heev. Yog li nws feem ntau ua rau kev txiav txim siab yuav ib tus neeg daim ntawv cog lus ze rau tus nqi yog tias koj ua tau.
Incidentally, vim yog cov teeb meem se, feem ntau nws yog qhov zoo dua qhov muaj peev xwm ua tau tus kheej TIPS hauv ib tus as khauj xws li IRA (Roth lossis ib txwm siv) lossis 401 (k).
Nco ntsoov Stengel cov lus hais, Kuv tsis ua qhov twv ua ntej. Tab sis kuv tau yuav TIPS daim ntawv cog lus hauv kuv tus kheej IRA thiab 401 (k), tsis yog vim kuv xav ua kev kwv yees txog kev nce nqi tab sis vim kuv tsis xav ua kev kwv yees txog kev nce nqi. Kuv pom tsis muaj laj thawj los ua qhov pheej hmoo, asymmetric bets ntawm qhov tshwm sim sai sai hauv kev nce nyiaj txiag los ntawm Treasurys li niaj zaus thaum kuv tuaj yeem tau txais tus nqi me me tab sis lav cov paj laum nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm kev nce nqi, txawm li cas los xij nws hloov mus ua.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-gamble-your-savings-on-a-quick-collapse-in-inflation-11664202818?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Vim li cas TIPS tej zaum yuav yog qhov chaw ntse los nres qee cov nyiaj tam sim no
Kev nce nqi yog khiav ntawm 8% lossis siab dua, nyob ntawm seb koj suav nws li cas (thiab leej twg suav). Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau pom meej meej. Thiab kev lag luam tau pom meej meej panicking ib yam nkaus.
Yog li ntawm no, txiv ntxawm Sam xav muab koj thawj koom ruam.
Yuav ua li cas koj xav wager koj cov nyiaj khwv tau los nyuaj nyiaj laus uas kev nce nqi yuav vau nyob rau hauv luv luv txiav txim, thiab vau kom deb li deb, sai npaum li ntawd nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos tom ntej no. nruab nrab yuav tsawg dua 2.4%?
Nyeem: Market Snapshot
Huag, thiab ua kom cov thawj koom ruam nthuav dav ntxiv, ntawm no yog qee cov ntsiab lus ntxiv: Yog tias koj yeej qhov thawj koom ruam, thiab qhov nyiaj nce nruab nrab los ntawm qis dua 2.4% ntawm tam sim no thiab 2027, koj yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig me me - tab sis yog tias koj poob qhov thawj koom ruam koj yuav poob, thiab poob loj.
Lub suab ntawd li cas?
Kev sim siab?
Yog hais tias qhov no suab tag nrho rau koj, koj tsis nyob ib leeg. Nws suab zoo nkauj nutty rau kuv thiab. Tab sis ntawm no yog tus sting nyob rau hauv tus Tsov tus tw: tej zaum koj twb tau ua qhov thawj koom ruam no, txawm tsis paub nws. Qhov tseeb, qhov ntau ceev faj thiab pheej hmoo-averse koj yog, qhov zoo li koj yuav tsum tau noj cov thawj koom ruam no.
Yikes!
Kuv tab tom tham txog kev nqis peev hauv US Treasury bonds.
Nrog kev nce nqi nce mus rau ob tus lej, 5 xyoo Treasury bonds
+ 1.01%
+ 2.37%
FVX,
yog them 4% paj thiab 10 xyoo Treasurys
NTX,
3.7%. Daim ntawv cog lus ntev tshaj plaws, 30 xyoo, yog them 3.6% paj.
Cov no tej zaum yuav los yog tsis ua pov thawj los ua kev twv txiaj, nyob ntawm seb yuav ua li cas ntxiv nrog kev nce nqi thiab kev lag luam. Txhua yam uas yuav tsum tau hais txog kev kwv yees tau ua los ntawm Casey Stengel: "Tsis txhob ua kwv yees, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hais txog yav tom ntej. "
Tab sis nyob rau hauv qhov tshwj xeeb no peb muaj ib tug txawv txawv puzzle: Txawm hais tias ib txwm Treasury daim ntawv cog lus muab cov paj laum uas nyuam qhuav hais, ib tug parallel txheej ntawm Treasury bonds muab lwm cov nyiaj paj laum nrog kaw nyob rau hauv guarantees tiv thaiv kev nce nqi pheej yig. Thiab cov nqi saib ... zoo, weird.
Yog li hu ua TIPS daim ntawv cog lus, uas sawv cev rau Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag-tiv thaiv kev nyab xeeb
-0.47% ,
Tswv yim,
yog cov khoom lag luam niche uas tau muab los ntawm US Treasury uas tuaj nrog tib qhov kev lav phib xaub tiv thaiv tsis tu ncua raws li US Treasury bonds ib txwm muaj, tab sis nrog cov nqi thiab cov paj laum uas tau hloov pauv mus rau tus account rau kev nce nqi. (Lub tshuab yog lub siab-bogglingly nyuaj uas txhua qhov kev sim piav qhia txog kev ua haujlwm sab hauv yuav tsis meej pem ntau dua qhov teeb pom kev zoo. Txaus nws hais tias yog tias koj yuav daim ntawv cog lus TIPS thiab tuav nws kom loj hlob, koj yuav tau txais tus nqi nce ntxiv txhua xyoo ntxiv. los yog rho tawm qhov kev txiav txim siab "yield tiag," nyob ntawm tus nqi koj them thaum koj yuav nws).
Tam sim no yog tias koj yuav 5 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj tuaj yeem kaw tus paj laum li ntawm 1.6% ib xyoos ntxiv rau kev nce nqi. Yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab 0% nyob rau 5 xyoo tom ntej, koj yuav khwv tau 1.6% ib xyoos. Yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab 10%, koj yuav khwv tau li 11.6%. Thiab li ntawd. Koj tau txais daim duab.
Zaj dab neeg zoo ib yam li qhov ntev ntawm TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj yuav. Yog tias koj yuav 10 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj yuav khwv tau nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv 1.4% ib xyoos, thiab yog tias koj yuav 30 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus koj tuaj yeem khwv tau li qub.
Tej zaum TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav ua pov thawj tias yog thawj koom ruam zoo tshaj 5 lossis 10 xyoo tom ntej lossis ntev dua. Tej zaum tsis yog. Tab sis, lej, tib txoj kev uas lawv tuaj yeem ua pov thawj tias yog zuj zus thawj koom ruam tshaj li niaj zaus Treasury bonds yog tias kev nce nqi tuaj rau hauv tiag tiag, tsawg heev. Thiab kuv txhais tau tias nruab nrab inflation, pib tam sim no.
Li no tus "thawj koom ruam" uas kuv pib tsab xov xwm no.
Tsib xyoos TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav yog qhov zoo dua thawj koom ruam tshaj li 5 xyoos ib txwm Treasurys tsuas yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab tsawg dua 2.4% nyob rau 5 xyoo tom ntej. Ditto 10 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus thiab 10 xyoo Treasurys. Rau qhov tshwm sim, kev nce nqi tsis yog yuav tsum poob xwb. Nws yuav tsum tau tawg, thiab zoo nkauj nrawm, ib yam nkaus.
Thiab, txawm tias phem dua, leej twg yuav cov Treasurys li niaj zaus es tsis yog TIPS tau txais kev pheej hmoo asymmetric. Yuav 5 Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag yielding 4%, thiab yog tias kev nce nyiaj poob qis hauv qhov kev txiav txim luv luv koj tuaj yeem, hauv txoj kev xav, kawg ua tej zaum 1% ib xyoos ntau dua li koj xav tau ntawm TIPS daim ntawv cog lus. Tab sis yog tias kev nce nqi nce siab, lossis txawm tias (lub ntuj ceeb tsheej txwv tsis pub) zuj zus, tus neeg yuav daim ntawv cog lus nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua tau txais hosed. Koj yuav raug kaw hauv 4% ib xyoos rau 5 xyoos thaum cov neeg siv khoom nce los ntawm, hais, 8% lossis txawm li cas los xij.
Muaj cov cuab yeej siv yooj yim uas piav qhia qhov txawv txawv no. Cov tuam txhab loj, cov neeg ua lag luam tsis txaus ntseeg, thiab cov kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag txhawj xeeb txog lawv tus kheej kev lav phib xaub instinctively yuav cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag li niaj zaus: Lawv suav tias yog lub neej ntawd, "kev pheej hmoo tsis muaj nyiaj" tsis muaj laj thawj zoo dua li qhov lawv ib txwm ua, thiab yog qhov loj tshaj plaws thiab feem ntau. kua kev nyab xeeb nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kev foob rau muab koj cov neeg siv khoom rau hauv Treasurys.
cov tag nrho kev ua lag luam rau Treasurys ib txwm muaj ntau dua 4 npaug ntawm qhov loj ntawm TIPS kev lag luam, thiab kev lag luam txhua hnub yog qhov loj heev.
Tsis tas li ntawd, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yeej tsis xav tau ua ntej tam sim no. Tsoom fwv Askiv tau tsim lub tswv yim thaum ntxov xyoo 1980, tom qab kev puas tsuaj loj ntawm xyoo 1970, thiab peb tus txiv ntxawm Sam tsis mus txog rau thaum xyoo 1990s. Txog tam sim no, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tsuas muaj nyob rau lub sijhawm txuas ntxiv ntawm deflation, thaum lawv tau ua pov thawj OK tab sis tsis zoo dua li niaj zaus, cov paj laum ruaj khov. Thaum muaj kev ntxhov siab tsis ntev los no thaum lub sijhawm deflationary, xws li 2008-9 kev sib tsoo thiab Covid sib tsoo ntawm 2020, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus poob.
Tej zaum nws yuav nyuaj rau muag cov ntawv pov hwm hluav taws rau cov neeg uas tsis tau ntsib hluav taws thiab tsis tau pom ib qho, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov ntawv pov hwm hluav taws kub nws tus kheej yog cov khoom tshiab uas tsuas yog tsim los ntev tom qab qhov kev sib cav loj kawg, yog li nws tsis tau them nyiaj tawm. Tsis tas li ntawd inflation insurance.
Lub lim tiam dhau los kuv nug Steve Russell txog qhov no. Russell yog tus thawj coj peev ntawm Ruffer & Co., lub tuam txhab tswj hwm nyiaj txiag hauv London uas ua tiav kev zam ntawm 2000-3 thiab 2007-9 kev lag luam meltdowns. (Ruffer tau txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi ntau dua kaum xyoo thiab tau nqis peev ntau hauv kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi: Ua qhov koj xav tau.)
Hu rau TIPS tau txais txiaj ntsig "tsis tuaj yeem nkag siab," Russell hais tias nws xav tias "kev ua lag luam myopia thiab clinging rau yav dhau los orthodoxies." Raws li nws tau hais tseg, kev lag luam nyiaj txiag qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi tau nyob dav dav txhua xyoo "zoo li qhov kev nce nqi tam sim no tsis tau tshwm sim." Cov tub ua lag luam Bond ntseeg siab tias Fed tuaj yeem ua tau thiab yuav ua "txhua yam nws yuav siv" los coj kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau 2% lub hom phiaj qub, thiab yuav ua tau sai sai.
Russell tsis ntseeg tias yuav tshwm sim. Nws xav tias Fed tab tom nrhiav kev lag luam tus nqi ntawm kev taug kev nce siab heev. Nws kuj xav tias lub ntiaj teb tam sim no muaj kev nce nqi ntau dua li qhov nws tau ua, vim muaj ntau yam, suav nrog Ukraine, kev tsim khoom, thiab kev txhawb zog ntawm kev ua haujlwm.
(Qhov zoo siab, thaum nyob hauv tebchaws Askiv kuv pom tias ntau xyoo kev cog lus ntawm tes ntawm no tam sim no suav nrog kev nce nqi nce ntxiv, nrog cov nqi nce los ntawm kev nce nqi ntxiv rau ob peb feem pua txhua xyoo. Ua ntej Covid lockdowns, cellular daim ntawv cog lus feem ntau txhais los ntawm deflation, tsis yog kev nce nqi.)
TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tau ua tau zoo heev txog rau tam sim no xyoo no, txawm tias kev nce nqi nce ntxiv. Qhov no yog qhov tseeb vim tias kev ua lag luam tseem tab tom cia siab tias yuav muaj kev poob qis hauv kev nce nqi. Tsis tas li ntawd, TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tau pib xyoo dhau los: Lawv tau kim heev uas ntau qhov tau lees tias "tsis zoo tiag tiag tawm los," txhais tau tias kev nce nqi rho tawm me ntsis, kom txog rau thaum kev loj hlob.
Bonds zoo li sawsaws: Thaum tus nqi poob, cov txiaj ntsig lossis cov paj tau nce. Lub plunge ntawm TIPS tus nqi xyoo no tau ua rau ntau fatter, thiab tam sim no zoo, tiag yields.
Ib qho kev ceeb toom yog tias TIPS cov nqi tuaj yeem poob mus ntxiv, tsav cov txiaj ntsig tiag tiag txawm tias siab dua. Xws li kev nce nqi-hloov cov txiaj ntsig tau siv rau sab qaum teb ntawm 2% thiab qee zaum kuj siab dua. Yog li yog tias koj xav txog TIPS yog qhov zoo tam sim no, tsis muaj dab tsi los tiv thaiv lawv los ua qhov zoo dua yav tom ntej.
Cov neeg uas nqis peev hauv TIPS los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke yuav tsum lees txais qhov kev hloov pauv no raws li ib feem ntawm qhov kev pom zoo. TIPS tseem yuav poob ntxiv yog tias kev lag luam tsis ntev los no txuas ntxiv mus. Ntawm qhov tod tes, yog tias koj yuav ib tus neeg TIPS daim ntawv cog lus (muaj los ntawm ib tus broker) thiab tuav lawv kom loj hlob, qhov kev hloov pauv yuav tsis muaj teeb meem ntau. Koj yuav tau txais kev lees paub "tiag tiag," kev nce nqi-kho tawm tawm los ntawm cov ntawv cog lus.
Ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm US TIPS daim ntawv cog lus (tab sis tsis yog txawv teb chaws) yog tias lawv yeej ib txwm lav kom tau txais kev txhiv dim ntawm lub ntsej muag lossis tus nqi sib npaug thaum lawv loj hlob, txawm tias muaj kev poob nyiaj loj heev. Yog li nws feem ntau ua rau kev txiav txim siab yuav ib tus neeg daim ntawv cog lus ze rau tus nqi yog tias koj ua tau.
Incidentally, vim yog cov teeb meem se, feem ntau nws yog qhov zoo dua qhov muaj peev xwm ua tau tus kheej TIPS hauv ib tus as khauj xws li IRA (Roth lossis ib txwm siv) lossis 401 (k).
Nco ntsoov Stengel cov lus hais, Kuv tsis ua qhov twv ua ntej. Tab sis kuv tau yuav TIPS daim ntawv cog lus hauv kuv tus kheej IRA thiab 401 (k), tsis yog vim kuv xav ua kev kwv yees txog kev nce nqi tab sis vim kuv tsis xav ua kev kwv yees txog kev nce nqi. Kuv pom tsis muaj laj thawj los ua qhov pheej hmoo, asymmetric bets ntawm qhov tshwm sim sai sai hauv kev nce nyiaj txiag los ntawm Treasurys li niaj zaus thaum kuv tuaj yeem tau txais tus nqi me me tab sis lav cov paj laum nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm kev nce nqi, txawm li cas los xij nws hloov mus ua.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-gamble-your-savings-on-a-quick-collapse-in-inflation-11664202818?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo