Friday hnub mini-rally Txawm li cas los xij, nws tau ua phem tawm qhov ntawd raws li kuv tus qub CNN npoj yaig Jack Cafferty tau hais. Koj tau pom cov lej thiab lawv tsis zoo nkauj: Qhov pib phem tshaj plaws rau ib xyoos rau cov khoom lag luam txij li xyoo 1939. Cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis loj tau poob trillions ntawm cov nqi lag luam. Saib ntawm koj cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj zoo li ncaws pob hauv plab.
Lub carnage tsis sib npaug, tab sis. Thaum Dow (^ DJI) poob qis 11% xyoo rau hnub tim, (kev ua lag luam tau nce siab thaum Lub Ib Hlis 3 - yooj yim rau thawj hnub ua lag luam ntawm lub xyoo), tech-hnyav NASDAQ (^ IXIC) yog tawm ntawm pob txha-crushing 25%.
Raws li yog tias tsis yog qhov phem txaus, nyob hauv tsev thiab meme stocks, SPACS thiab oh kuv tus tswv, crypto yog phem dua. Piv txwv li: Peloton (PTON) tau tawm 60% ntawm ib qho, SPACS poob qis 43% ntawm qhov nruab nrab, Thiab Bitcoin tau poob qee qhov 55% los ntawm nws lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj.) Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias muaj qee txoj hauv kev rau kev npau taws.
Risky bets tau pounded tshaj plaws.
Muaj pes tsawg ntawm peb yuav cov khoom ci ntsa iab, tsuas yog kom hlawv? Hloov pauv, pes tsawg ntawm peb tau maj nrawm mus yuav Dow Chevron, Honeywell lossis P&G? Cov qub tau nce 43% xyoo dhau los (Warren Buffett khaws qee qhov), thiab thaum HON thiab PG yog down xyoo mus rau hnub tim, nws tsuas yog los ntawm ib tug lej. Tab sis tsis yog, peb yuav tsum ya siab. Thiab tam sim no peb poob hnyav.
Hais txog Buffett, Kuv yuav tsum luag tsuas yog yuav ua li cas cov xwm txheej classic no tau ua rau nws thiab Berkshire shareholders. Raws li kuv tau sau tseg tsis ntev los no, Raws li nrog suav tsis txheeb npuas thiab manias yav dhau los, Berkshire taug qab kev ua lag luam, ua rau lwm tiam neeg ntawm naysayers hais tias Buffett tau poob nws qhov kev nqis peev. Tsis yog!
Ib puag ncig tshiab nyiam pab pawg sib txawv ntawm cov khoom lag luam
Kev piav qhia luv luv ntawm yog vim li cas lub khw thiaj li coj nws mus rau ntawm lub puab tsaig: Qhov kev pheej hmoo kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, Putin qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm Ukraine, ntxiv rau kev nce siab ntawm kev ntseeg siab thiab kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tag nrho cov no yog tsim txom cov saw hlau thiab ua rau muaj nyiaj nce ntxiv. Lub caij no, Fed tab tom nce nqi thiab txo nws cov peev txheej los tiv thaiv kev lag luam los ntawm overheating.
Kuv tsis tau hais tias tag nrho cov no yuav ua phem rau cov khw muag khoom mus ib txhis, tab sis qhov tsawg kawg nkaus qhov chaw tshiab no yuav nyiam ib pawg sib txawv ntawm cov khoom lag luam, xws li cov neeg tsim khoom roj thiab roj, thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom thiab muag hauv Asmeskas. , piv txwv li. Ib lub cim cim ntawm lub lim tiam no: Saudi Aramco tau tshaj Apple ua lub tuam txhab muaj txiaj ntsig tshaj hauv ntiaj teb.
"Raws li Fed nce tus nqi, muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau nyob ib puag ncig txawm tias cov ntaub ntawv hauv paus tsis yog rau kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2022, nws zoo li dhau mus, xyoo 2023 thiab dhau mus," nug Sonali Pier, tus thawj coj ntawm PIMCO thiab tus thawj coj ua lag luam. . "Thiab yog vim li cas peb thiaj li pom qee cov tub ua lag luam pivot los ntawm cyclicals mus rau qhov tsis yog-cyclicals, thiab muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog cov tuam txhab uas lawv muaj cov lag luam qis dua, thiab qhov ntawd yuav pom tias nws nyuaj rau kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi. Thiab yog li ntawd, koj tuaj yeem pom tias muaj qhov nyiam rau cov npe tiv thaiv. "
Tracie McMillion, tus thawj coj ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev faib cov cuab yeej cuab tam rau Wells Fargo, hais rau Yahoo Finance. "Thiab peb tau thim rov qab rau peb txoj kev pheej hmoo txog tam sim no xyoo no. Peb tau txais kev saib xyuas ntau dua hauv kev sib npaug ntawm peb cov khoom vaj khoom tsev faib khoom, thiab peb thaj chaw. Peb tab tom tilting ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas Peb tilting ntawm lub kaus mom loj- thiab nruab nrab thiab deb ntawm me me. "
Rov qab mus rau Putin ib pliag, nws tsuas yog ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo-tawm, raws li lawv hais ntawm Phab ntsa Street, thiab poob qis thaum koj muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb nrog nukes hinting ntawm Ntiaj Teb Tsov Rog Peb. Leej twg xav ua txhua yam giddy nrog kev loj hlob cov khoom lag luam muab qhov ntawd?
Puas yog peb mus rau kev lag luam?
Kuv nkag siab tias qhov no tuaj yeem tig ib ncig ntawm lub dime thiab tej zaum Friday yog qhov pib ntawm qhov ntawd. Tab sis hais tias tsis yog. Puas yog kev lag luam meltdown thiab nce nyiaj nce ntxiv ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis? Tsis tas li. Txhua yam xwm txheej tsis zoo xws li cov khoom lag luam swoons thiab nce nqi, nrog rau cov nqi roj poob siab thiab, (raws li peb tau pom), kev sib kis tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam. Tab sis nws tsis yog inevitable. Piv txwv li, tsis muaj kev sib tsoo ntawm xyoo 2010, lossis lub lag luam dais ntawm Lub Yim Hli 2011, lossis kev lag luam muag tawm ntawm Lub Yim Hli 2015, lossis 19.73% kev lag luam poob rau lub caij nplooj zeeg xyoo 2018 tau ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis.
Qhov ze tshaj plaws corollary rau peb cov quandary tsis ntev los no tej zaum yuav yog 2000 tech npuas bursting thiab tom qab recession ntawm lub peb hlis ntuj 2001 txog Kaum ib hlis 2001. Raws li tau sau tseg, Tshuag lag luam tsoo feem ntau tsis muaj txaus cuam tshuam rau crater tag nrho kev lag luam, tab sis lub 2000 tshuab- up ua. Thiab tau kawg tias kev lag luam poob qis dua los ntawm kev tawm tsam ntawm 9/11.
Tab sis tej zaum peb yuav muaj ntau yam exogenous tseem ceeb nyob rau lub sijhawm no (COVID, Putin, cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab kev nce nqi.) Txhua yam ntxiv rau kev lag luam poob ntau tshaj li qhov txaus ua rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb cog lus.
Txawm li cas los xij, nws zoo li peb yuav pom qee qhov kev xam pom hauv lub caij tsis zoo siab no. Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF tau rov zoo siab rau hnub Friday tab sis tseem qis dua 54% xyoo no thiab tsis ntev los no tawm ntau dua. 75% los ntawm nws qhov siab thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2021. Ntoo tsis ntev los no inflows txawm li cas los xij tau muaj zog tshaj tawm, thiab tsis ntev los no nws tau snapping txog kev nyuaj siab ntawm Coinbase (NPAJ).
Tom qab ntawd muaj Tiger Ntiaj Teb, uas tau tshaj tawm tias raug ntaus los ntawm $ 17 nphom hauv kev poob xyoo rau hnub tim, tshem tawm txog ob feem peb ntawm nws cov txiaj ntsig vim nws tau tsim nyob rau xyoo 2001. Raws li FT Lwm cov nyiaj, xws li Coatue Management, khiav los ntawm lub npe hu ua Tiger Cubs, (cov thawj coj nyiaj txiag uas ib zaug ua haujlwm rau Julian Robertson's Tiger Management) tau tshaj tawm kuj raug ntaus vim lawv tau larded rau cov npe nyob hauv tsev xws li Peloton thiab Zoom (ZM).
Thiab los ntawm Silicon Valley, Crunchbase qhia uas tseem ceeb VC Andreessen Horowitz qhov loj ya IPOs tam sim no, zoo, tsis ntau:
"Ntawm Andreessen's 17 cov tuam txhab lag luam uas tau mus rau pej xeem ntawm thawj qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm $ 1 nphom lossis ntau dua hauv kwv yees li 18 lub hlis dhau los, tag nrho tab sis ib qho tau ua lag luam qis dua lawv cov nqi muab. Thiab txawm tias ib qho outlier - Airbnb - yog nqis los ntawm nws thawj hnub kaw nqi, "Crunchbase sau tseg.
Cov kab hauv qab: Kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem tua rov qab txhua lub sijhawm, tab sis qhov no tsis zoo li lub tiaj-vanilla dip rau kuv.
Tsab ntawv no tau hais tawm nyob rau hauv Hnub Vas Xaum Luv Tawm Tsam Hnub Tsib lub Tsib Hlis 14, 2022. Tau txais cov lus qhia thaum sawv ntxov tau ncaj qha rau koj lub inbox txhua hnub Monday txog Friday thaum 6:30 sawv ntxov ET. Sau npe yuav ua
Los ntawm Andy Serwer, editor-in-chief ntawm Yahoo Finance. Ua raws nws hauv Twitter: @serwer ua
Nyeem cov xov xwm tshiab nyiaj txiag thiab lag luam los ntawm Yahoo Finance
Ua raws li Yahoo Finance Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, LinkedIn, Thiab YouTube
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-this-is-no-plain-vanilla-dip-112010464.html