Vim li cas Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam sib tw zoo li zoo li lub khw muag nyuj tshiab dua li tus dais thaws rau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam no

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau mob siab rau ntau yam kev ntsuas ntawm kev lag luam dav - lossis pes tsawg cov khoom lag luam tau koom nrog kev nce lossis nqis.

Clissold thiab Nguyen tau sau tseg tias qhov kev tawm tsam uas ua raws Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lub Xya hli ntuj 27 lub rooj sib tham xov xwm tau tsim ib khub ntawm qhov tsis tshua muaj "nrhiav qhov siab" cov cim: thawj, feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsoo 20-hnub tshiab siab tau nce siab tshaj 55% thawj zaug txij li. Lub Rau Hli 2020; thib ob, qhov piv ntawm 10-hnub nce mus rau 10-hnub poob qis tau nce mus rau 1.9 thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2021. Cov kev txav tuaj tom qab 10: 1 nce hnub rau S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam ua ntej lub Xya Hli.

Lub S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.56%
txog hnub Wednesday qhov kaw tau dhia 13.3% los ntawm nws lub Rau Hli 16 qis. S&P 500 tau nce 1.6% rau hnub Wednesday, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 1.29%
ua tiav nrog nce ntau dua 400 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 1.3%.

Breadth-thrust indicators yog tsim los tsis tshua muaj, tab sis lub luag hauj lwm loj hlob ntawm kev pauv pauv nyiaj, algorithmic trading thiab lwm yam tau nce lawv zaus hauv 13 xyoo dhau los, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau tseg. Clissold thiab Nguyen tau hais tias lawv tseem muab cov cim tseem ceeb tab sis xav tau "kev ntseeg siab tab sis txheeb xyuas" txoj hauv kev.

Raws li qhov kev hloov tshiab kawg no, lawv tau sau tseg tias kev sib tw ua ntej tawm ntawm lub Peb Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis qis ua rau ob qho kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws rau txhua qhov. "Qhov tseeb tias txhua qhov ntawm peb qhov ntsuas tau raug rho tawm haujlwm thaum Lub Xya Hli tsis ntxov xyoo 2022 yog qhov hloov pauv uas tsim nyog sau cia," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau.

Cov kev sib tw ua ntej, tau kawg, ua pov thawj tias yog lub taub hau cuav. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias cov lus nug tseem ceeb rau cov tub ua lag luam yog seb qhov kev nce qib tsis ntev los no tsuas yog ib qho ntawm cov kev sib tw ua tsis tiav hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam lossis cov theem pib ntawm kev lag luam bull tshiab, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau lees paub.

Lawv pom tias peb qhov taw qhia - feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm 21-hnub tshiab siab, feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm 63-hnub tshiab siab, thiab feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov khoom lag luam siab dua lawv qhov nruab nrab ntawm 50-hnub, yog siab dua tsis yog tsuas yog dais kev lag luam rally medians, tab sis tus tshiab bull market medians ib yam nkaus.

Clissold thiab Nguyen tau hais tias NDR's "Big Mo Daim Kab Xev," ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov lag luam me hauv kev nce siab, sawv hauv nruab nrab ntawm tus dais-rally nruab nrab thiab tus tshiab bull market median.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev teeb tsa kev lag luam tam sim no taug qab cov kev txhim kho uas tau pom tom qab qis qis hauv 2009, 2011 thiab 2016, tab sis muaj zog tshaj qhov pib ntawm ntau lub khw muag nyuj los ntawm lig 1980s txog rau thaum ntxov 2000s rau feem ntau qhov dav, lawv hais.

Lub Big Mo Daim Kab Xev yog ib qho los saib xyuas kev pom zoo ntxiv, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais. Ib qho kev nce ntxiv hauv lub lis piam tom ntej yuav pom nws koom nrog lwm qhov kev ntsuas hauv kev ua "ua kom pom tseeb zoo ib yam nrog lub voj voog loj dua li kev sib tw dais-kev lag luam," lawv sau.