Vim li cas cov khw muag khoom lag luam tau ntsib kev lag luam poob nyiaj txiag

Kev lag luam khw muag khoom tau tawm tsam qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev lag luam poob qis tom qab lub hlis poob qis hauv kev tsim kho cov haujlwm.

Yuav muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv cov khw muag khoom muaj kev ntxhov siab pib tom qab lub xyoo no, cov kws tshaj lij hais tias, raws li tus nqi ballooning dent thov rau qee yam khoom, cov khw muag khoom sib cav nrog cov khoom muag ntau ntau thiab muaj peev xwm thim rov qab looms.

Lub lim tiam dhau los, 90-xyoo-laus tshuaj pleev ib ce loj heev Revlon tau foob rau Tshooj 11 kev tiv thaiv kev lag luam poob nyiaj txiag, ua rau nws yog thawj lub npe ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam uas yuav tsum tau ua hauv lub hlis.

Tam sim no cov lus nug yog: Lub khw muag khoom twg yuav yog tom ntej? Thiab sai npaum li cas?

Perry Mandarino, tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev hauv tuam txhab nyiaj thiab tus thawj coj ntawm kev tsim kho kev lag luam ntawm B. Riley Securities tau hais tias "Kev muag khoom yog nyob rau hauv flux." "Thiab nyob rau hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no, toj roob hauv pes yuav txawv ntau dua li niaj hnub no."

Kev lag luam tau pom qhov kev thim rov qab zoo heev hauv kev tsim kho tshiab hauv 2021 thiab thaum ntxov 2022 raws li cov tuam txhab - suav nrog cov uas tau nyob rau hauv cov npe hu ua kev lag luam poob nyiaj - tau txais kev pab cuam los ntawm kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag uas muab nyiaj ntsuab rau kev lag luam thiab kev txhawb nqa nyiaj rau cov neeg siv khoom. Kev ncua sijhawm ua raws li dej nyab ntawm kev ntxhov siab hauv xyoo 2020, ze rau qhov pib muaj kev sib kis, raws li ntau lub khw muag khoom suav nrog JC Penney, Brooks Brothers, J. Crew thiab Neiman Marcus. taub hau mus rau lub tsev hais plaub bankruptcy.

suav nrog Revlon cov ntaub ntawv, tsuas muaj plaub lub khw muag khoom lag luam poob rau xyoo no, raws li S&P Global Market Intelligence. Qhov ntawd yog tus lej qis tshaj uas lub tuam txhab tau taug qab tsawg kawg 12 xyoo.

Nws tsis paub meej tias thaum twg qhov kev nce siab tuaj yeem pib loj hlob, tab sis cov kws tshaj lij kho dua tshiab hais tias lawv tab tom npaj rau cov teeb meem ntau dua thoob plaws kev lag luam raws li lub caij so tseem ceeb tshaj plaws.

Kev soj ntsuam los ntawm Fitch Ratings qhia tau hais tias cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov tuam txhab muag khoom feem ntau muaj kev phom sij xws li cov chaw tsim khoom txaj Serta Simmons, tshuaj pleev ib ce kab Anastasia Beverly Hills, lub tuam txhab kev lag luam tu tawv nqaij Rodan & Fields, Billabong tus tswv Boardriders, txiv neej lub tsho saw Men's Wearhouse, ntxiv kev lag luam. lub tuam txhab Isagenix International thiab cov chaw tsim khoom ua si ncaws pob Outerstuff.

"Peb muaj peev xwm ua kom muaj cua daj cua dub zoo kawg nkaus," Sally Henry, tus xibfwb ntawm txoj cai lij choj ntawm Texas Tech Law School thiab yav dhau los tus khub ntawm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP. "Kuv yuav tsis xav tsis thoob thaum pom ib qho uptick hauv khw muag khoom lag luam poob."

Tseem, cov kws pab tswv yim uas tau ua haujlwm ntawm cov khw muag khoom lag luam poob nyiaj hauv xyoo tas los ntseeg, feem ntau, tias txhua qhov kev ntxhov siab hauv kev lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob hnyav li qhov kev sib tw loj heev hauv xyoo 2020. Xwb, kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem nthuav tawm ntau dua, lawv tau hais. .

"Dab tsi koj pom hauv 2020 yog qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm tau rub mus rau pem hauv ntej," hais tias Spencer Ware, tus thawj coj thiab tus thawj coj hauv khw muag khoom ntawm Riveron, lub tuam txhab tawm tswv yim. "Tom qab ntawd peb tau txais los ntawm 2020 txog niaj hnub no nrog kev txhawb nqa ntau heev. Yuav ua li cas tam sim no? Nws yog me ntsis ntawm lub hnab sib xyaw. "

Kev sib cais ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tus cwj pwm tuaj yeem ua rau ntau yam tsis tuaj yeem xav txog. Cov neeg Amelikas uas cov nyiaj tau los qis dua tau txais txiaj ntsig tshwj xeeb los ntawm kev nce nqi thaum cov neeg siv khoom muaj txiaj ntsig ua rau cov khoom kim heev.

Steve Zelin, tus khub thiab tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab thiab cov xwm txheej tshwj xeeb ntawm PJT Partners tau hais tias "Peb nyob rau lub sijhawm tam sim no peb kwv yees tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim tom ntej yog qhov nyuaj dua," "Muaj ntau qhov sib txawv."

Cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom muag tam sim no qhia tau hais tias qhov twg cov neeg siv khoom tau rub rov qab tshaj plaws. Kev muag khoom ua ntej thiab kev siv khoom noj khoom haus poob 0.3% hauv lub Tsib Hlis piv rau lub hli dhau los, Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam qhia lub lim tiam dhau los. Cov khw muag khoom rooj tog thiab khoom vaj khoom tsev, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab kev noj qab haus huv- thiab kev saib xyuas tus kheej txhua tus tau pom ib hlis dhau ib hlis.

Marshal Cohen, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam muag khoom muag ntawm NPD Group, tau hais tias "Cov neeg siv khoom tsis yog tsuas yog yuav khoom tsawg xwb, lawv yuav khoom tsawg dua, uas txhais tau tias poob ntawm lub sijhawm yuav khoom uas tseem ceeb rau kev loj hlob ntawm khw muag khoom," said Marshal Cohen, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam muag khoom ntawm NPD Group, lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb kev lag luam.

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis ntawm 2022, cov neeg siv khoom yuav 6% tsawg dua cov khoom ntawm cov khw muag khoom dua li lawv tau ua nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2021, NPD Group tau hais hauv kev tshawb fawb tawm thaum lub Tsib Hlis. Ntau tshaj 8 ntawm 10 Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tau hais tias lawv npaj yuav hloov pauv ntxiv los rub lawv cov kev siv nyiaj hauv peb mus rau rau lub hlis tom ntej, nws hais.

Qhov kev hem thawj ntawm kev nce qib yav tom ntej - tom qab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lub lim tiam dhau los tau tsa tus nqi paj laum peb-quarters ntawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv nws qhov kev txhoj puab heev tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1994 - tau hais kom cov khw muag khoom tab tom nrhiav coj mus rhaub cov nqi lag luam kom nrawm cov phiaj xwm.

Riveron's Ware tau hais tias kev lag luam tau sib tw kom tau txais kev nce qib yav tom ntej. Qee tus yuav rov qab cov nuj nqis los yog sim thawb tawm kom tiav. Piv txwv li, department khw chain Macy tus nyob rau lub Peb Hlis tau hais tias nws ua tiav cov nyiaj rov qab $ 850 lab hauv daim ntawv cog lus uas yuav los txog rau ob xyoos tom ntej.

Tsis ntev los no, txawm li cas los xij, Ware tau hais tias nws tau pom tias kev ua lag luam nyiaj rov qab rau 12 lub hlis dhau los tau pib qeeb, nrog rau ntau qhov kev txiav txim siab tau raug tshem tawm lossis rub tawm. Ware tau hais tias "Nws zoo li lub qhov rais tau kaw rau kev rov qab nyiaj txiag nyuaj dua," Ware tau hais.

Thaum kawg ntawm 2020, Revlon nqaim dim ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag los ntawm kev yaum cov tswv lag luam kom txuas ntxiv nws cov nuj nqis loj. Tab sis tsawg dua ob xyoos tom qab ntawd, lub tuam txhab tau poob rau cov nuj nqis hnyav thiab cov khoom lag luam teeb meem uas tiv thaiv nws los ntawm kev ua tiav tag nrho nws cov lus txib.

Raws li ib txwm muaj, cov khw muag khoom uas tab tom ntsib nrog cov nuj nqis hnyav tshaj plaws yuav yog qhov yooj yim tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam poob nyiaj txiag, David Berliner, tus thawj coj ntawm BDO kev txhim kho kev lag luam thiab kev coj ua.

Kev ntxhov siab ntau dua tuaj yeem pib tshwm sim tom qab lub caij yuav khoom tom tsev kawm ntawv yuav los tom ntej, nws hais ntxiv, tom qab cov tsev neeg rov qab los ntawm lub caij ntuj sov tos ntev thiab yuav raug yuam kom nruj txoj siv.

Kev tshawb fawb los ntawm UBS ua ntej lub hli no pom tsuas yog kwv yees li 39% ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tau hais tias lawv npaj yuav siv nyiaj ntau dua rau lub caij rov qab mus kawm ntawv xyoo no piv rau xyoo dhau los, qis dua los ntawm cov neeg uas hais tib yam hauv 2021. .

Berliner tau hais tias "Cov neeg siv khoom siv dag zog ntau dua nrog lawv lub hnab nyiaj," Berliner tau hais. “Muaj yuav muaj cov yeej thiab poob zoo li peb ib txwm pom. Kuv tsuas yog tsis paub meej tias nws yuav tshwm sim sai npaum li cas. "

Berliner tau hais tias nws tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov neeg siv cov nuj nqis, uas yog hover nyob ze txhua lub sij hawm highs.

Nws tau hais tias "Cov neeg siv khoom tau txaus siab siv daim npav rho nyiaj, qiv nyiaj thiab yuav tam sim no them cov kev pabcuam tom qab," nws hais. "Kuv ntshai ntau tus neeg siv khoom yuav raug rub tawm lawv daim npav rho nyiaj thiab tom qab ntawd lawv yuav raug yuam kom rov qab sai sai."

Yog tias cov neeg siv khoom siv tau qeeb hauv txoj kev ntawd, ntau cov khw muag khoom tuaj yeem raug thawb mus rau hauv kev lag luam poob sai dua, Berliner tau hais. Tab sis yog tias kev siv nyiaj nyob twj ywm ntawm qhov tsim nyog clip, thiab cov neeg siv khoom muaj peev xwm them taus lawv cov nuj nqis, cov tuam txhab yuav hloov "muab qhov mob me ntsis" nrog cov ntaub ntawv poob nyiaj tsawg dua, nws hais.

Txawm li cas los xij, Berliner tau hais tias qhov kev ntxhov siab yuav muaj ntau dua ntawm cov lag luam me me, tshwj xeeb yog niam thiab cov khw muag khoom noj, uas tsis muaj ntau yam kev pab cuam rau huab cua hnyav dua.

Cov khoom lag luam nce qib kuj tseem nyob ntawm cov kws pab tswv yim kev lag luam poob nyiaj vim tias lawv muaj peev xwm ua rau muaj teeb meem loj dua. Cov khw muag khoom los ntawm Kaw rau Abercrombie & Fitch rau Kohl tus tau hais nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no tias lawv muaj ntau yam khoom tom qab kev xa khoom tuaj txog lig thiab cov neeg siv khoom hloov pauv sai li sai tau qhov lawv yuav khoom.

Target tau hais ua ntej lub hli no nws tab tom npaj markdowns thiab tshem tawm qee qhov kev txiav txim kom sim tshem tawm cov khoom tsis xav tau. Raws li lwm cov khw muag khoom ua raws li kev nplua, cov txiaj ntsig yuav tau cog lus nyob rau lub sijhawm ze, hais tias Joseph Malfitano, tus tsim ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab rov tsim kho lub tuam txhab Malfitano Partners.

Thiab thaum lub khw muag khoom cov nyiaj tau los poob qis raws li nws cov khoom muag tau rov ntsuas dua - kev coj ua niaj hnub hauv kev lag luam - cov khoom muag yuav tsis muaj nqis npaum li, Malfitano piav qhia. Ib lub tuam txhab qiv nyiaj tuaj yeem poob vim qhov tshwm sim, nws hais.

"Qee lub khw muag khoom muaj peev xwm tshem tawm cov xaj kom tsis txhob tsim ntau npuas ntawm cov khoom muag. Tab sis ntau lub khw muag khoom tsis tuaj yeem tshem tawm cov xaj no, "Malfitano tau hais. "Yog li yog tias cov khw muag khoom uas tsis tuaj yeem thim qhov kev txiav txim tsis txhob khob nws tawm ntawm lub tiaj ua si thaum lub caij so, lawv cov paj yuav ploj mus."

"Koj yuav muaj teeb meem ntau dua hauv 2023," nws hais ntxiv.

Ian Fredericks, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Hilco Global pawg khw muag khoom, tau pom zoo tias cov khw muag khoom lag luam yuav tsis tuaj txog txog 2023.

Nws tau hais tias "Cov khw muag khoom tsis muaj kev ntxhov siab vim tias lawv tseem zaum ntawm lub nkoj thauj khoom ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ... ntawm qee cov nyiaj ntsuab uas tshuav nyob rau hauv lawv daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj ntxiv nrog rau ib lub revolver tsis tau," nws hais. "Tseem muaj ntau txoj kev khiav."

Qhov ntawd tsuas yog txhais tau hais tias lub caij so so yuav los tom ntej, uas txhua xyoo yog lub sijhawm tseem ceeb ntawm lub sijhawm nyob rau hauv lub khw muag khoom daim ntawv qhia hnub rau cov lag luam kom tawg txawm ntawm cov txiaj ntsig, tuaj yeem yog ntau lub sijhawm ua-lossis-so rau cov tuam txhab.

“Kuv tsis pom lub caij so nyiaj so koobtsheej loj. Kuv xav tias tib neeg yuav nruj nruj thiab buckle, "Fredericks hais. "Inflation tsis mus qhov twg."

Ib qho txiaj ntsig ntxiv ntawm kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem yog qhov nce siab hauv M & A kev ua haujlwm thoob plaws cov khw muag khoom, raws li B. Riley Securities 'Mandarino.

Cov khw muag khoom loj dua uas muaj nyiaj txiag ruaj khov tuaj yeem saib mus rub tawm cov npe me, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum lawv tuaj yeem ua tau ntawm luv nqi. Lawv yuav siv lub tswv yim no hauv lub sijhawm nyuaj txhawm rau khaws cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob hauv peb lub hlis twg tom qab peb lub hlis twg, txawm hais tias tsis muaj teeb meem, Mandarino tau hais.

Cov khoom siv hauv tsev, khaub ncaws thiab khw muag khoom tuaj yeem ntsib qhov kev nyuaj siab tshaj plaws hauv lub hlis tom ntej, nws hais ntxiv.

nrog Pw Hauv Paus & Tshaj Tshaj's namesake banner underperforming nyob rau hauv lub quarters tsis ntev los no, lub khw muag khoom tau ntsib kev nyuaj siab los ntawm ib tus neeg ua haujlwm txhawm rau txhawm rau tawm ntawm nws txoj hlua Buybuy Baby, uas yog saib raws li ib feem muaj zog ntawm kev lag luam. Kohl's, ib lub khw muag khoom hauv khw muag khoom, kuj tau los nyob rau hauv cov neeg tawm tsam kom xav txog kev muag khoom thiab tam sim no yog nyob rau hauv tshwj xeeb deal tham nrog Franchise Group, tus tswv ntawm Vitamin Shoppe. Pab pawg Franchise tab tom txiav txim siab seb puas yuav txo qis nws qhov kev sib tw rau Kohl's, ib qhov chaw hais rau CNBC hnub Wednesday.

Mandarino tau hais tias "Nws yog cov neeg yuav khoom lag luam," Mandarino hais. "Kev loj hlob yuav tsis tuaj yeem tshwm sim thaum cov neeg siv khoom siv nyiaj poob qis thiab yog tias peb mus rau hauv kev poob qis."