Vim li cas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tsis nrawm nrawm rau nws txoj kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi

Xav txog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell ua ib tug gymnast sprinting hla lub lev, spiraling, tig, churning, ces twisting los ntawm huab cua thiab sim ua kom paub tseeb tias nws tseem tsaws zoo kawg nkaus ntawm nws ob txhais taw.

Qhov ntawd yog txoj cai nyiaj txiag nyob rau lub sijhawm no ntawm kev nce nqi sai, kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thiab ua rau muaj kev ntshai ntau dua qhov yuav mus tsis ncaj ncees lawm. Powell yog tus gymnast, sawv ntawm kev lag luam version ntawm Olympic lev, thiab yuav tsum ua kom txhua yam mus zoo.

ntsig txog kev nqis peev xov xwm

Cov koom haum thoob ntiaj teb hu xov tooj rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab kom thov kom tsis txhob nce nqi

Vim hais tias yog tej yam mus tsis ncaj ncees lawm, lawv yuav mus tsis ncaj ncees lawm.

Joseph Brusuelas, US tus thawj coj ntawm tus kws lag luam nyiaj txiag ntawm RSM hais tias "Lawv yuav tsum tau nqis los ntawm kev nqis peev," "Nws yog qhov qis kawg ntawm tus ntaiv kev lag luam uas yuav tau ris lub nra yog tias Fed tsis tuav qhov kev tsaws kom raug. Lawv poob haujlwm thiab lawv cov kev siv nyiaj poob qis thiab lawv yuav tsum tau txais kev txuag nyiaj thiab 401 (k) kom ua tiav. "

Cov neeg siv khoom siab los ntawm tsis tu ncua nce nqi twb yog dipping rau hauv kev txuag nyiaj los them cov nqi.

Tus kheej txuag tus nqi tsuas yog 3.5% nyob rau lub Yim Hli, raws li cov Bureau of Economic Tshawb Xyuas. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog siab dua 3% tus nqi nyob rau lub Rau Hli uas yog qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv 14 xyoo, rov qab mus rau hnub pib ntawm kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag.

Tus nqi rau cov khoom txhua hnub tau nce siab ntawm qhov clip tshwj xeeb. Qe tau nce 40% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los thaum Lub Yim Hli, butter thiab margarine nce ze li 30% thiab roj av, txawm tias 10.6% poob rau lub hli, tseem tseem ntau dua 25% siab dua li qub taw tes hauv 2021.

Cov txiaj ntsig rau kev tsis coj qhov kev tswj hwm tuaj yeem hnyav, ib yam li lawv tuaj yeem yog yog tias Fed mus deb dhau ntawm nws qhov kev thov kom rov qab tau tus nqi ruaj ntseg rau Asmeskas kev lag luam.

Brusuelas tau hais tias qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws yuav zoo li 5.5% tus neeg poob haujlwm thiab 3.5 lab txoj haujlwm poob vim cov tuam txhab yuav tsum tau tso cov neeg ua haujlwm los cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam poob qis thiab cov nqi nce ntxiv uas yuav tuaj txog yuav tsum muaj kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv.

Raws li nws sawv, kev lag luam yog qhov zoo li yuav mus rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag txawm li cas los xij. Lo lus nug yog qhov phem npaum li cas nws tuaj yeem xaus.

Brusuelas tau hais tias "Nws tsis yog qhov teeb meem ntawm peb yuav mus rau hauv kev lag luam poob lossis tsis yog, nws yog thaum peb yuav muaj nws thiab qhov kev siv zog ntawm kev lag luam poob qis," Brusuelas tau hais. "Kuv lub siab yog peb nyob rau hauv kev poob qis los ntawm lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2023."

Fed tsis tuaj yeem cia li nce tus nqi raws li kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. Nws yuav tsum tau taug kev mus txog thaum nws mus txog qhov sib npaug uas nws ua rau kev lag luam qeeb txaus los kho cov khoom siv ntau yam / kev thov tsis sib haum tab sis tsis ntau uas nws ua rau mob tob, tsis tsim nyog. Raws li cov Fed qhov kev xav tsis ntev los no, cov neeg tsim txoj cai cia siab tias yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo 2023, nrog tus nqi ntsuas kwv yees li 1.5 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus tam sim no.

Brusuelas tau hais tias "Yog tias Fed overdo nws, koj yuav muaj kev poob qis dua nrog kev poob haujlwm ntau dua," Brusuelas tau hais.

Tias Fed mus dhau deb thiab stifles kev lag luam ntau dhau yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ntshai ntawm lub hauv paus bank cov neeg thuam.

Lawv hais tias muaj cov cim qhia tau tias tus 3 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus ntawm tus nqi hikes Txog tam sim no hauv 2022 tau ua tiav lawv lub hom phiaj, thiab tam sim no Fed tuaj yeem ncua sijhawm kom cia nyiaj txiag poob qis thiab kev lag luam rov qab, txawm tias maj mam.

James Paulsen, tus kws tshaj lij kev nqis peev ntawm Leuthold Group tau hais tias "Fed tuaj yeem tawm hnub no thiab kev nce nqi yuav rov qab mus rau qib kev lees paub tom ntej," "Kuv yeej xav tias tsov rog ntawm kev nce nqi tau yeej. Peb tsuas yog tsis paub nws. "

Paulsen saib cov khoom xws li cov nqi poob rau cov khoom muag, tsheb siv thiab cov khoom tuaj txawv teb chaws. Nws kuj tau hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis tau poob qis, thaum cov khoom muag muag tau nce.

Ntawm kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm, nws hais tias qhov sib npaug ntawm nyiaj hli loj hlob xyoo no tau los ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm kev lag luam uas Fed xav kom txhawb nqa, tsis yog qhov kev thov sab uas ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag.

Paulsen tau hais tias "Yog tias lawv xav tau, lawv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam uas tsis xav tau," Paulsen hais. "Kuv tsuas yog tsis paub vim li cas lawv xav ua qhov ntawd."

Paulsen tsis yog ib leeg hauv nws qhov kev thuam. Muaj kev tshaj tawm xov tooj ncig Wall Street rau lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab kom hu rau nws txoj cai nruj thiab saib seb kev lag luam nce qib li cas los ntawm no.

Wells Fargo tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees Christopher Harvey tau hais tias Fed cov lus tshaj tawm, tshwj xeeb los ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell, tias nws txaus siab rau ua rau "qee qhov mob" ntawm kev lag luam tau raug txhais raws li lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab txaus siab mus txuas ntxiv "kom txog thaum muaj qee yam tawg."

"Dab tsi yog qhov teeb meem yog qhov pom tseeb txo qis ntawm cov peev txheej lag luam qhia raws li Fed trudges mus rau nws lub hom phiaj kev nce nqi 2%," Harvey tau hais hauv daim ntawv teev cov neeg siv khoom. "Yog li ntawd, cov teeb liab yuav tsum tau ua kom nrov dua (piv txwv li txawm tias qhov sib npaug qis dua thiab nthuav dav dua) ua ntej Fed reacts. Qhov no kuj txhais tau tias kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav ntev dua / hnyav dua li qhov tseem ceeb tam sim no thiab kev pheej hmoo ua lag luam qhia. "

Tsis muaj ib txoj cai tsawg dua li United Nations tau tshaj tawm lub koom haum tshaj tawm hnub Monday nyob rau hauv uas UN Conference on Trade thiab Development ceeb toom ntawm ramifications uas tus nqi hikes tuaj yeem muaj thoob ntiaj teb.

"Kev nqis tes ua tam sim no tau ua rau cov neeg tsis muaj zog nyob txhua qhov chaw, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws tsim. Peb yuav tsum hloov cov chav kawm, "UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan tau hais rau lub rooj sib tham xov xwm hauv Geneva, raws li Reuters tus account.

Txawm li cas los xij cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias Fed tseem muaj haujlwm ua.

Daim ntawv qhia txog tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom yuav los tom ntej yuav tsum qhia tias tus nqi ntawm kev nyob txuas ntxiv nce rau lub Cuaj Hli. Cov Cleveland Fed's Nowcast tracker ntawm cov khoom nyob rau hauv dav-raws li pob tawb ntawm cov khoom thiab cov kev pab cuam lub Bureau of Labor Statistics siv los xam lub CPI yog qhia ntxiv 0.5% nce tsis suav cov zaub mov thiab lub zog, zoo rau ib tug 6.6% xyoo nyob rau hauv lub xyoo pace. Nrog rau cov khoom noj thiab lub zog, cov xov xwm CPI tau npaj siab kom nce 0.3% thiab 8.2% raws li.

Thaum cov neeg thuam hais tias cov hom ntaub ntawv cov ntsiab lus yog rov qab saib, Fed ntsib qhov teeb meem optics ntxiv tom qab nws txo qis nyiaj txiag thaum nws thawj zaug pib nce siab ntau dua ib xyoos dhau los, thiab lig los ua.

Qhov ntawd ua rau lub nra rov qab rau cov neeg tsim cai kom ceev nrooj kom tsis txhob muaj qhov xwm txheej zoo li xyoo 1970 thiab thaum ntxov 80s, thaum tus thawj tswj hwm Paul Volcker yuav tsum rub kev lag luam mus rau qhov kev lag luam nyuaj kom tsis txhob muaj nyiaj txiag ib zaug thiab rau tag nrho.

Steve Blitz, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm TS Lombard tau hais tias "Qhov no tsis yog xyoo 70s los ntawm kev nthuav dav ntawm kev xav, rau ntau qhov laj thawj," "Tab sis kuv yuav sib cav tias lawv tseem muaj kev cia siab dhau los uas tus nqi nce nqi yuav qis dua ntawm nws tus kheej."

Rau lawv txoj haujlwm, Fed cov neeg ua haujlwm tau daig rau lub tuam txhab kab uas lawv txaus siab ua txhua yam nws yuav siv los tiv thaiv tus nqi nce.

San Francisco Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Mary Daly tau hais lus zoo txog tib neeg qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev nce nyiaj txiag, qhia rau cov neeg tuaj saib hnub Tuesday tias nws tau hnov ​​​​txog nws los ntawm nws cov neeg sawv cev.

"Tam sim no, qhov mob uas kuv hnov, kev txom nyem uas tib neeg qhia kuv tias lawv tab tom dhau los, yog nyob rau sab nyiaj txiag," nws hais. thaum tham ntawm Council on Foreign Relations. "Lawv txhawj xeeb txog lawv txoj sia nyob niaj hnub."

Tshwj xeeb hais txog qhov teeb meem nyiaj ua haujlwm, Daly tau hais tias nws muaj ib tus neeg hais rau nws, "Kuv tabtom khiav nrawm thiab poob qab txhua hnub. Kuv tabtom ua haujlwm hnyav li kuv tuaj yeem ua tau thiab kuv poob qis dua. "