Kev ua lag luam rally.
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Muaj tag nrho cov lus pom zoo ntawm ib yam txog 2022: Nws yog xyoo malodorous rau kev lag luam Tshuag. Yuav ua li cas rau xyoo tom ntej? Tam sim no, qhov kev xav pom ntau tshaj plaws yog tias nws yuav tsis muaj kev kho mob, nrog rau kev ua tsov rog txuas ntxiv hauv Ukraine, qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm lwm qhov Covid-19 tshwm sim vim tus kab mob kis mus rau Tuam Tshoj thiab, tau kawg, kev lag luam poob qis.
Txog rau hnub Friday kaw, S&P 500 tau poob yuav luag 20% rau 2022, qhov poob qis tshaj plaws txij li thaum muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag. Tam sim no, rov qab-rau-rov qab xyoo kev lag luam poob tshwm sim, tab sis qhov ntawd yog qhov tsis tshua muaj. Kev ua lag luam tau muaj ob xyoos sib law liag tsuas yog plaub zaug txij li xyoo 1928. Thaum qhov ntawd tshwm sim, xyoo thib ob (gulp) nyiam muaj qhov poob loj dua.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, raws li Sam Stovall, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm CFRA, ceeb toom peb, qhov pib ntawm lub xyoo tshiab feem ntau augurs yuav ua li cas 12 lub hlis tom ntej. Yog tias "Santa Claus rally" tau tshwm sim, tom qab ntawd kev ua lag luam ua tiav xyoo nrog kev ua tau zoo 77% ntawm lub sijhawm txij li Tsov Rog Ntiaj Teb Zaum II, Stovall sau hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb. Qhov kev sib tw 'nce yog qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo 9.8%. Qhov kev xav pom meej yog tias cov tub ua lag luam uas thawb lub lag luam rau hauv cov xim dub thaum lub sijhawm pib ntawm lub xyoo ntawd muaj kev cia siab tias yuav nqa cov khoom lag luam thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo.
Tam sim no, kev sib tw Santa Claus tab tom ua tiav ... NW nyuam qhuav. Lub sij hawm ntsuas yog tsib hnub ua lag luam kawg ntawm lub xyoo laus thiab thawj ob ntawm cov tshiab. Thawj tsib hnub yog tom qab peb, thiab qhov ntsuas ntsuas tau nce mus rau 3,839 los ntawm 3,822 pib taw tes. Qhov ntawd yog measly 0.44% nce mus. Thiab qhov kev ua ntej yog choppy, nrog peb ntawm lawv down hnub. Yog li ntawd tawm ob hnub tom ntej no lub lim tiam los ua qhov kev tawm tsam qhov tseeb lossis kev tsoo.
Rau qhov nws tsim nyog (hauv cov ntsiab lus nyiaj daus las, tsis muaj dab tsi tsis tseem ceeb), thaum lub sijhawm ntawd 23% ntawm lub sijhawm thaum Santa tsis tuaj, qhov txiaj ntsig tau poob 4.7%. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm Santa Claus rally tau tshwm sim los ntawm Yale Hirsch hauv nws Tus Tub Lag Luam Tshuag Almanac. Xyoo 1972, Hirsch muab lub tswv yim rau cov lus hais: "Yog tias Santa Claus yuav tsum tsis hu, dais yuav tuaj rau Broad & Phab ntsa."
Zoo, yog tias Santa tau daig hauv lub chimney lub sijhawm no, lwm yam kev muaj feem cuam tshuam rau xyoo 2023 uas yuav ua rau lub khw muaj lub siab. Ib qho zoo thawj tsib hnub ntawm Lub Ib Hlis ua rau lub xyoo zoo (67% ntawm lub sijhawm nyob rau tom qab tsov rog) thiab lub Ib Hlis zoo tag nrho kuj yog salubrious (60%). Ob leeg yog kev cia siab portents. Ntau daim ntawv qhia hnub: Stovall taw qhia tias thawj peb lub hlis twg yog liab 82% ntawm lub sijhawm. Tab sis, nws hais ntxiv, yog tias qhov tsis zoo thawj peb lub hlis twg tsis zoo li lub xyoo ua ntej lub Ib Hlis-Lub Peb Hlis, ces ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tag nrho tau zoo, nrog qhov nruab nrab 18.5% qhia.
Muaj tseeb tiag, tsis muaj daim ntawv qhia hnub quirk yuav txiav txim rau txoj kev lag luam, tsis hais cov txheeb cais hais li cas. Cov dreaded tshwm sim, paub raws li exogenous txheej xwm (lub Ukraine tsov rog yog ib tug), muaj ib txoj kev ntawm tumbling nyob rau hauv lub ntuj thiab cuam tshuam txhua yam. Raws li Stovall tau hais tias, "Tus nqi feem ntau ua rau cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb, yog li thaum cov ntsuas no feem ntau muab cov lus qhia txog kev ua lag luam, saib rau lawv raws li cov lus qhia txog qhov yuav tshwm sim, tab sis tsis tas yuav lav tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2022/12/30/why-the-calendar-might-signal-a-good-2023-for-stocks/