Vim li cas cov tub lag luam lag luam yuav tsum tsis suav nrog 'Santa Claus' rally xyoo no

José Torres, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus ntawm Interactive Brokers tau hais tias "Kev sib tw Santa Claus tau raug tshem tawm xyoo no vim tias kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua thiab kev cog lus nyiaj tau los," "Lub caij tailwinds uas ib txwm tsav Santa Claus rallies daj ntseg nyob rau hauv kev sib piv rau lub plethora ntawm headwinds lub lag luam ncaj ncees tam sim no ntsib."

US stock indexes poob rau lub lim tiam no, nrog S&P 500
SPX,
-0.73%
thiab Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.90%
ob qho tib si booking lawv qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txhua lub lim tiam hauv ze li peb lub hlis, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Qhov poob tau tshwm sim raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam muaj zog tshaj li qhov xav tau ntxiv rau kev txhawj xeeb tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav xav tau kev nruj dua hauv nws qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua nyiaj txiag ntau dua li qhov xav tau ua ntej, txawm tias nrog tswb flashing hais txog lub peev xwm kev lag luam poob qis. 

Saib: Nov yog dab tsi keeb kwm hais txog kev ua lag luam ua lag luam hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis

Santa Claus nyiam tuaj rau Wall Street yuav luag txhua txhua xyoo, nqa qhov kev sib tw luv luv hauv tsib hnub ua lag luam kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis, thiab thawj ob hnub ntawm Lub Ib Hlis. Txij li thaum xyoo 1969, Santa Rally tau txhawb nqa S&P 500 los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 1.3%, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Tshuag Trader's Almanac. 

“Lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog lub hli muaj zog tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau xyoo kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab. Yog li, Lub Kaum Ob Hlis tau ua qhov zoo feem ntau ntawm lub sijhawm, "said David Keller, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm StockCharts.com. "Nws yuav yog qhov txawv heev rau cov khoom lag luam muag tawm hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis."

Puas yuav Wall Street tau txais Santa Claus Rally? 

Lub xyoo lwj rau cov cuab tam nyiaj txiag tau pib kos mus rau qhov ze nyob rau hauv huab ntawm qhov tsis paub tseeb. Raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj kev nyuaj siab ntawm kev coj nyiaj txiag mus rau nws 2% lub hom phiaj thiab twb muaj kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tsis zoo, ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob tsom ntau dhau ntawm seb Santa Claus xaus rau qhov tsis zoo lossis zoo.

"Lub lim tiam tom ntej yuav yog lub lim tiam loj rau kev lag luam thaum lawv sim nrhiav qee qhov taw qhia mus rau xyoo kawg," Cliff Hodge, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Cornerstone Wealth, hauv email tau hais rau hnub Friday.

Qhov ntawd ua rau Fed tus nqi txiav txim siab rau lub lim tiam tom ntej thiab cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tshiab tseem ceeb dua rau kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees. Hnub Friday cov nqi muag khoom tau nce ntau tshaj qhov xav tau hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, dampening vam tias kev nce nqi yuav txias. Tus nqi tsim khoom tseem ceeb, uas tsis suav nrog cov khoom noj tsis hloov pauv, lub zog thiab cov nqi lag luam, kuj tau nce 0.3% hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, nce los ntawm 0.2% nce hauv lub hli dhau los, Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau hais. 

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas, txog thaum 8:30 teev sawv ntxov Eastern rau hnub Tuesday, yuav qhia ntxiv yog tias kev nce nqi nce ntxiv. CPI tau nce 0.4% thaum Lub Kaum Hli thiab 7.7% ntawm ib xyoo dhau los. Kev nyeem ntawv tseem ceeb tau nce 0.3% rau lub hli thiab 6.3% nyob rau ib xyoos.

"Yog tias CPI luam tawm los ntawm 5% ntawm qhov tseem ceeb, tom qab ntawd koj yuav tau txais qhov muag tawm tiag tiag hauv daim ntawv cog lus thiab hauv cov khoom lag luam. Yog tias kev nce nqi tseem kub dua thiab koj muaj kev poob qis, Fed puas tuaj yeem txiav cov nqi? Tej zaum tsis yog. Tom qab ntawd koj pib nkag mus rau hauv cov xwm txheej stagflation, "said Ron Tuam Tsev, tus thawj coj ntawm US cov peev txheej ntawm Lazard Asset Management.

saib: Cov tub lag luam yuav tsis pom kev pab kom txog thaum 2024 hauv daim ntawv ntawm Fed tus nqi txiav, ceeb toom Credit Suisse

Cov tub lag luam tab tom ua tus nqi hauv 77% qhov tshwm sim uas Fed yuav nce nws txoj cai paj laum los ntawm 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus mus rau thaj tsam ntawm 4.25% mus rau 4.50% tom ntej Wednesday, hnub kawg ntawm nws lub Kaum Ob Hlis 13-14 lub rooj sib tham, raws li kev lag luam. CME FedWatch cuab yeej. Qhov ntawd yuav yog qhov qeeb qeeb dua li plaub qhov sib law liag 0.75 taw tes tus nqi nce txij thaum Lub Rau Hli.

Saib: 5 yam uas yuav tsum tau saib thaum Fed txiav txim siab tus nqi paj

John Porter, tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev thiab tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees ntawm Newton Investment Management, cia siab tias yuav tsis muaj qhov xav tsis thoob lub lim tiam tom ntej hais txog ntau npaum li cas Fed yuav nce cov paj laum. Txawm li cas los xij, nws cia siab tias cov tub lag luam lag luam yuav ua tib zoo saib Fed Chair Powell lub rooj sib tham hauv xov xwm rau kev nkag siab txog qhov kev txiav txim siab thiab "tso rau txhua lo lus." 

Porter hais rau MarketWatch hauv xov tooj tias "Cov tub lag luam tab tom hloov lawv tus kheej mus rau hauv pretzel thiab sim txhais lus ntau dhau," “Nej mloog tej uas lawv hais, tsis txhob mloog tej uas nej xav kom lawv hais. Lawv [Fed cov neeg ua haujlwm] yuav tsum tau ceev faj ntxiv, thiab lawv yuav tsum saib kev nce nqi. " 

Puas yog 'Santa' rally tiag tiag?

Tau ntau xyoo, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam tau tshuaj xyuas cov laj thawj muaj peev xwm rau cov qauv Santa Claus raws caij nyoog. Tab sis nrog rau lub xyoo no tseem sash nyob rau hauv liab, ib txhia xav tias ib tug rally nyob rau hauv lig Lub Kaum Ob Hlis tuaj yeem dhau los ua nws tus kheej ua raws li cov lus faj lem, tsuas yog vim tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tshawb nrhiav ib qho laj thawj kom zoo siab me ntsis. 

"Yog tias txhua tus tau tsom mus rau lub caij nyoog zoo, nws tuaj yeem dhau los ua ntau yam ntawm cov lus piav qhia no uas ua rau muaj ntau yam tsis yog txhua yam tseem ceeb," David Lefkowitz, tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees Asmeskas ntawm UBS Global Wealth Management, hais rau MarketWatch hauv xov tooj. 

Liz Young, tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev zoo ntawm SoFi hais tias "Kev lag luam nyiam nyiam lub caij siv nyiaj ntau heev, yog li muaj lub npe rau kev sib tw uas zoo li tshwm sim thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo," "Rau qhov nws tsim nyog, Kuv xav tias 'Santa Claus Rally' tuav lub zog kwv yees ntau npaum li 'Muag lub Tsib Hlis thiab Taug Kev Tawm,' uas yog qhov tsawg kawg nkaus thiab qhov zoo tshaj plaws."

Kev pab cuam rally qhov kev sim loj

Thaum peb lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau poob qis txhua lub lim tiam, cov khoom lag luam tau sib sau ua ke tawm ntawm lub Kaum Hlis qis. S&P 500 tau nce 9.9% los ntawm nws lub Kaum Hlis qis txog rau hnub Friday, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.90%
nce 16.5% thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.70%
nce 6.6%, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.

Txawm li cas los xij, ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Wall Street sab saum toj kuj pom cov laj thawj rau lub tswb, tshwj xeeb yog qhov ntawd lub khw lag luam bounce tawm cov lows tsis ntev los no yog yuav khiav tawm ntawm chav.

Yog li, cov tub ua lag luam puas tsis quav ntsej cov lus ceeb toom? Txawm hais tias tham txog qhov zoo li tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib tw xyoo tas los, ntau qhov kev sib tw tsis ntev los no tau ua tsis tiav, thaum Wall Street's CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
+ 2.42%,
los yog "kev ntshai ntsuas," yog ntawm 22.86 ntawm hnub Friday kaw. Ib qho kev poob qis dua 20 ntawm VIX tuaj yeem qhia tau tias cov tub lag luam ntshai txog kev lag luam kev lag luam tau yooj yim.

US Tshuag indexes kaw rau hnub Friday nrog S&P 500 poob 0.7%. Dow poob 0.9%, thiab Nasdaq poob 0.7%. Peb qhov kev lag luam loj tau booked ib lub lim tiam ntawm kev poob loj heev nrog S&P 500 tshaj tawm ib lub lim tiam poob ntawm 3.4%. Dow poob qis los ntawm 2.8% thiab Nasdaq Composite poob ze li 4% lub lim tiam no, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.

Lub lim tiam tom ntej, tsis ntev tom qab CPI thiab Fed kev txiav txim siab, cov tub ua lag luam tseem yuav tau txais lub Kaum Ib Hlis cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom muag thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam rau hnub Thursday, ua raws li S&P Global's flash PMI nyeem rau hnub Friday.

-—Joseph Adinolfi tau pab qhia rau kab lus no.

Saib: BNP Paribas tau kawm txog 100 xyoo ntawm kev lag luam sib tsoo - ntawm no yog qhov nws hais tias yuav los tom ntej