Thaum ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov nyiaj ua lag luam pib shrugging tawm tshiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tus paj laum hikes los yog nyuaj tham txog kev nce nqi, tej zaum nws yog lub sij hawm mus yuav cov stocks, raws li James Paulsen, lub Leuthold Group tus thawj coj tswv yim peev.
Txhawm rau qhia nws txoj kev hu xov tooj, Paulsen tau saib ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm 10-xyoo Treasury yield
TUBMUSD 10Y,
thiab S&P 500 qhov ntsuas
SPX,
nyob rau hauv ob peb yav dhau los Fed zawm voj voog. Nws pom tsib lub sijhawm, txij li nruab nrab xyoo 1980s, thaum qhov ntsuas 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tau nce siab, qhia tias cov neeg ua lag luam "blinked," ua ntej Fed tau tso tseg nws txoj cai paj laum.
Xyoo 1984, ib zaug 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tau tshaj tawm ze li ntawm 14% hauv Lub Rau Hli (saib daim ntawv qhia), nws tsuas yog siv ob peb lub lis piam ntxiv rau S&P 500 index mus rau hauv qab. S&P 500 tom qab ntawd tau nce siab thaum Lub Yim Hli, txawm tias ua ntej lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau xaus nws lub voj voog nruj nrog cov Fed-nyiaj tus nqi ze li 11.5%.
Cov tub ua lag luam Bond blinked hauv 1984 lub hlis ua ntej Fed tau tso tseg cov nqi nce thiab cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab dua.
Pawg Leuthold
Ib qho qauv zoo sib xws tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub voj voog nruj ntawm 1988-1990, 1994-1995 thiab nws 2018-2019, nrog rau qhov siab tshaj 10-xyoo tawm los qhia tias Fed qhov kawg ntawm kev nce qib.
Paulsen tau sau tias "Txhua tus xav paub thaum twg Fed yuav tsum tsis txhob nce cov nyiaj tau los," Paulsen tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Tuesday. "Txawm li cas los xij, raws li cov piv txwv keeb kwm no qhia tau hais tias, tej zaum cov lus nug tsim nyog rau cov tub ua lag luam yog: Thaum twg 10-xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag yuav ntsais?"
Qhov ntsuas 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag vim nws qhia tus nqi rau txhua yam los ntawm kev qiv nyiaj rau cov tuam txhab nuj nqis. Cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua tuaj yeem cuam tshuam cov nres ntawm kev lag luam, txawm tias ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis.
Txawm hais tias 10-xyoo kev nce siab hauv 2022 (saib hauv qab), nws tau nce siab hauv txhua 11 lub lis piam dhau los, tsoo 4% ua ntej lub lim tiam no, lossis nws qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2008, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.
10-xyoo Treasury tus nqi tseem tsis tau blinked
Pawg Leuthold
Paulsen tau ceeb toom tias "Fed tej zaum yuav sim nce cov nyiaj mus rau 4%, 4.5%, lossis txawm tias 5%,". "Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau cov tub ua lag luam, cov khw lag luam feem ntau qis qis tsis yog thaum Fed nres nce nqi tab sis thaum lub lag luam nyiaj poob qis."
Cov khoom lag luam kaw siab dua hnub Tuesday Tom qab ib pawg ntawm cov tuam txhab nyiaj tau los muaj zog, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
nce ntau dua 300 cov ntsiab lus, S&P 500 nce 1.1% thiab Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
xaus 0.9% siab dua, raws li FactSet.
nyeem: Snapchat tab tom yuav ua si canary hauv social media's thee mine
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-should-wait-for-the-10-year-treasury-to-blink-11666124534?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo