Lub S&P 500 Performance index rau hnub Friday ua tiav saum toj ib theem qhia uas tau xa ib koob ntawm kev txhawb nqa rau cov khw muag khoom bulls sib cav tias US dais-kev lag luam hauv qab yog nyob rau hauv, txawm hais tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau ceeb toom tias nws yuav tsis yog lub teeb liab mus rau tag nrho ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev. .
Lub S&P 500
SPX,
Hnub Friday tau nce 1.7% rau kaw ntawm 4,280.15. Qhov ua tiav saum toj no 4,231 yuav txhais tau tias qhov loj-cap ntsuas tau zoo rov qab - lossis rov qab - ntau dua 50% ntawm nws lub caij nplooj zeeg los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis 3 cov ntaub ntawv tiav ntawm 4796.56.
"Txij li xyoo 1950 tsis tau muaj kev lag luam dais uas tau tshaj li 50% retracement thiab tom qab ntawd mus ua kom lub voj voog qis qis," Jonathan Krinsky, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm BTIG, hauv tsab ntawv sau ua ntej lub hli no.
stocks sawv hla lub rooj tsavxwm hnub Friday, nrog rau S&P 500 booking plaub ncaj nraim txhua lub lim tiam. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
nce ntau dua 420 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 1.3%, hnub Friday thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
nce 2.1%. S&P 500 tau sim ua kom tiav qhov retracement nyob rau hnub Thursday lub rooj sib tham, thaum nws pauv siab txog 4,257.91, tab sis muab cov txiaj ntsig nce mus txog 4,207.27.
Krinsky, nyob rau hauv ib qho kev hloov tshiab rau hnub Thursday, tau sau tseg tias kev ua txhaum cai ntawm theem tsis tau txiav nws, tab sis tau ceeb toom tias qhov ze tshaj 4,231 tseem yuav ua rau nws ceev faj txog qhov ze ze.
"Vim tias qhov retracement yog raws li lub hauv paus kaw, peb xav pom qhov ze tshaj 4,231 kom ua rau lub teeb liab ntawd. Txawm li cas los xij, txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev pheej hmoo / khoom plig zoo li tsis zoo rau peb ntawm no, "nws sau.
Dab tsi yog qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm 50% retracement? Ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau mloog zoo rau qhov uas hu ua Fibonacci piv, ntaus nqi rau xyoo pua 13th Italian kws lej hu ua Leonardo "Fibonacci" ntawm Pisa. Nws yog raws li ib ntus ntawm tag nrho cov lej uas cov lej ntawm ob tus lej sib npaug sib npaug ntawm tus lej siab tshaj tom ntej (0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21…).
Yog hais tias ib tug lej nyob rau hauv ib ntus muab faib los ntawm tus lej tom ntej, piv txwv li 8 muab faib los ntawm 13, qhov tshwm sim yog nyob ze 0.618, qhov piv uas tau hu ua Golden Mean vim nws qhov tshwm sim nyob rau hauv txhua yam ntawm seashells mus rau dej hiav txwv nthwv dej rau proportions. tib neeg lub cev. Rov qab rau ntawm Phab ntsa Street, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau pom qhov tseem ceeb retracement lub hom phiaj rau kev sib tw los ntawm qhov qis qis mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 38.2%, 50% thiab 61.8%, thaum retracement ntawm 23.6% thiab 76.4% yog cov hom phiaj thib ob.
Kev thawb siab tshaj 50% retracement theem thaum hnub Thursday kev lag luam poob qis yuav ua rau muaj kev muag khoom nws tus kheej, hais tias Jeff deGraaf, tus tsim ntawm Renaissance Macro Research, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom hnub Friday.
Nws tau pom tias qhov retracement sib raug rau 65-hnub siab rau S&P 500, muab lwm qhov qhia txog kev txhim kho hauv kev lag luam dais vim nws sawv cev rau qib siab tshaj plaws ntawm lub quarter dhau los. Lub 65-hnub siab feem ntau pom tau tias yog lub teeb liab ua ntej rau cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam, tsis yog hauv S&P 500 nkaus xwb tab sis hauv cov khoom muag, daim ntawv cog lus thiab kev lag luam forex thiab.
Nws tau sau tias "Qhov theem ntawd sib thooj nrog 50% retracement theem ntawm lub lag luam dais," nws sau. "Hauv qhov tseem ceeb, nws yuam kom txhais tes ntawm ib pab pawg los npog luv luv (CTAs) thaum tib lub sijhawm muab lwm pab pawg (Fibonacci followers) kev zam txim rau muag" rau hnub Thursday.
Krinsky, lub sijhawm no, tau ceeb toom tias yav dhau los 50% retracement nyob rau hauv 1974, 2004, thiab 2009 tag nrho cov pom zoo shakeouts sai tom qab tshem tawm qhov pib.
"Ntxiv mus, raws li kev ua lag luam tau zoo siab 'kev nce nqi siab tshaj', tam sim no peb tab tom pom muaj kev rov qab nyob ntsiag to hauv ntau cov khoom muag, thiab daim ntawv cog lus txuas ntxiv tsis muaj zog," nws sau rau hnub Thursday.
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-are-obsessed-with-the-4-231-level-for-the-s-p-500-11660309355?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo