Vim li cas hnub Monday kev muag khoom hauv khw lag luam tuaj yeem yog qhov pib ntawm ceg tom ntej qis dua

"Cov neeg ua lag luam tau txais kev txaus siab dhau lawm, vim tias SPX tab tom tig los ntawm nws txoj kev poob qis hauv ib xyoos ib yam li nws tau ua nyob rau lub Peb Hlis thiab Lub Yim Hli," Krinsky tau hais hauv cov lus xa email rau MarketWatch.

Lwm cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau pom zoo nrog cov lus ceeb toom ntawd, tab sis qhia meej tias qhov kev nkag siab ntawm kev txaus siab yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev ua lag luam muaj zog txhawb kev sib koom ua ke nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los.

Katie Stockton, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm Fairlead Strategies, tau hais tias qhov kev thim rov qab tshiab tshaj plaws rau cov khoom lag luam yog "ib qho cim qhia tias kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, thiab tsim nyog yog li muab lub sijhawm ntev thiab qhov loj ntawm qhov kev tawm tsam."

Ua ntej hnub Monday lub rooj sib tham, S&P 500 tau nce ntau dua 16% ntawm cov hnub qis qis mus txog rau Lub Kaum Hli 13, hnub cov khoom lag luam tau ua ib qho kev hloov pauv keeb kwm tom qab tso tawm. Cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag kub tshaj li qhov xav tau los ntawm lub Cuaj Hli.

Tom qab tshaj tawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis txoj haujlwm tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday, cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua rau hnub Monday, nrog rau S&P 500 thiab Nasdaq Composite Index.
COMP,
-11.01%
sau lawv qhov kev thim rov qab loj tshaj plaws txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 9, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.26%
thiab Russell 2000
ROV,
-2.78%
kuj muag tawm sai heev.

Saib: Nov yog dab tsi keeb kwm hais txog kev ua lag luam ua lag luam hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis

VIX qhia txog qhov tsis tseeb ntawm kev ruaj ntseg

Cov tub luam qhov kev nkag siab ntawm kev ruaj ntseg yog cuam tshuam hauv CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
+ 8.87%,
Lwm lub npe hu ua "VIX" lossis Wall Street's "kev ntshai ntsuas," raws li Nicholas Colas, tus tsim ntawm DataTrek Research.

Feem ntau qhov ntsuas ntsuas, VIX mus txog qib 20 yuav tsum yog lub cim ceeb toom rau cov tub ua lag luam tias cov khoom lag luam muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev muag khoom, Colas hais rau MarketWatch hauv email.

"Kev ua lag luam tsuas yog tsis txaus siab txog txoj cai tsis meej thiab dab tsi 2023 tuav rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj tau los. Thaum peb tau txais mus rau 20 VIX, nws tsis siv ntau rau kev lag luam dov, "Colas tau hais hauv email.

Tab sis raws li Colas tau piav qhia, cov qauv keeb kwm tau pab cuam tshuam rau qib qis ntawm VIX nyob rau ob peb lub lis piam dhau los.

Hauv txoj kev xav, cov qauv raws caij nyoog hais tias qhov kev sib tw hauv cov khoom lag luam yuav tsum txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo kawg, raws li MarketWatch tau tshaj tawm lub lim tiam dhau los. Feem ntau, cov khoom lag luam sib sau ua ke thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis vim tias cov khoom lag luam poob qis thiab cov tub lag luam tsis txhob qhib txoj haujlwm tshiab, tso cai rau qee qhov ntawm Wall Street tau hu ua "Santa Claus rally."

Seb tus qauv ntawd tuav lub xyoo no yog qhov tsaus muag.

Raws li Colas tau piav qhia hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Monday, qhov kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb rau cov khoom lag luam tam sim no yog tias cov tub ua lag luam tau tsis quav ntsej txog kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev hloov kho qis dua rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj tau txais kev cia siab, nrog rau lwm yam muaj peev xwm rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam poob qis. ntau tus kws xam nyiaj txiag pom tias yuav muaj.

Kom paub meej, cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tau tshaj tawm nyob rau hnub tsis ntev los no taw qhia txog kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas hauv lub quarter thib plaub. Cov ntaub ntawv haujlwm tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday tau qhia tias Asmeskas kev lag luam txuas ntxiv ntxiv cov haujlwm ntawm cov khoom siv hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, txawm hais tias muaj kev tshaj tawm txog kev tawm haujlwm ntau los ntawm cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis thiab tsev txhab nyiaj.

ISM's barometer ntawm cov kev pabcuam kev ua haujlwm tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Monday rattled kev lag luam los ntawm kev muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau. Tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv no tau ua rau muaj kev ntshai tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav xav tau kom xa cov paj laum ntau dua yog tias nws vam tias yuav ua tiav hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua tiv thaiv kev nce nqi.

Kev nce qib siab ntxiv tuaj yeem, hauv txoj kev xav, ua rau muaj "kev tsaws nyuaj" rau kev lag luam.

Puas tau poob Nyiaj Txiag yields ntaus ib qho kev poob qis rov qab?

Raws li BTIG's Krinsky tau piav qhia, kev nkag siab ntawm kev txaus siab tsis yog qhov tshwj xeeb rau kev lag luam ncaj ncees. Bond yields kuj tau poob ntau dua li BTIG tau npaj tseg, nws tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tsis ntev los no rau cov neeg siv khoom, tej zaum ntau dua yog qhov tseeb los ntawm qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm txoj cai nyiaj txiag thiab kev lag luam.

Txij li cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv
TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.571%
nce siab tshaj 4.2% nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, poob nyiaj txiag yields tau pab txhawb ntau yam khoom muaj nqis, suav nrog cov khoom lag luam thiab junk bonds. Cov txiaj ntsig ntawm daim ntawv 10-xyoo, suav nrog Wall Street yog "kev pheej hmoo pub dawb" tiv thaiv cov khoom lag luam twg muaj nuj nqis, tsuas yog txaj muag ntawm 3.6% lig hnub Monday. Yields txav inversely rau cov nqi sib tw

Txawm hais tias cov txiaj ntsig tseem poob qis, qhov kev hloov pauv uas cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj qis qis pab txhawb cov nqi khoom lag luam tuaj yeem mus txog qhov txo qis rov qab, Krinsky piav qhia.

"Thaum peb xav tias qib no tuav, peb xav tias qhov kev so qis dua 3.50% yuav raug suav tias yog kev ncaj ncees ... [w]e muaj qee qhov tsis ntseeg," Krinsky tau hais hauv tsab ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom.

Cov kws tshawb fawb thoob plaws Wall Street tau cia siab tias yuav muaj kev poob qis yuav pib qee lub sijhawm hauv 2023, kev cia siab uas tau txhawb nqa los ntawm lub Treasury yield curves steeply inverted, uas yog pom raws li ib tug txhim khu kev qha recession indicator.

Txhua yam uas muaj cov tub ua lag luam khaws cia ze ntawm US cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam rau lub lim tiam. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog kev tsim khoom-tus nqi loj hlob nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis yuav xaus rau hnub Friday tuaj yeem yog lwm qhov tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam, cov kws tshaj lij hais tias.