Fed tau xa ob 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus paj laum-tus nqi nce mus txog rau xyoo no. Ib qho dhau los ntawm zaj dab neeg no tau hais tias nws tau xa peb.
Nrog rau ob qho tib si hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus nyob rau hauv kev ntxhov siab rau hnub Tuesday, qee tus ntawm Wall Street tau sib cav tias cov tub ua lag luam tau kwv yees qhov tsis txaus ntseeg tias Fed tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev xav tsis thoob 100-cov ntsiab lus-cov paj laum-tus nqi nce siab thaum kaw nws ob hnub txoj cai rooj sib tham rau hnub Wednesday. .
Thaum lub sij hawm pub nyiaj rau cov tub lag luam yav tom ntej tau dhau los xav tias yuav nce siab ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, lossis 0.75 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus, rau hnub Wednesday, lawv qhov kev txhawj xeeb yog tias lub lim tiam dhau los lub Yim Hli Ntuj cov neeg siv khoom lag luam-tus nqi luam tawm, ua ke nrog kev ua lag luam tseem muaj zog, tej zaum yuav ua rau Fed Chair. Jerome Powell thiab lwm tus hawks ntawm Fed's txoj cai tswj hwm pawg neeg uas lawv yuav tsum ua ntau dua li tsuas yog nyob hauv chav kawm thaum lawv tawm tsam los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi.
Hloov chaw, Fed tus tsim txoj cai yuav xav tias lawv yuav tsum ua ntau zog.
Yog tias qhov no tuaj yeem tshwm sim, nws yuav cim qhov kev ua phem tshaj plaws ntawm Fed nruj txij li hnub ntawm Paul Volcker, uas tau ua haujlwm ntawm Fed lub rooj zaum los ntawm 1979 txog 1987, los ntawm ob lub 75-qhov taw tes "jumbo" tus nqi hikes, thiab 50 lub hauv paus-point taug kev hauv lub Tsib Hlis.
Saib: Qhov loj tshaj Fed tus nqi nce hauv 40 xyoo? Nws tuaj yeem tuaj lub lim tiam no.
Ntau tus neeg txhawj xeeb tias nqa rauj kom yuam kev yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev thoob plaws kev lag luam los ntawm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm qhov yuav ua rau "muab tsaws" rau Asmeskas kev lag luam tawm ntawm lub rooj. Lwm tus muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau dua tias kev ua tsis tiav kev lag luam rau pob taws tam sim no tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo loj dua rau txoj kev.
Kev lag luam yuav ua li cas?
Sam Stovall, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm CFRA, tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom tias 100-piv-taw qhia kev taug kev yuav sawv cev rau "kev cuam tshuam ntau dhau" ntawm Fed feem.
"Peb xav tias 100 bps taug kev yuav ua rau Wall Street tsis txaus siab, vim nws yuav qhia tau tias FOMC yog overreacting rau cov ntaub ntawv es tsis ua raws li nws cov phiaj xwm kev ua si, thiab yuav ua rau kom qhov tshwm sim uas FOMC thaum kawg yuav overtighten thiab txo qhov muaj peev xwm ua tiav. Kev tsaws muag muag, ”Stovall sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Nrog rau lub sij hawm luv luv yields twb ze rau lub siab taw tes nyob ib ncig ntawm 4%, ib txwm ua tib zoo choreographed Fed tej zaum yuav tsis xav kom muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam nyob rau hauv xws li ib tug blithe yam.
"Fed tau tshaj tawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus. Yog tias lawv yuav mus rau 100 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, kuv xav tias nws yuav ua rau muaj kev poob siab rau kev ua lag luam, "said David Rubenstein, tus tsim muaj billionaire ntawm private-equity giant Carlyle Group, tau hais thaum lub sij hawm sib tham hnub Monday nrog Fox Business.
Tab sis piv txwv tias Fed xaiv qhov kev xav tsis thoob qhov feem pua tau nce mus, qee tus tuaj yeem pom qhov xwm txheej uas cov khw muag khoom tau sib sau ua ke ntawm lub ntsej muag ntawm Fed ntau dua.
"Tsis tau kwv yees qhov no los ntawm ib qho txhais tau li cas tab sis kuv tuaj yeem pom qhov xwm txheej uas peb tau txais 100 thiab kev ua lag luam tau sib sau ua ke (tom qab thawj zaug yaug) raws li lub tswv yim tias Fed tab tom ripping Band-Aid tawm es tsis txhob maj mam tshem nws," said. Matt Tuttle, CEO ntawm Tuttle Capital Management, hauv email pauv nrog MarketWatch.
Dab tsi yog qhov tseeb?
Kom paub tseeb tias, 100-piv-taw taw mus taug kev tseem pom dav dav raws li qhov tshwm sim tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim. Fed-funds yav tom ntej kev lag luam yog tam sim no tus nqi nyob rau hauv kwv yees li 80% qhov sib txawv ntawm 75-piv-taw-taw tes mus rau hnub Wednesday, nrog qhov sib txawv ntawm tag nrho cov feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus txav mus los ntawm 20%, raws li CME's FedWatch cuab yeej.
Txog tam sim no, Nyiv lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj Nomura tau yog ib qho ntawm ob peb lub tuam txhab muag khoom loj los hu rau 100-qhov tseem ceeb-taw tes mus rau hnub Wednesday.
Tab sis qhov kev sib cav vim li cas Fed tuaj yeem txiav txim siab los ntawm nws txoj cai ntawm kev ua tib zoo choreographed txav tau pom meej meej nrog cov tub ua lag luam, ua pov thawj los ntawm qhov tseeb tias ntau tus kws tshaj lij Wall Street tau xaiv los hais txog qhov muaj peev xwm hauv kev tshawb fawb lawv muab rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab xov xwm. .
Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Tuesday, Nomura tus kws tshaj lij tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntoo khaub lig Charlie McElligott piav qhia vim li cas nws ntseeg tias kev lag luam yog "tus nqi qis dua" qhov kev cia siab ntawm 100-qhov taw qhia-taw tes mus.
Nws lub laj thawj: Ua raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tshiab kawg, Powell tsuas yog tsis tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam zoo rau hnub Wednesday, txij li qhov ntawd yuav ua rau muaj "kev cuam tshuam" hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, uas tshwm sim thaum cov nqi khoom lag luam nce thiab cov nyiaj tau los poob.
Yog tias Powell lub hom phiaj yog kom tsis txhob muaj kev nce nqi nce ntxiv, nws yuav tsum tau ua kom pom tias nws tau "ua tiav hu-hauv nws tus kheej 'inflation' mandate hawkishness," tshwj xeeb tshaj yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag qhia txog qhov nyiaj ua haujlwm-tus nqi kauv tau tuav, McElligott. sau.
McElligott tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Tuesday tias "100 bps yog qhov yuav tsum tau ua nyob rau hauv pem hauv ntej ntawm kev ntaus qhov kev thov-sab ntawm kev nce nyiaj nce siab li sai tau,"
Dab tsi yog qhov lwm txoj kev xaiv?
Yog tias Fed xa tawm 100 lub hauv paus-taw tes mus, xws li kev tawm tsam hnyav yuav yuam kev lag luam kom suav nrog qhov ua tau tias cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig tuaj yeem nce siab tshaj 5% xyoo tom ntej, uas yuav yog qhov tsis zoo rau kev lag luam thiab tej zaum kev lag luam. Qhov no yog vim li cas JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Michael Feroli tau tawm ntawm kev ua 100 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus nws cov ntaub ntawv hauv paus.
Saib: Ib qho nyiaj daus las US tseem tab tom xa ' teeb liab txaus ntshais, 'economists ceeb toom
"Peb xav tias qhov tsis sib xws ntawm 100 lub hauv paus-taw tes txav - txawm tias tsis yog xoom - qis dua ib feem peb ... cov neeg tsav tsheb zoo tsis ua kom lawv nrawm dua thaum lawv mus ze rau lawv qhov chaw," Feroli tau sau ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom luam tawm hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los.
Hloov chaw, raws li Feroli tau qhia rau JPM cov neeg siv khoom lub lim tiam dhau los, Asmeskas megabank cia siab tias Fed yuav xa ib qho kev nce siab me ntsis hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, nrog rau kev nce ntxiv 25 lub hauv paus taw tes rau xyoo tom ntej. Qhov ntxiv 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm kev cia siab kom nruj yuav pab coj lub sab sauv ntawm Fed lub hom phiaj tus paj laum mus rau 4.25% los ntawm lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav tom ntej, uas tseem ntau dua li ntau qhov xav tau rov qab rau lub Xya Hli.
Txhua yam dhau qhov ntawd yuav yog nyob ntawm lub xeev ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag.
"Yog tias kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm tsis muaj qhov txias txias los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Ob Hlis, peb yuav nrhiav rau Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas kom txuas ntxiv kom nruj hauv 25bp txav mus txog thaum qhov ntawd tshwm sim," Feroli ntxiv.
Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau ua lag luam qis dua rau hnub Tuesday, nrog S&P 500
SPX,
Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
khov kho nyob rau hauv lub liab. Meanwhile, 2-xyoo Treasury yield
TUBMUSD 02Y,
tau ua lag luam nyob rau hauv qis dua 4%, pom tias yog ib theem uas tuaj yeem tsim kev mob taub hau ntau dua rau kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees.
Saib: Yog vim li cas nce Treasury yields yog ib tug luag ntawm lub lag luam Tshuag
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-fear-a-full-percentage-point-fed-rate-hike-would-unnerve-wall-street-11663695546?siteid= yhoof2&yptr=yahoo