Warren Buffett's kev nqis peev txheej txheem ntawm kev yuav cov lag luam zoo nrog kev dav economic moat ntawm qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tseem yog lub tswv yim zoo rau cov tub ua lag luam nruab nrab, raws li Morningstar CEO Kunal Kapoor, txawm tias ntxias tau-nplua nuj-ua lag luam sai.
"Yog lawm, kuv xav tias nws ua," Kapoor hais rau Yahoo Nyiaj Txiag (video saum toj no) thaum nug yog tias kev nqis peev zoo li "Oracle of Omaha" tseem ua haujlwm nyob rau niaj hnub no kev lag luam kev lag luam siab. "Keeb kwm tau pom tias thaum ntau tus neeg hais tias nws tsis ua haujlwm, qhov ntawd yog qhov tseeb thaum koj xav rov qab mus rau nws."
Cov neeg nyiam ua raws li Berkshire Hathaway tus thawj tswj hwm txoj hauv kev sib sib zog nqus-tus nqi tsom mus rau nws nyiam qhov kev ntsuas nws nyiam ntawm kev nqis peev hauv khw muag khoom: "Buffett Indicator," raws li nws tau hu los ntawm legions ntawm devotees, uas yuav siv lub Wilshire 5000 Index (saib raws li tag nrho cov khoom lag luam tus nqi) thiab faib nws los ntawm US GDP txhua xyoo.
Qhov taw qhia Buffett tau nce mus rau koob meej tom qab tus billionaire sau txog nws hauv a 2001 Fortune Magazine tsab xov xwm nrog tus kws sau ntawv Fortune ntev thiab Buffett tus neeg sab hauv Carol Loomis.
"Qhov piv txwv muaj qee qhov kev txwv hauv kev qhia koj yam koj xav paub," Buffett tau piav qhia hauv tsab xov xwm. "Txawm li cas los xij, tej zaum nws yog ib qho kev ntsuas zoo tshaj plaws ntawm qhov kev ntsuas ntsuas ntawm txhua lub sijhawm."
Tsis ntev los no, qhov taw qhia ntawd tau pom cov cim qhia tias cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tau pheej yig txaus mus rau hauv tag nrho. Nws txuas ntxiv mus ncig nws lub xyoo 2021 siab, txawm tias xyoo 2022 tau ua rau muaj kev txaus ntshai rau kev lag luam thaum nce cov paj laum thiab kev lag luam qeeb.
Saib ntawm cov lej, Buffett Indicator sawv ntawm 149.7%, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm GuruFocus. Qhov ntawd tau poob qis los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv siab tshaj 202% thaum Lub Yim Hli 2021, txawm hais tias tseem zoo dua cov qib pom thaum lub sijhawm COVID-19 kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2020 thiab kev lag luam poob qis ntawm 2008-2009.
"Lub khw lag luam tau muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua raws li Buffett Indicator," cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm GuruFocus sau. "Raws li keeb kwm piv txwv ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam peev tshaj GDP (tam sim no ntawm 149.7%), nws zoo li yuav rov qab los 2.3% ib xyoos los ntawm qib kev ntsuas no, suav nrog cov nyiaj faib."
Yog li ntawd, Morningstar's Kapoor xav tias nyob twj ywm tus neeg mob tam sim no yog qhov tseem ceeb rau cov tub ua lag luam, vim tias kev nrhiav tus nqi zoo los yuav ib feem ntawm kev lag luam yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev rov qab mus ntev dua.
"Yog tias koj tuaj yeem tau txais cov [kev lag luam] ntawm tus nqi tsim nyog thiab tuav cov tuam txhab no rau lub sijhawm ntev, koj cov peev feem ntau sib xyaw vim tias lawv yog cov lag luam zoo thiab lawv ua haujlwm zoo nrog kev faib peev," Kapoor tau hais. "Lub tswv yim yuav-thiab-tuav yuav zoo li ua haujlwm zoo nyob rau lub sijhawm."
Brian Sozzi yog ib qho editor-at-large thiab thauj tog rau nkoj ntawm Yahoo FinanceCov. Ua raws li Sozzi ntawm Twitter @BrianSozzi thiab nyob rau LinkedIn.
Nyeem cov xov xwm tshiab nyiaj txiag thiab lag luam los ntawm Yahoo Finance
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-investing-like-warren-buffett-still-works-according-to-morningstars-ceo-132907357.html