Muaj kev maj nrawm mus yuav "I-daim ntawv cog lus," kev tiv thaiv nyiaj txiag los ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas, uas TreasuryDirect lub vev xaib poob.
I-bonds tau yog ib qho kev nqis peev kub tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo. Cov neeg uas tsis tau tham txog kev nqis peev tau qhia kuv txog I-bonds lawv tau yuav. Cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau nug kuv yog tias kuv puas tau yuav kuv daim ntawv cog lus "tsis tau."
Cov neeg lag luam uas yuav ua ntej hnub Friday lub sijhawm kawg kaw nyob rau hauv tus nqi paj ntawm 9.6% (luv luv), uas yuav poob mus rau kwv yees li 6.5% yog tias koj tsis nco nws.
Zoo, koj tuaj yeem suav kuv tawm. Kuv tsis tau maj mus yuav I-bonds, thiab kuv baffled los ntawm euphoria lawv zoo li yuav engender. Kuv xav tias lawv yog tag nrho ib qho zoo nkauj mediocre deal, thiab muaj ib yam dab tsi zoo dua.
Vim li cas lawv thiaj li muaj kev sib haum xeeb? Zoo, koj raug txwv rau $ 10,000 tus nqi ib xyoos (koj tuaj yeem nyem qhov ntawd rau $ 15,000 yog tias koj them koj cov se tseemfwv qib siab thiab tau txais cov nyiaj rov qab - tsis ua tsaug). Cov paj laum yog tag nrho taxable. Koj yuav tsum tuav lawv rau tsib xyoos kom tau txais kev txaus siab tag nrho. Qhov "9.6%" cov paj laum yog ib qho kev hloov pauv txhua xyoo ntawm 6 lub hlis rov qab los, thiab npaj siab yuav poob. Huag, thiab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm txhua qhov (tej zaum), yog qhov hu ua "tiag" rov qab yog bupkis: Zero.
Qhov "tseem ceeb" rov qab yog qhov uas cov kws lag luam hu ua koj tus nqi paj laum nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd: Hauv lwm lo lus, koj tus nqi hauv kev yuav khoom, tom qab kho kev nce nqi. (Yog tias kev nqis peev muaj, hais tias, 8% tus nqi paj, tab sis kev nce nqi yog 8%, nws muaj 8% "nominal" rov qab tab sis 0% "tseem" rov qab.)
Yog vim li cas kuv tsis txaus siab rau I-bonds tsis muaj dab tsi cuam tshuam nrog kev nce nqi. Nws yog qhov tseeb ntawm no, nws tau pom meej metastasized los ntawm tus nqi zog, thiab nws yuav ua pov thawj tias yuav muaj ntau dua li Wall Street tam sim no zoo li xav.
Tab sis yog tias, zoo li kuv, koj txhawj xeeb txog cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua muaj lwm txoj kev nqis peev uas kuv pom ntau, ntau qhov nyuaj dua li I-bonds. Lawv muab kev rov qab zoo dua. Lawv muab tib lub tseem fwv lav lav. Thiab tseem tsis tau lawv feem ntau tsis quav ntsej los ntawm cov hordes stampeding frantically nias "refresh" ntawm TreasuryDirect lub vev xaib.
Kuv tab tom tham txog TIPS: Nyiaj txiag kev lag luam-tiv thaiv kev ruaj ntseg.
Cov no yog cov ntawv cog lus, lossis IOUs, muab los ntawm Txiv Plig Sam thiab txhawb nqa los ntawm tib txoj kev ntseeg thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm Tsoomfwv Meskas uas koj tau txais los ntawm T Bills, 10 Xyoo Nyiaj Txiag Sau thiab lwm yam. Tab sis lawv tuaj nrog twist. Es tsis txhob lav kom them koj tus nqi tas li ntawm cov paj laum, zoo li ib txwm siv US Treasury bonds, lawv lav them koj tus nqi tas li ntawm cov paj laum txhua xyoo. nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm kev nce nqi.
Thiab tam sim no, thaum I-daim ntawv cog lus tau them tus nqi "tiag tiag" ntawm cov paj laum ntawm 0%, lossis kev nce nqi ntxiv rau 0%, TIPS mus sij hawm ntev tau ntaus los ntawm ze li 2 tag nrho cov ntsiab lus. ib xyoos.
Koj tuaj yeem yuav cov nyiaj tsis txwv ntawm TIPS. Koj muaj peev xwm muaj lawv nyob rau hauv cov se vaj tse nyiaj laus cov nyiaj laus. Auj, thiab lawv yooj yim mus yuav. Koj tuaj yeem yuav TIPS daim ntawv cog lus ncaj qha los ntawm txhua tus broker. Lossis koj tuaj yeem muaj lawv los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke lossis kev sib pauv pauv nyiaj, xws li Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities Fund
VAIPX,
-0.08%,
iShares TIPS Bonds ETF
Tswv yim,
-0.12%,
iShares 0-5 Xyoo TIPS Bond ETF
STIP,
-0.16%,
los yog Pimco 15+ Xyoo US TIPS ETF
LTPZ,
+ 0.29%.
Mus saib daim duab saum toj no. Nws qhia qhov nruab nrab "tiag tiag" rov qab los ntawm 30 Xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus, thiab nws tau hloov li cas thaum lub sijhawm. Txoj kab siab dua, qhov zoo dua qhov rov qab los. Tam sim no peb tau txais qhov kev pom zoo tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj kaum xyoo. Peb caug-xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav them koj cov nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv txog 1.8% ib xyoos. 10-xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav them koj cov nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv txog 1.6%.
Yog tias kuv yuav 10-xyoo thiab tuav nws kom txog rau thaum nws loj hlob hauv 2032 kuv tau lees tias yuav xaus li 16% nplua nuj nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev yuav khoom, tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi tshwm sim rau kev nce nqi hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej. Uas yog kiag li tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Thiab yog tias kuv yuav daim ntawv cog lus 30 xyoo thiab tuav nws kom txog thaum nws loj hlob hauv 2052 kuv tau lees tias yuav xaus li 70% nplua nuj nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus yuav khoom tiag tiag.
Thiab kuv yuav tsis mob siab rau qhov me ntsis dab tsi tshwm sim rau kev nce nqi. Yuav tsis cuam tshuam kuv. Nws yuav cia li dhau ncaj qha mus rau hauv tus nqi paj siab dua ntawm kuv daim ntawv cog lus.
Cia cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias qhov nruab nrab ntev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam ib txwm muaj ntau dua, qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm 5% thiab 7% hauv ib xyoos nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm kev nce nqi (nyob ntawm seb leej twg suav nws thiab li cas). Cov TIPS rov qab no yuav tsum nkag siab txog qhov "tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo" cov cuab tam, tsis yog nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm (tej zaum) rov qab mus ntev dua koj tuaj yeem khwv tau los ntawm cov pheej hmoo.
Tam sim no 10 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus them nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv rau 1.6%, thaum qhov tsis tu ncua, (tsis yog kev nce nqi-hloov) 10 Xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag them 4% ib xyoos. Yog li cov Treasurys ib txwm yuav tsuas yog qhov zoo dua thawj koom ruam yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab ntawm 2.4% ib xyoos lossis tsawg dua rau kaum xyoo tom ntej.
Hmoov zoo nrog qhov ntawd.
TIPS tau sib sau ua ke hauv ob peb hnub dhau los. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias tus nqi rau qee tus tau nce me ntsis, thiab tus nqi paj tau poob. (Bonds ua hauj lwm zoo li ib tug seesaw: Thaum tus nqi nce yield los yog paj paj poob, thiab vice versa.) Tab sis tus nqi ntawm cov paj yog tseem compelling.
TIPS yog ib yam ntawm cov menyuam ntsuag cov cuab yeej cuab tam, uas tej zaum yuav yog vim li cas lawv zoo li yuav raug saib xyuas. Cov tsev kawm ntawv thiab cov tub ua lag luam uas xav tau "Tsev Nyiaj Txiag" feem ntau tsuas yog yuav cov khoom tsis tu ncua, uas them tus nqi qiv nyiaj tas li.
TIPS yog thawj zaug tsim los ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas thaum xyoo 1990s. Lawv tau ua raws li tsoomfwv Askiv, uas tsim nws tus kheej hauv xyoo 1980s. Tab sis ob qho tib si tau tsim tsuas yog tom qab kev khiav tawm ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm xyoo 1960 thiab 1970s. Yog li lawv tsis tau (tseem) tau siv rau vim li cas lawv tau tsim, uas yog los tiv thaiv koj los ntawm kev txhawb nqa, kev nce nqi xyoo dhau los. Qee zaum kuv xav txog lawv li kev pov hwm hluav taws kub hauv lub nroog uas tseem tsis tau muaj hluav taws kub loj.
Qhov no tej zaum yuav yog vim li cas TIPS cov nqi tau nce siab rau xyoo no, txawm tias thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov. Cov tub ua lag luam tau pov tseg tag nrho cov ntawv cog lus, thiab lub sij hawm ntev dua cov ntawv cog lus qhov phem tshaj lawv tau poob. Nws kuj tsis tau pab tias TIPS tuaj rau hauv lub xyoo hnyav dhau los ntawm kev ntsuas qhov tseeb feem ntau: TIPS daim ntawv cog lus uas yuav them koj cov nyiaj rov qab zoo yog tias koj yuav lawv hnub no tau them 0%, lossis txawm tias qhov tsis zoo rov qab los, yog tias koj yuav lawv lig xyoo tas los.
PIMCO 15+ Xyoo US TIPS Index ETF
LTPZ,
+ 0.29%
tau poob ze li ntawm 40% txog rau xyoo no, ze li ntau npaum li Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF
EDV,
-0.84%.
Qhov no ua rau me me lossis tsis muaj kev xav tshwj tsis yog tias koj tsuas saib TIPS ua lwm hom kev sib cog lus. Lub sij hawm ntev nominal bonds poob tus nqi hauv kev nce nqi vim tias tag nrho cov nyiaj paj laum yav tom ntej no muaj nqis tsawg dua hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev yuav khoom. Ib yam yog, los ntawm kev txhais, tsis muaj tseeb rau TIPS daim ntawv cog lus.
Legendary British tus thawj tswj nyiaj Jonathan Ruffer tau tsoo lub nruas txog TIPS-thiab kev nce nqi-txhua xyoo. Txog tam sim no tus nqi tau poob, txoj kev ntev. Tej zaum nws ua tsis ncaj rau lawv. Los yog tej zaum nws tseem ntxov dhau lawm.
Yav tas los US "tus huab tais daim ntawv cog lus" Bill Gross tsis ntev los no tau tawm los rau lub sijhawm luv luv TIPS.
TIPS muaj ib tug loj downside piv rau I-bonds: Yog hais tias koj yuav TIPS los ntawm ib tug ETF, los yog yog hais tias koj yuav ib tug neeg daim ntawv cog lus thiab ces muag lawv ua ntej lawv loj hlob, koj muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv txoj kev xav poob nyiaj. Qhov ntawd yog vim tus nqi txav mus los-raws li peb tau pom xyoo no. Txoj kev xav yog tias koj yuav lawv zoo tshaj lub ntsej muag tus nqi koj tuaj yeem poob nyiaj yog tias peb raug kev txom nyem xyoo thiab xyoo ntawm deflation (uas tsis zoo li yuav).
Ntawm qhov tod tes, kuv tau yuav ib tus neeg TIPS daim ntawv cog lus ntawm, ze lossis txawm tias qis dua lub ntsej muag, thiab kuv yuav zoo siab tuav lawv mus txog thaum lawv loj hlob. Yog li kuv tsis txhawj xeeb. Kuv tau lees tias yuav tau txais rov qab rau lub ntsej muag tus nqi, ntxiv rau tag nrho cov nyiaj nce ntxiv hauv lub sijhawm kuv tuav daim ntawv cog lus, ntxiv rau cov paj laum.
Kuv qhov kev pheej hmoo loj tshaj plaws yog "tus nqi pheej hmoo." Yog tias kuv yuav daim ntawv cog lus ntev them nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv 1.8%, kuv tuaj yeem plam tawm: Daim ntawv cog lus tuaj yeem poob qis, thiab ib tus neeg uas tos tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo dua. Thiab yog tias kuv muaj TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tau txais txiaj ntsig ntxiv rau 1.8% hauv ib xyoos, thiab cov khw lag luam tau txais koj cov nyiaj nce ntxiv 6% hauv ib xyoos, kuv kuj yuav plam tawm.
(Tshaj 30 xyoo, qhov xwm txheej, cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tau txais 6% ib xyoos hauv "tiag" cov ntsiab lus yuav ua rau koj 470% nplua nuj, tsis yog 70% nplua nuj.)
Thiab thaum lawv tuaj yeem nqis mus rau tus nqi, lawv tuaj yeem nce mus. Tseeb tiag, ob lub lis piam dhau los kuv tau noj hmo nrog tus thawj tswj nyiaj hauv London uas tau kwv yees qhov kev sib tsoo xyoo no, uas nws cov nyiaj tau nce mus txog 2022, thiab leej twg hais tias lawv cov thawj koom ruam loj tshaj plaws yog nyob rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus mus sij hawm ntev, feem ntau TIPS thiab British sib npaug. Lawv xav tias cov no yuav them tawm yog tias muaj kev poob nyiaj txiag (cov neeg yuav xav tau daim ntawv cog lus), kev rov qab los (cov paj laum yuav rov qab los, thiab tib neeg yuav xav tau cov ntawv cog lus), lossis kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv (cov neeg yuav xav tau kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi).
Ua qhov koj yuav. Yog hais tias TIPS mus sij hawm ntev tsis poob qis koj tuaj yeem luag ntawm kuv tus nqi. Tab sis ntev npaum li kuv tuav kuv cov kev nqis peev, kuv tau lees tias yuav tau nyiaj thaum kawg - tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi tshwm sim.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-i-dont-want-i-bonds-11666984508?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Vim li cas kuv tsis xav tau I-bonds
Muaj kev maj nrawm mus yuav "I-daim ntawv cog lus," kev tiv thaiv nyiaj txiag los ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas, uas TreasuryDirect lub vev xaib poob.
I-bonds tau yog ib qho kev nqis peev kub tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo. Cov neeg uas tsis tau tham txog kev nqis peev tau qhia kuv txog I-bonds lawv tau yuav. Cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau nug kuv yog tias kuv puas tau yuav kuv daim ntawv cog lus "tsis tau."
Cov neeg lag luam uas yuav ua ntej hnub Friday lub sijhawm kawg kaw nyob rau hauv tus nqi paj ntawm 9.6% (luv luv), uas yuav poob mus rau kwv yees li 6.5% yog tias koj tsis nco nws.
Zoo, koj tuaj yeem suav kuv tawm. Kuv tsis tau maj mus yuav I-bonds, thiab kuv baffled los ntawm euphoria lawv zoo li yuav engender. Kuv xav tias lawv yog tag nrho ib qho zoo nkauj mediocre deal, thiab muaj ib yam dab tsi zoo dua.
Vim li cas lawv thiaj li muaj kev sib haum xeeb? Zoo, koj raug txwv rau $ 10,000 tus nqi ib xyoos (koj tuaj yeem nyem qhov ntawd rau $ 15,000 yog tias koj them koj cov se tseemfwv qib siab thiab tau txais cov nyiaj rov qab - tsis ua tsaug). Cov paj laum yog tag nrho taxable. Koj yuav tsum tuav lawv rau tsib xyoos kom tau txais kev txaus siab tag nrho. Qhov "9.6%" cov paj laum yog ib qho kev hloov pauv txhua xyoo ntawm 6 lub hlis rov qab los, thiab npaj siab yuav poob. Huag, thiab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm txhua qhov (tej zaum), yog qhov hu ua "tiag" rov qab yog bupkis: Zero.
Qhov "tseem ceeb" rov qab yog qhov uas cov kws lag luam hu ua koj tus nqi paj laum nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd: Hauv lwm lo lus, koj tus nqi hauv kev yuav khoom, tom qab kho kev nce nqi. (Yog tias kev nqis peev muaj, hais tias, 8% tus nqi paj, tab sis kev nce nqi yog 8%, nws muaj 8% "nominal" rov qab tab sis 0% "tseem" rov qab.)
Yog vim li cas kuv tsis txaus siab rau I-bonds tsis muaj dab tsi cuam tshuam nrog kev nce nqi. Nws yog qhov tseeb ntawm no, nws tau pom meej metastasized los ntawm tus nqi zog, thiab nws yuav ua pov thawj tias yuav muaj ntau dua li Wall Street tam sim no zoo li xav.
Tab sis yog tias, zoo li kuv, koj txhawj xeeb txog cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua muaj lwm txoj kev nqis peev uas kuv pom ntau, ntau qhov nyuaj dua li I-bonds. Lawv muab kev rov qab zoo dua. Lawv muab tib lub tseem fwv lav lav. Thiab tseem tsis tau lawv feem ntau tsis quav ntsej los ntawm cov hordes stampeding frantically nias "refresh" ntawm TreasuryDirect lub vev xaib.
Kuv tab tom tham txog TIPS: Nyiaj txiag kev lag luam-tiv thaiv kev ruaj ntseg.
Cov no yog cov ntawv cog lus, lossis IOUs, muab los ntawm Txiv Plig Sam thiab txhawb nqa los ntawm tib txoj kev ntseeg thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm Tsoomfwv Meskas uas koj tau txais los ntawm T Bills, 10 Xyoo Nyiaj Txiag Sau thiab lwm yam. Tab sis lawv tuaj nrog twist. Es tsis txhob lav kom them koj tus nqi tas li ntawm cov paj laum, zoo li ib txwm siv US Treasury bonds, lawv lav them koj tus nqi tas li ntawm cov paj laum txhua xyoo. nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm kev nce nqi.
Thiab tam sim no, thaum I-daim ntawv cog lus tau them tus nqi "tiag tiag" ntawm cov paj laum ntawm 0%, lossis kev nce nqi ntxiv rau 0%, TIPS mus sij hawm ntev tau ntaus los ntawm ze li 2 tag nrho cov ntsiab lus. ib xyoos.
Koj tuaj yeem yuav cov nyiaj tsis txwv ntawm TIPS. Koj muaj peev xwm muaj lawv nyob rau hauv cov se vaj tse nyiaj laus cov nyiaj laus. Auj, thiab lawv yooj yim mus yuav. Koj tuaj yeem yuav TIPS daim ntawv cog lus ncaj qha los ntawm txhua tus broker. Lossis koj tuaj yeem muaj lawv los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke lossis kev sib pauv pauv nyiaj, xws li Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities Fund
-0.08% ,
-0.12% ,
-0.16% ,
+ 0.29% .
VAIPX,
iShares TIPS Bonds ETF
Tswv yim,
iShares 0-5 Xyoo TIPS Bond ETF
STIP,
los yog Pimco 15+ Xyoo US TIPS ETF
LTPZ,
Mus saib daim duab saum toj no. Nws qhia qhov nruab nrab "tiag tiag" rov qab los ntawm 30 Xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus, thiab nws tau hloov li cas thaum lub sijhawm. Txoj kab siab dua, qhov zoo dua qhov rov qab los. Tam sim no peb tau txais qhov kev pom zoo tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj kaum xyoo. Peb caug-xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav them koj cov nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv txog 1.8% ib xyoos. 10-xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus yuav them koj cov nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv txog 1.6%.
Yog tias kuv yuav 10-xyoo thiab tuav nws kom txog rau thaum nws loj hlob hauv 2032 kuv tau lees tias yuav xaus li 16% nplua nuj nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev yuav khoom, tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi tshwm sim rau kev nce nqi hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej. Uas yog kiag li tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Thiab yog tias kuv yuav daim ntawv cog lus 30 xyoo thiab tuav nws kom txog thaum nws loj hlob hauv 2052 kuv tau lees tias yuav xaus li 70% nplua nuj nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus yuav khoom tiag tiag.
Thiab kuv yuav tsis mob siab rau qhov me ntsis dab tsi tshwm sim rau kev nce nqi. Yuav tsis cuam tshuam kuv. Nws yuav cia li dhau ncaj qha mus rau hauv tus nqi paj siab dua ntawm kuv daim ntawv cog lus.
Cia cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias qhov nruab nrab ntev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam ib txwm muaj ntau dua, qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm 5% thiab 7% hauv ib xyoos nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm kev nce nqi (nyob ntawm seb leej twg suav nws thiab li cas). Cov TIPS rov qab no yuav tsum nkag siab txog qhov "tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo" cov cuab tam, tsis yog nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm (tej zaum) rov qab mus ntev dua koj tuaj yeem khwv tau los ntawm cov pheej hmoo.
Tam sim no 10 xyoo TIPS daim ntawv cog lus them nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv rau 1.6%, thaum qhov tsis tu ncua, (tsis yog kev nce nqi-hloov) 10 Xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag them 4% ib xyoos. Yog li cov Treasurys ib txwm yuav tsuas yog qhov zoo dua thawj koom ruam yog tias kev nce nqi nruab nrab ntawm 2.4% ib xyoos lossis tsawg dua rau kaum xyoo tom ntej.
Hmoov zoo nrog qhov ntawd.
TIPS tau sib sau ua ke hauv ob peb hnub dhau los. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias tus nqi rau qee tus tau nce me ntsis, thiab tus nqi paj tau poob. (Bonds ua hauj lwm zoo li ib tug seesaw: Thaum tus nqi nce yield los yog paj paj poob, thiab vice versa.) Tab sis tus nqi ntawm cov paj yog tseem compelling.
TIPS yog ib yam ntawm cov menyuam ntsuag cov cuab yeej cuab tam, uas tej zaum yuav yog vim li cas lawv zoo li yuav raug saib xyuas. Cov tsev kawm ntawv thiab cov tub ua lag luam uas xav tau "Tsev Nyiaj Txiag" feem ntau tsuas yog yuav cov khoom tsis tu ncua, uas them tus nqi qiv nyiaj tas li.
TIPS yog thawj zaug tsim los ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas thaum xyoo 1990s. Lawv tau ua raws li tsoomfwv Askiv, uas tsim nws tus kheej hauv xyoo 1980s. Tab sis ob qho tib si tau tsim tsuas yog tom qab kev khiav tawm ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm xyoo 1960 thiab 1970s. Yog li lawv tsis tau (tseem) tau siv rau vim li cas lawv tau tsim, uas yog los tiv thaiv koj los ntawm kev txhawb nqa, kev nce nqi xyoo dhau los. Qee zaum kuv xav txog lawv li kev pov hwm hluav taws kub hauv lub nroog uas tseem tsis tau muaj hluav taws kub loj.
Qhov no tej zaum yuav yog vim li cas TIPS cov nqi tau nce siab rau xyoo no, txawm tias thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov. Cov tub ua lag luam tau pov tseg tag nrho cov ntawv cog lus, thiab lub sij hawm ntev dua cov ntawv cog lus qhov phem tshaj lawv tau poob. Nws kuj tsis tau pab tias TIPS tuaj rau hauv lub xyoo hnyav dhau los ntawm kev ntsuas qhov tseeb feem ntau: TIPS daim ntawv cog lus uas yuav them koj cov nyiaj rov qab zoo yog tias koj yuav lawv hnub no tau them 0%, lossis txawm tias qhov tsis zoo rov qab los, yog tias koj yuav lawv lig xyoo tas los.
PIMCO 15+ Xyoo US TIPS Index ETF
+ 0.29%
-0.84% .
LTPZ,
tau poob ze li ntawm 40% txog rau xyoo no, ze li ntau npaum li Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF
EDV,
Qhov no ua rau me me lossis tsis muaj kev xav tshwj tsis yog tias koj tsuas saib TIPS ua lwm hom kev sib cog lus. Lub sij hawm ntev nominal bonds poob tus nqi hauv kev nce nqi vim tias tag nrho cov nyiaj paj laum yav tom ntej no muaj nqis tsawg dua hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev yuav khoom. Ib yam yog, los ntawm kev txhais, tsis muaj tseeb rau TIPS daim ntawv cog lus.
Legendary British tus thawj tswj nyiaj Jonathan Ruffer tau tsoo lub nruas txog TIPS-thiab kev nce nqi-txhua xyoo. Txog tam sim no tus nqi tau poob, txoj kev ntev. Tej zaum nws ua tsis ncaj rau lawv. Los yog tej zaum nws tseem ntxov dhau lawm.
Yav tas los US "tus huab tais daim ntawv cog lus" Bill Gross tsis ntev los no tau tawm los rau lub sijhawm luv luv TIPS.
TIPS muaj ib tug loj downside piv rau I-bonds: Yog hais tias koj yuav TIPS los ntawm ib tug ETF, los yog yog hais tias koj yuav ib tug neeg daim ntawv cog lus thiab ces muag lawv ua ntej lawv loj hlob, koj muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv txoj kev xav poob nyiaj. Qhov ntawd yog vim tus nqi txav mus los-raws li peb tau pom xyoo no. Txoj kev xav yog tias koj yuav lawv zoo tshaj lub ntsej muag tus nqi koj tuaj yeem poob nyiaj yog tias peb raug kev txom nyem xyoo thiab xyoo ntawm deflation (uas tsis zoo li yuav).
Ntawm qhov tod tes, kuv tau yuav ib tus neeg TIPS daim ntawv cog lus ntawm, ze lossis txawm tias qis dua lub ntsej muag, thiab kuv yuav zoo siab tuav lawv mus txog thaum lawv loj hlob. Yog li kuv tsis txhawj xeeb. Kuv tau lees tias yuav tau txais rov qab rau lub ntsej muag tus nqi, ntxiv rau tag nrho cov nyiaj nce ntxiv hauv lub sijhawm kuv tuav daim ntawv cog lus, ntxiv rau cov paj laum.
Kuv qhov kev pheej hmoo loj tshaj plaws yog "tus nqi pheej hmoo." Yog tias kuv yuav daim ntawv cog lus ntev them nyiaj nce ntxiv ntxiv 1.8%, kuv tuaj yeem plam tawm: Daim ntawv cog lus tuaj yeem poob qis, thiab ib tus neeg uas tos tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo dua. Thiab yog tias kuv muaj TIPS daim ntawv cog lus tau txais txiaj ntsig ntxiv rau 1.8% hauv ib xyoos, thiab cov khw lag luam tau txais koj cov nyiaj nce ntxiv 6% hauv ib xyoos, kuv kuj yuav plam tawm.
(Tshaj 30 xyoo, qhov xwm txheej, cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tau txais 6% ib xyoos hauv "tiag" cov ntsiab lus yuav ua rau koj 470% nplua nuj, tsis yog 70% nplua nuj.)
Thiab thaum lawv tuaj yeem nqis mus rau tus nqi, lawv tuaj yeem nce mus. Tseeb tiag, ob lub lis piam dhau los kuv tau noj hmo nrog tus thawj tswj nyiaj hauv London uas tau kwv yees qhov kev sib tsoo xyoo no, uas nws cov nyiaj tau nce mus txog 2022, thiab leej twg hais tias lawv cov thawj koom ruam loj tshaj plaws yog nyob rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus mus sij hawm ntev, feem ntau TIPS thiab British sib npaug. Lawv xav tias cov no yuav them tawm yog tias muaj kev poob nyiaj txiag (cov neeg yuav xav tau daim ntawv cog lus), kev rov qab los (cov paj laum yuav rov qab los, thiab tib neeg yuav xav tau cov ntawv cog lus), lossis kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv (cov neeg yuav xav tau kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi).
Ua qhov koj yuav. Yog hais tias TIPS mus sij hawm ntev tsis poob qis koj tuaj yeem luag ntawm kuv tus nqi. Tab sis ntev npaum li kuv tuav kuv cov kev nqis peev, kuv tau lees tias yuav tau nyiaj thaum kawg - tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi tshwm sim.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-i-dont-want-i-bonds-11666984508?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo