Vim li cas Nyiaj Dollar Strong Thiab Khw Muag Khoom Muag Blunders tuaj yeem Pab Push Inflation Los Ntawm Xyoo Tom Ntej

Tojsiab

Txawm hais tias muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau ntxiv txog kev lag luam poob qis, ntau tus kws tshaj lij ntseeg tias kev txo nqi yav tom ntej thiab txo cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam tuaj yeem pab txo tus nqi ntawm kev nce nqi sai dua li qhov xav tau, muaj peev xwm muab qhov xav tau ntau ntxiv rau cov neeg Asmeskas cov nyiaj ntsuab thiab cov tub ua lag luam ceev faj. qhov cuam tshuam ntawm ceev ceev ceev txoj cai nyiaj txiag.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Tab sis yog ntab mab Cov nqi roj yuav thawb tag nrho cov nyiaj nce ntxiv rau xyoo no, cov nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb, uas tsis suav nrog cov khoom noj khoom haus tsis zoo thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob, tau nce siab "thiab yuav poob sai dua li kev lag luam thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve xav tau," cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Pantheon Macro tau sau rau hnub Wednesday.

Nrog rau cov nyiaj muaj zog dua pib ua kom cov khoom lag luam pheej yig dua thiab cov khoom lag luam nce zuj zus pib quell cov khoom tsis txaus, cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag tsim kev nce nqi, uas poob nthav ntaus lub 41-xyoo siab ntawm 8.6% nyob rau hauv lub Tsib Hlis, yuav poob mus rau 4.9% thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo tom ntej raws li core inflation eases los ntawm 6% mus rau 3.7% - txaus rau Fed cov neeg ua hauj lwm kom yooj yim rau cov paj laum hikes uas tau rattling. kev lag luam.

Cov khw muag khoom ntsib kev siv nyiaj ntau dua-tsis txaus siab rau cov neeg siv khoom yog "tso rau saum roob ntawm cov khoom muag" thiab nyob rau ntawm qhov kev ua phem ntawm kev txo nqi rau lub hlis tom ntej tom qab kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam vim kev xav tau ntau ntxiv thaum muaj kev sib kis, sau tseg tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Adam Crisafulli ntawm Vital Knowledge Media.

Ntawm cov teem rau txiav nqi ntawm cov khoom xws li khaub ncaws thiab rooj tog rau TV thiab khoom siv yog cov khw muag khoom loj xws li Walmart, Costco thiab Target, uas lub hli dhau los teased cov nyiaj cheb yuav los tom ntej los pab tswj cov nqi khoom muag tom qab kev poob nyiaj poob qis.

Crisafulli hais tias "Txoj kev nce nqi hauv qab lub zog tuaj yeem hloov mus rau qhov kev coj ua zoo dua," hais tias Crisafulli, pom "kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb" tuaj yeem ua tau nyob rau lub asthiv tom ntej, thiab tseem hais txog "kev poob qis" hauv cov nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam xws li nplej, pob kws, tooj liab thiab hlau. ore.

Muaj cov xov xwm zoo rau cov nqi roj: Cov nqi lag luam wholesale tau poob rau kwv yees li $ 3.75 ib nkas loos los ntawm kwv yees li $ 4 nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no, txhais tau hais tias cov nqi roj muag muag - zaum ze rau $ 5 ib nkas loos - tau teem caij poob "kuj heev" nyob rau ob peb lub lis piam tom ntej. , raws li Pantheon, txawm hais tias nws tsis paub meej tias lub sijhawm so yuav kav ntev npaum li cas.

Contra

Ob qhov chaw uas yuav tsis pab nyiaj txiag yooj yim sai sai: Tsheb thiab nqi xauj tsev (uas tau coj tus nqi nce mus thoob plaws qhov kev kis thoob qhov txhia chaw) tseem raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis hauv keeb kwm txawm hais tias nce tus nqi pib quell liab-kub thov.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm tsoomfwv kev txhawb nqa, kev txwv cov saw hlau thiab, tsis ntev los no, kev ua tsov ua rog ntawm Ukraine, kev nce qib ntawm kev nce nqi siab tau thawb Fed kom pib rau lub voj voog kev lag luam nruj tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo - kev lag luam poob thiab ua rau muaj kev ntshai poob nyiaj txiag. "Cov tib neeg tau raug kev txom nyem los ntawm kev nce nqi siab," Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell ua tim khawv ua ntej Congress rau hnub Thursday, ceeb toom tias nws tseem yog "tseem ceeb heev" rau Fed los kho tus nqi ruaj khov, ua ntej lees paub tias nws yuav yog "kev nyuaj heev" kom tsis txhob muaj kev lag luam poob qis thaum ua. yog li ntawd.

Target

Tom qab Target cov nyiaj khwv tau los lub hli tas los, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam kev lag luam Tom Essaye ntawm Sevens Report tau taw qhia tias cov neeg muag khoom muag tau yuav cov khoom lag luam tsawg dua (xws li cov khaub ncaws thiab khoom siv hluav taws xob) kom siv nyiaj ntau dua rau cov khoom noj qis dua (xws li khob cij thiab qe), thiab tseem hloov siv deb ntawm cov npe khoom lag luam mus rau cov ntawv ntiag tug pheej yig dua - cov cim qhia tias "cov neeg siv khoom tau pib raug nyem los ntawm kev nce nqi."

Thawj Cov Neeg thuam

"Peb qhov teeb meem loj tshaj plaws rau cov tub ua lag luam nyob rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej no yuav yog kev nce nqi, kev nce nqi thiab kev nce nqi," hais tias Sébastien Page, tus thawj coj peev ntawm T. Rowe Nqe. "Nws yog lub tshuab xa mus rau txhua qhov kev pheej hmoo uas peb tab tom ntsib."

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

Andrzej Skiba, tus thawj coj ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tas li ntawm $ 127 billion BlueBay Asset Management, tau hais hauv email lus hnub Wednesday. "Ntau ntau yuav nyob ntawm seb qhov kev nce nqi teb sai npaum li cas."

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag rau lub Rau Hli yog teem kom tshaj tawm rau Lub Xya Hli 13. Qhov nruab nrab, cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag qhov project tus nqi yuav nce siab ntawm ib xyoos twg ntawm 8.7% lub hlis no, raws li Cleveland Fed. Qhov ntawd yuav thawb nyiaj txiag txhua xyoo mus rau qib siab tshaj txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 1981.

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