Qhov twg los nqis peev los yeej Inflation

Kev nce nqi zoo li yuav qeeb, tab sis kev kwv yees yog tias nws yuav nce siab rau ib ntus. Stephen Nelson, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Birchwood Peev hauv Vista, Calif., muaj qee lub tswv yim uas yuav tso koj cov nyiaj kom nws tshaj qhov Consumer Price Index.

Lub teeb Larry: Tus neeg ua lag luam tuaj yeem ua dab tsi nrog kev nce nqi tseem nce siab?

Stephen Nelson: XNUMX Lab tus kiv cua tos koj rau Webtalk! Hauv ib puag ncig ntawm kev nce nqi siab, cov tub ua lag luam nrhiav txoj hauv kev los tawm tsam nws hauv lawv cov ntaub ntawv. Ib qho kev nqis peev uas koj tau hnov ​​​​txog tsis ntev los no yog TIPS lossis Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

TIPS yog cov kev nyab xeeb uas nws tus thawj tswj hwm tau khi rau Consumer Price Index, qhov feem ntau siv nyiaj txiag ntsuas. Raws li kev nce nqi nce, tus thawj tswj hwm nce. Nrog deflation, uas yog ib qho kev txo qis hauv cov nqi, tus thawj tswj hwm txo. Thaum qhov kev ruaj ntseg loj hlob tuaj, US Treasury them tus thawj lossis hloov tus thawj tswj hwm, qhov twg ntau dua. Qhov no suab zoo li ib tug investor txoj kev daws rau kev nce nqi.

Yog li thaum kev nce nqi nce, koj yuav TIPS? Suab yooj yim txaus.

Ntawm no yog vim li cas nws tsis yog: Xyoo rau hnub tim, US daim ntawv cog lus indexes poob 11%, raws li ntsuas los ntawm Vanguard Bond Index pauv pauv nyiaj. Tab sis TIPS poob yuav luag tib yam, raws li ntsuas los ntawm iShares TIPS Bond ETF.

Tos… nws tsis zoo li yog TIPS tau ua lawv txoj haujlwm. Kev nce nqi yog nyob ntawm 7.2% tab sis TIPS poob ntau npaum li cov ntawv cog lus tsis tu ncua! Dab tsi muab?

Qhov yuam kev loj yog xav tias los ntawm kev muaj TIPS koj tab tom khiav ntawm kev puas tsuaj. Nws yog deb dhau simplistic. Yog tias qhov ntawd yog, ces tsis muaj leej twg yuav txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi vim tias lawv txhua tus tsuas yog yuav TIPS lawv tus kheej.

Lub teeb: Qhia peb seb TIPS ua haujlwm li cas.

Nelson: TIPS cov nqi suav nrog tsis yog rau theem tam sim no ntawm kev nce nqi tab sis qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev hloov pauv nyiaj txiag yav tom ntej.

Txawm hais tias koj yuav TIPS ncaj qha lossis ntawm ETF koj tau koom nrog hauv kev sib tw nrog cov neeg sib tw thiab cov muag khoom tas li. Yog tias kev xav hloov pauv ntawm qhov nyiaj txiag yav tom ntej yuav yog, ces tus nqi ntawm cov kev nyab xeeb yuav hloov pauv. Nrog rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhia tias nws npaj yuav tawm tsam kev nce nqi los ntawm kev nce nqi, qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi yav tom ntej tam sim no qis dua yog li cov neeg yuav khoom tsis kam them tus nqi siab dua.

Wb hais tias koj yuav ib tug tsib-xyoo TIPS auctioned rau lub Kaum Hlis 21st, 2021, muag rau $109.51 ntawm tus duas. Tom qab ntawd tsib xyoos TIPS auctioned rau lub Plaub Hlis 21, 2022, rau $102.76. Qhov no yog 6.2% poob ntawm TIPS tus nqi.

Ib yam li kev lag luam ua lag luam los ntes cov kev hloov pauv luv luv, koj yuav tsum koom nrog kev xav theem ob. Nws yog ib qho uas yuav tsum paub qhov tshwm sim, kev nce nqi nce, tab sis nws yog ib qho kev kawm ntxiv kom paub seb cov neeg (lub khw) yuav teb li cas rau cov xov xwm ntawd. Thiab ib yam li txhua lub sijhawm ua lag luam, koj feem ntau yuam kev!

Yog tias koj paub tias kev nce nqi nyob ntawm no, koj tsis tuaj yeem yuav TIPS ETF thiab xav kom tsis txhob poob. Cov kev lag luam ntse dhau lawm thiab twb tau xav txog qhov no.

Lub teeb: Yog li dab tsi yog qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev muaj TIPS, yog li ntawd?

Nelson: Qhov kuv tau hais tsis tau txhais hais tias TIPS tawg thiab tsis ua qhov lawv qhia meej tias lawv ua. Qhov tseeb, TIPS ETF, zoo li iShares TIPS Bond ETF, tau khwv tau kwv yees li 3% txhua xyoo rau tsib xyoos dhau los, me ntsis kev nce nqi. Raws li koj nthuav dav horizons, lub hom phiaj ntawm kev ua kom nrawm nrog kev nce nqi thiab kev nqis peev kev lag luam converge, tab sis nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ze, tej yam yuav zoo li chaotic: TIPS down 5% thiab inflation nce 8%.

Lwm qhov haujlwm ib puag ncig yog ua tus tswv TIPS ncaj qha. Koj tuaj yeem tuav daim ntawv cog lus kom txog rau thaum kev loj hlob thiab koj yuav tau lav nws lub ntsej muag tag nrho thiab kwv yees li nws cov txiaj ntsig rau kev loj hlob. Qhov no yog technically tib yam li muaj ib tug ETF raws li tus nqi pheej yig tab sis koj yuav tsis pom nws, uas yuav pab tau puas siab puas ntsws.

Thaum kawg, TIPS-txawm yuav ncaj qha los ntawm Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag lossis ntawm ETF-tej zaum yuav muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws raws li txoj hauv kev los tiv thaiv lub sijhawm ntev, tsis xav txog kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv, vim tias tsis hais seb lawv yuav yuav li cas, lawv tus nqi twb qhia txog kev lag luam kev cia siab rau. nyiaj txiag yav tom ntej.

Lub teeb: Cov kev nqis peev twg uas tau them raws li kev nce nqi hedges tsis ua haujlwm tsis ntev los no?

Nelson: Kub rau ib. Nws yog ib tug cruddy hedge txij li thaum peb mus tawm tus qauv kub. Kub tau ceev nrawm nrog kev nce nqi ntau xyoo, tab sis tam sim no tsis nce thaum kev nce nqi nce. Mus daim duab.

Cov khoom yog lwm yam. Cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo dua thaum muaj kev sib tw ntawm kev nce nqi tab sis tsis muaj dab tsi nyob nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm ntawd. Puas yog koj OK los nqis peev hauv kev nyab xeeb uas stink rau lub sijhawm ntev?

Lub teeb: Lwm yam tshaj li TIPS, qhov twg cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem nrhiav kev nqis peev zoo uas ua rau muaj kev nce nqi.

Nelson: Cov khoom lag luam yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws kev lag luam mus sij hawm ntev hedge. Tab sis lawv tsis tas li txav mus rau tandem nrog kev nce nqi txhua xyoo.

Txawm tias tam sim no nws nyuaj ua rau kev sib txuas ntawm cov khoom lag luam ua ib qho kev tiv thaiv zoo thaum kev nce nqi nce 8% thiab cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua 20%.

Tab sis ntawm no yog ob qhov tseeb txog cov khoom lag luam: US cov khoom lag luam tsis tau tshaj tawm qhov tsis zoo rov qab rau 20 xyoo lossis ntev dua. Thiab keeb kwm, cov khoom lag luam tau nruab nrab ntawm 6.5% rov qab tiag tiag, tom qab kev nce nqi.

Rau lub sijhawm ntev lub qab ntug, txoj kev npaj rau kev nce nqi yog twb muaj - tus kheej cov khoom lag luam. Tsis txhob sim kho qhov teeb meem nyiaj txiag nrog kev ruaj ntseg peev uas koj tsis tau muaj. Tsis muaj ib qho kev daws teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws nyob ntawd.