Cov neeg siv khoom xav tias kev nce nqi tseem yuav tsum tau npau taws ua ntej nws txias, raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Bank ntawm New York cov ntawv nyeem tshiab tshaj plaws ntawm tib neeg cov kev cia siab nyiaj txiag.
nce nqi ntaus 9.1% ntawm lub xyoo nyob rau lub Rau Hli, 41-xyoo siab, uas yog siab dua li cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag lossis cov neeg lag luam kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tau xav tau.
Cov neeg zoo li xav tias qhov kub taub hau ntawm plaub-xyoo-xyoo-kev nce nqi siab yog tawg, tab sis nws yuav siv sij hawm ib ntus. Cov neeg siv khoom tau hais tias lawv cia siab tias kev nce nqi yuav nqis mus rau 3.6% hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej, raws li New York Fed qhov kev soj ntsuam txuas ntxiv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom cia siab, uas tau tshaj tawm ua ntej hnub Wednesday Tus Neeg Siv Khoom Index.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tseem tsis ntseeg. Chris Zaccarelli, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Independent Advisor Alliance hauv Charlotte, NC, hais tias, "Rau qhov uas peb pheej pom kev nce nqi nce nqi - piv txwv li, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tshaj 8%, tab sis txhua yam ntawm 4% lossis siab dua - Fed yuav tsum tau nruj dua" nrog nws cov phiaj xwm nce qib.
Rusty Vanneman, tus thawj coj kev nqis peev ntawm Orion Advisor Solutions hais tias, "Peak inflation yuav tsum tau tos."
Ntau tam sim ntawd, cov neeg siv khoom xav tias kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav txias me ntsis. Txawm hais tias cov neeg koom nrog kev tshawb fawb xav tias cov nqi tsev tseem yuav nce ntxiv, lawv xav tias qhov kev cia siab tias kev loj hlob yuav tsis ntse, lawv hais.
Cov neeg siv khoom tau hais tias lawv xav tias tus nqi tsev yuav nce kwv yees li 4.4% nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, cov neeg koom nrog kev tshawb fawb tau hais. Qhov ntawd yog nqis los ntawm 5.8% txhua xyoo tus nqi tsev nce siab uas lawv tau kwv yees nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas dhau los, thiab cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias nws yog tus nqi qis tshaj plaws ntawm cov lus nug txij li Lub Ob Hlis 2021. Lub lim tiam dhau los, cov nqi nruab nrab ntawm 30-xyoo tsev qiv nyiaj poob mus rau 5.3%, thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev lag luam qeeb.
Thaum cov tub ua lag luam, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas thiab cov neeg tsim cai tswj xyuas cov ntaub ntawv tshiab, muaj qee cov cim qhia ntawm tus nqi txias ntawm cov neeg siv khoom. Tus nqi ntawm cov tsheb siv tau tshwm sim normalizing, Goldman Sachs
GS,
cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais lub lim tiam dhau los. Tab sis lawv tsis pom tib qhov kev kho tus nqi ua si rau cov nqi vaj tsev, lawv ntxiv.
Nov yog lwm qhov glimmer ntawm tus nqi nyem: Hnub Friday, cov nqi roj nruab nrab yog $ 4.58 ib nkas loos, raws li AAA. Qhov ntawd tau nqis los ntawm $ 4.80 ib lub lis piam dhau los thiab nqis los ntawm $ 5.01 ib nkas loos cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli.
Tus nqi tsis tu ncua - txawm tias nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub caij ntuj sov mus ncig ua si - cuam tshuam nrog kev sib xyaw ua ke nrog rau kev ua kom zoo dua qub, qis roj av tus nqi thiab qee qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog, cov neeg soj ntsuam tau hais. Cov lus nug yog ntev npaum li cas tus nqi tuaj yeem mus qis dua, lawv ntxiv.
Tib neeg yuav cia siab rau tus nqi txias dua yav tom ntej, tab sis Kev Tshawb Fawb Cov Neeg Siv Khoom Siv tau pom tias lawv tus kheej xav tias sov tam sim no.
Hauv kev siv zog txuas ntxiv txhawm rau txhim kho kev nce nqi, Fed tau npaj siab kom nce tus paj laum tseem ceeb uas qhia txog kev suav ntawm lwm tus nqi. Raws li cov paj laum nce, ntau tus neeg koom nrog kev tshawb fawb tau hais tias nws nyuaj rau kev nkag mus rau credit piv rau ib xyoos dhau los. Ntau tus neeg tau hais tias nws yuav nyuaj dua los coj mus rhaub credit rau xyoo tom ntej.
Cov neeg koom nrog kev tshawb fawb tau txhawj xeeb ntau ntxiv txog lawv cov nyiaj txiag piv rau ib xyoos dhau los thiab qhov muaj feem ntawm qhov tsis muaj nuj nqis tsawg kawg nkaus hauv peb lub hlis tom ntej tau nce. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov tsis tau them nyiaj tau nce los ntawm 0.2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus mus rau 11.3%, tus lej piv rau qib ua ntej kis thoob qhov txhia chaw.
Cov neeg siv khoom xav tau mus txog qhov qis qis txhua lub hli tas los, raws li ib qho kev ntsuas ntev.
Kev tawg nyiaj txiag hauv Asmeskas cov tsev neeg tau tshwm sim hauv lwm qhov kev tshawb fawb ib yam nkaus. Monmouth University tsis ntev los no pov npav pom ntau tshaj plaub ntawm 10 tus neeg (42%) tau hais tias lawv yog tawm tsam kom nyob hauv lawv cov nyiaj txiag tam sim no. Qhov ntawd yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov neeg teb uas tau hais tias yog rau cov lus nug ntawd hauv tsib xyoos uas cov neeg xaiv tsa tau nug nws, Monmouth cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais.
Kev lag luam cia siab tias Fed yuav nce nws cov txiaj ntsig txiaj ntsig los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm nws lub rooj sib tham Lub Xya Hli 26-27 thiab ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hais tias nws kuj tseem yuav tau nce tus nqi los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hauv cov rooj sib tham tom ntej kom txias liab-kub nyiaj txiag. Tab sis nws ntsib txoj cai sib npaug: nce nqi, tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam cov neeg siv khoom thiab thawb Asmeskas kev lag luam mus rau kev lag luam poob qis.
Qee tus cia siab tias yuav muaj keeb kwm taug kev: "Lub Rau Hli Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas tau pom tias nws yuav hnov mob rau txhua lub hlis kev nyeem ntawv nce nqi," Citigroup kws lag luam coj los ntawm Andrew Hollenhorst sau rau cov neeg siv khoom tom qab lub Rau Hli nce nqi cov ntaub ntawv raug tso tawm. "Tam sim no peb cia siab tias Fed yuav xa 100 lub hauv paus tus nqi nce ntawm lub rooj sib tham tom qab lub hlis no."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-will-inflation-peak-us-consumers-see-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-ny-fed-survey-suggests- 11657559422?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo