Dab tsi ntxiv rau lumber raws li nws zoo li yog 2022 cov khoom lag luam phem tshaj plaws

Walter Kunisch Jr., tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas qib siab ntawm HTS Cov Khoom Muag Khoom hais tias "CME yav tom ntej lumber tau, los txog tam sim no, qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom lag luam yav tom ntej hauv 2022," hais tias Walter Kunisch Jr. Qhov "tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam vaj tsev, thaum muaj kev nce siab hauv cov paj laum thiab cov nqi tsev, yog tsim kom muaj cua daj cua dub thiab tsis muaj kev xav tau rau cov ntoo."

Kev tsim kho vaj tse tshiab hauv Asmeskas tau poob qis thaum Lub Kaum Hli los ntawm 4.2% rau lub caij nyoog hloov kho txhua xyoo ntawm 1.425 lab, raws li Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho cim ntawm kev tsim kho kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog li qhov vaj tse kev lag luam tawm tsam nrog nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj sai.

Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj kev cog lus los tawm tsam US kev nce nqi, suav nrog kev nruj cov qauv kev sau ntawv, yog "tshem tawm cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev thiab kom lawv khiav mus rau kev nyab xeeb thiab kev nplij siab ntawm khw xauj tsev," Kunisch hais.

Lub teb chaws nruab nrab 30-xyoo kev qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj tau muag hauv ob peb lub lis piam dhau los mus rau qis dua 7%. Tab sis tus nqi tsis ntev los no, ntawm 6.78%, tseem nyob ntawm "siab tsis pom txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2001," nws hais. Thiab qis dua kev thov hauv tsev thiab muaj zog US lumber imports tau "combustible cocktail" rau US lumber futures price.

Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, Asmeskas cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias tsev neeg ntau lub tsev pib poob qis los ntawm 0.5%, thaum ib leeg-tsev neeg tej yaam num poob 6.1%. Ntau tsev neeg pib xav tau cov ntoo tag nrho tsawg dua, thiab lawv kuj tau nce raws li qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov vaj tsev pib, ua rau kom txo qis qhov xav tau, hais tias Scott Reaves, tus thawj coj ntawm kev ua haujlwm hav zoov ntawm Domain Timber Advisors.

Cov ntawv tso cai nyob hauv Asmeskas, uas tuaj yeem yog lub suab nrov rau kev tsim vaj tsev yav tom ntej, tau hloov kho raws caij nyoog ntawm 1.526 lab hauv Lub Kaum Hli, piv nrog 1.841 lab hauv Lub Ib Hlis.

Lumber tuaj yeem yog "kev lag luam bellwether" rau Asmeskas kev lag luam, hais tias Kunisch, thiab nws cov nqi tsis zoo xyoo no yog qhov qhia tau tias muaj kev poob qis. Cov Asmeskas kev lag luam loj hlob ntawm ib xyoos ib zaug 2.9% pace hauv peb lub hlis twg, tom qab tshaj tawm ob peb lub hlis twg poob qis.

Domain Timber Advisors xav kom ib downturn nyob rau hauv lumber xav tau Nyob rau ob xyoos tom ntej no los yog li ntawd, Reaves hais. Kev thov yuav pib nce ntxiv thaum lub xyoo txhiab xyoo mus txog lub hnub nyoog yuav tsev.

Txawm li cas los xij, tsob ntoo tsis zoo li yuav rov qab los, lossis txhawb nqa, tsis ntev los no tau ua tiav tus nqi siab, Reaves hais. Lumber yav tom ntej ntaus 2022 intraday siab ntawm $ 1,477.40 hauv lub Peb Hlis, qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2021, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Cov tshiab lumber yav tom ntej cog lus, uas tau pib thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab muaj ntau qhov kev cog lus me me me, yuav thaum kawg hloov daim ntawv cog lus qub. Nws pauv ntawm $532.50 thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 29.

Hais txog cov khoom siv, Reaves hais tias tau muaj kev nce hauv cov chaw tsim khoom ntoo thoob plaws Tebchaws Meskas Qhov muaj peev xwm tsim tau ntau dua tuaj yeem ua kom nruj cov khoom siv nyob rau tsib xyoos tom ntej, uas "zoo rau cov tswv cuab ntoo," nws hais. Cov tswv yuav muaj qhov hloov pauv tau los muag lawv cov ntoo thaum lub sijhawm xav tau siab thiab txo qhov muag thaum qhov kev thov yog mos, nws hais.

NCREIF Timberland Index, uas muaj 466 peev-qib cov cuab yeej ntoo, pom kev rov qab los ntawm ze li ntawm 2.4% nyob rau lub quarter thib peb, nce ntawm 1.9% rau tib lub hlis twg xyoo tas los., raws li National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, txawm li cas los xij, cov ntoo tau ntsib kev xav tau ntsig txog lub taub hau thaum cov khoom siv thiab kev xa khoom tseem tuaj yeem ua raws, HTS Cov Khoom Muag 'Kunisch hais. Txawm hais tias kev ntshuam yog kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov nyiaj muaj zog lossis rov tsim kho cov khoom siv tsis txaus, "kev thov qeeb thiab cov khoom siv nce ntxiv tsis yog qhov sib xyaw zoo" rau cov nqi ntoo.