Yuav ua li cas los ntawm kev lag luam nyob rau hauv rau lub lis piam tom ntej, ua ntej Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve revamps nws yooj yim-nyiaj stance

Qhov teeb meem yog tias Fed lub tswv yim kuj tau muab cov tub ua lag luam txog rau lub lis piam rau brood txog yuav ua li cas cov paj laum yuav nce siab npaum li cas hauv 2022, thiab yuav ua li cas nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj yuav poob qis, vim tias Fed rub cov levers kom txias nyiaj txiag uas yog nyob rau theem kawg pom hauv lub thaum ntxov 1980s.

Hloov chaw ntawm kev ua lag luam jitters, kev tos-thiab-saib mus kom ze muaj Wall Street's "kev ntshai ntsuas," Cboe Volatility Index
VIX,
-9.28%,
nce 73% hauv thawj 19 hnub ua lag luam ntawm lub xyoo, raws li Dow Jones Market Data Nruab Nrab, raws li tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv muaj rov qab mus rau xyoo 1990.

"Cov tub ua lag luam tsis nyiam dab tsi yog qhov tsis paub tseeb," said Jason Draho, tus thawj coj ntawm kev faib khoom vaj khoom tsev Americas ntawm UBS Global Wealth Management, hauv kev xam phaj hauv xov tooj, taw qhia txog kev muag khoom uas tshuav ob peb lub ces kaum ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tsis muaj kev puas tsuaj rau lub Ib Hlis.

Txawm hais tias muaj kev sib tw ntse kawg rau hnub Friday, tus paj laum-sensitive Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+ 3.13%
tseem nyob hauv thaj chaw kho, txhais tau tias yog lub caij nplooj zeeg tsawg kawg yog 10% los ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv kaw tam sim no. Qhov phem tshaj, Russell 2000 Performance index ntawm me me-capitalization stocks
ROV,
+ 1.93%
yog nyob rau hauv lub lag luam dais, nqis tsawg kawg yog 20% ​​ntawm nws lub Kaum Ib Hlis 8 ncov.

John McClain, tus thawj coj saib xyuas kev lag luam kom tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo thiab cov tswv yim qiv nyiaj lag luam ntawm Brandywine Global Investment Management said. "Yog vim li cas tsis muaj qhov chaw nkaum."

McClain tau taw qhia txog qhov tsis zoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo ntawm Asmeskas kev nqis peev-qib koom nrog kev lag luam
LQD,
+ 0.11%,
lawv high-yield
HYG,
+ 0.28%
counterparts thiab cov nyiaj tau los tas li
AGG,
+ 0.07%
feem ntau pib lub xyoo, tab sis kuj yog qhov sib sib zog nqus rout nyob rau hauv kev loj hlob thiab muaj nuj nqis stocks, thiab poob nyob rau hauv thoob ntiaj teb
EEM,
+ 0.49%
kev nqis peev.

"Txhua tus yog nyob rau hauv liab."

Tos-thiab-saib

Powell tau hais rau hnub Wednesday lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab "yog lub siab" txhawm rau nce cov paj paj hauv lub Peb Hlis. Kev txiav txim siab yuav ua li cas txo qis nws ze li $ 9 trillion daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas yuav tuaj tom qab, thiab pob khawm ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag.

"Peb ntseeg hais tias los ntawm lub Plaub Hlis, peb yuav pib pom kev nce nqi ntawm kev nce nqi," McClain tau hais hauv xov tooj, taw qhia txog cov teebmeem hauv qab, lossis kev cuam tshuam ntawm tus nqi uas tshwm sim thaum muaj kev sib kis uas ua rau kev sib piv txhua xyoo tsis yooj yim. "Qhov ntawd yuav muab cov av npog rau Fed los ua cov ntaub ntawv-raws li txoj hauv kev."

"Tab sis txij li tam sim no mus txog thaum ntawd, nws yuav muaj ntau yam tsis hloov pauv."

'Peak panic' txog hikes

Vim tias Powell tsis lees paub lub tswv yim ntawm kev taug kev nce qib hauv 50-piv qhov nce ntxiv, lossis kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov rooj sib tham ua tiav, Wall Street tau skewed rau tus nqi hauv txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag ntau dua li ntau qhov xav tau tsuas yog ob peb lub lis piam dhau los. .

CME Group's FedWatch Tool rau hnub Friday tau tso ze li 33% txoj hauv kev ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov phiaj xwm nce mus rau 1.25% mus rau 1.50% ntau yam los ntawm Fed lub Kaum Ob Hlis lub rooj sib tham, los ntawm txoj hauv kev kawg saum toj no zero tsis tau teeb tsa hauv pob zeb.

nyeem: Fed pom raws li kev nce qib paj paj xya zaug hauv 2022, lossis ib zaug ntawm txhua lub rooj sib tham, BofA hais

"Nws yog kev sib tw sib tw rau leej twg tuaj yeem kwv yees tus nqi nce siab tshaj plaws," Kathy Jones, tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag ruaj khov ntawm Schwab Center for Financial Research, hais rau MarketWatch. "Kuv xav tias peb tab tom ncav cuag qhov siab kawg ntawm Fed tus nqi hikes."

Jones tau hais tias "Peb muaj peb tus nqi nce ntxiv, tom qab ntawd nws nyob ntawm seb lawv txiav txim siab siv daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas kom nruj," Jones tau hais. Pab pawg Schwab pegged Lub Xya Hli yog qhov pib rau kwv yees li $ 500 txhiab daus las txhua xyoo rub tawm ntawm Fed cov tuav hauv 2022, nrog rau $ 1 trillion txo qhov muaj peev xwm sab nraud.

Jones tau hais tias "Muaj ntau daim ntawv luv luv ntawm Fed daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas, yog li lawv tuaj yeem yob tawm sai sai, yog tias lawv xav tau," Jones hais.

Lub sijhawm ua si nyab xeeb?

Nws yog ib qho yooj yim kom pom yog vim li cas qee cov cuab yeej raug ntaus thaum kawg yuav xaus rau ntawm cov npe khoom. Txawm hais tias, txoj cai nruj dua tseem tsis tau pib tag nrho, qee qhov haujlwm uas tau nce mus rau qhov siab kiv taub hau tau pab los ntawm Fed kev txhawb nqa hnyav thaum muaj kev sib kis tsis tau zoo.

Jones tau hais tias, "Nws yuav tsum tau khiav nws txoj haujlwm," Jones tau hais tias, nws feem ntau siv "ntiv nplhaib tawm lub hnab tshos kawg" ntawm froth ua ntej kev lag luam pom hauv qab.

Cryptocurrencies
BTCUSD,
-0.40%
tau ua ib qho kev raug mob tseem ceeb nyob rau lub Ib Hlis, nrog rau kev ntxhov siab nyob ib puag ncig "dawb-kos," lossis cov koom haum tshwj xeeb tau txais txiaj ntsig (SPACs), nrog tsawg kawg peb lub phiaj xwm IPOs tso rau lub lim tiam no.

Dominic Nolan, tus thawj coj ntawm Pacific Asset Management tau hais tias "Koj muaj cov chaw muab kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam tso cov pa roj, thiab txav mus nrawm nrawm," "Vim li cas nce kev pheej hmoo tam sim no?"

Thaum Fed muaj peev xwm muab cov tub ua lag luam yuav pom tseeb txoj hauv kev ntawm kev nruj dua, kev lag luam yuav tsum muaj peev xwm zom cov khoom zoo rau niaj hnub no, nws hais ntxiv tias, 10-xyoo Treasury yield.
TUBMUSD 10Y,
1.771%
tseem yog qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb. "Yog hais tias qhov nkhaus flattens loj npaum li Fed nce tus nqi, nws tuaj yeem thawb Fed kom nruj dua [tightening] hauv kev mob siab rau txoj kev nkhaus."

Kev nce qib Treasury yields tau thawb cov nqi hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nqis peev-qib tuam txhab nyiaj lag luam ze li 3%, thiab lub zog-hnyav high-yield tivthaiv ze rau 5%.

"Cov txiaj ntsig siab ntawm 5%, rau kuv, qhov ntawd zoo dua rau lub ntiaj teb ntau dua 4%," Nolan tau hais, ntxiv tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab tseem zoo li muaj zog, txawm tias theem siab tshaj plaws hauv kev sib kis tau dhau mus, thiab yog tias kev lag luam loj hlob nruab nrab ntawm 40-xyoo. siab.

Draho ntawm UBS, zoo li lwm tus neeg xam phaj rau zaj dab neeg no, saib qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis hauv 12 lub hlis tom ntej. Nws hais ntxiv tias thaum kev nce nqi nce siab nyob rau xyoo 1980s, cov neeg siv cov nuj nqis kuj tseem nyob ze 40-xyoo qis. "Cov neeg siv khoom muaj lub cev muaj zog, thiab tuaj yeem tswj hwm tus nqi paj siab dua."

Asmeskas cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag los saib hnub Monday yog Chicago PMI, uas yog lub hli qus. Lub Ob Hlis pib nrog Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau qhib txoj haujlwm thiab tawm haujlwm hnub Tuesday. Tom qab ntawd nws ADP daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev ua haujlwm ntiag tug thiab tus tswv tsev tus nqi hnub Wednesday, tom qab los ntawm qhov loj rau hnub Friday: Lub Ib Hlis txoj haujlwm tshaj tawm.