Dab tsi Industries ua tau zoo nyob rau hauv ib qho L-zoo li nyiaj poob hauj lwm?

Tus yuam sij takeaways

• Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas Credit Suisse Zoltan Pozsar pom Asmeskas kev lag luam dhia mus rau hauv L-zoo li kev lag luam ua ntej kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv
• Kev lag luam L-shaped tshwm sim thaum kev lag luam poob qis thiab siv sijhawm ntev, qeeb qeeb kom rov zoo
• L-zoo li cov nyiaj rov qab yog cuam tshuam nrog qee lub sijhawm kev lag luam phem tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm, thiab tej zaum yuav suav nrog kev hloov pauv nyiaj txiag loj thiab nyiaj txiag.
• Qee qhov kev lag luam zoo tshaj plaws los nqis peev rau hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag muaj xws li kev kho mob, kev siv hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob, thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam.

Raws li kev nce nqi nce mus ntxiv thiab lwm qhov Fed tus nqi nce siab zoo li yuav nce ntxiv, kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam loj hlob tuaj. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov tseeb ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm thim rov qab no txawv raws li tus neeg koj nug.

Qee tus, zoo li tus kws xam nyiaj txiag Sam Snaith, kwv yees qhov me me "pasta lub tais rov qab" uas peb yuav maj mam ntab hauv thiab tawm.

Tab sis lwm tus, zoo li Credit Suisse lub ntiaj teb lub taub hau ntawm luv luv-term paj zoo tswv yim Zoltan Pozsar, tsis ntseeg. Raws li nws qhov kev txheeb xyuas kev lag luam tshiab kawg, Tebchaws Asmeskas yuav xav kom muaj kev lag luam sib sib zog nqus, ntev dua kev lag luam kom tswj tau nyiaj txiag thiab txo qis kev lag luam.

Tshwj xeeb, nws ntseeg tias peb tab tom mus rau qhov hu ua "L-zoo li kev lag luam."

Tab sis vim li cas?

Zoltan Pozsar's L-shaped tsom xam

Raws li nws cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb tshiab, Pozsar ntseeg tias tam sim no tus qauv ntawm kev nce nyiaj nce siab yuav tsum tau kho kev lag luam loj dua.

Vim yog kev hloov pauv ntawm macroeconomic (xws li, kev tsov rog Russia-Ukraine thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj kev kaw tsis tu ncua), nws xav tias Fed's 'muab tsaws' yog me ntsis ntau dua li npau suav ntawm yeeb nkab. Nws kuj tau hais txog kev txwv kev nkag tebchaws thiab kev kis tus kabmob kis mus rau qhov tsis tuaj yeem ua tus pabcuam tseem ceeb rau kev ua lag luam nruj.

Nws tau hais tias "Kev ua tsov rog yog kev nce nqi," nws hais. "Xav txog kev tsov rog kev lag luam raws li kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-tsav West, qhov twg theem ntawm kev thov tau nce siab, thiab kev tsim khoom-tsav East, qhov twg qib ntawm cov khoom tau nce siab los pab cov kev xav tau ntawm West." Tom qab cov kev sib raug zoo no tau dhau mus, nws hais ntxiv, "kev muab khoom rov qab."

Raws li qhov tshwm sim, nws sib cav tias kev nce nqi tam sim no yog qhov teeb meem ntawm cov txheej txheem, tsis yog kev sib tw. Kev ua tsov ua rog, kev kaw tsis tu ncua thiab kev lag luam nruj dua tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam thiab kev nce nqi uas tsis tuaj yeem daws tau los ntawm lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm kev nce qib.

Hloov chaw, Pozsar pom Fed hiking cov paj laum siab li 6% thiab "[ua kom lawv] siab rau ib ntus kom ntseeg tau tias kev txiav cov nqi yuav tsis ua rau kev lag luam rov qab ... Cov kev pheej hmoo yog qhov uas Powell yuav sim nws qhov zoo tshaj plaws los tiv thaiv kev nce nyiaj txiag, txawm tias tus nqi ntawm 'kev nyuaj siab' thiab tsis tau txais kev xaiv tsa dua. " Qhov tshwm sim, nws kwv yees, tuaj yeem yog L-zoo li kev poob qis, uas yuav tob dua, ntev dua thiab qeeb dua kom rov zoo dua li lwm txoj hauv kev.

Pozsar txoj kev xav zaum ntawm qhov tsis sib xws nrog ntau tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag thiab Fed. Kev kwv yees tam sim no tau teeb tsa tus paj laum nce siab nyob ib puag ncig 3.5%, nrog ntau qhov kev cia siab me ntsis kev puas tsuaj ntev ntev los ntawm ib puag ncig kev lag luam niaj hnub no. Cov neeg ua lag luam kuj tsis pom zoo nrog qhov kev tshuaj ntsuam, yog tias lub hli tas los lub Treasury market rally yog ib qho taw qhia.

Kev lag luam nyiaj txiag yog dab tsi?

Peb mam li dhia mus rau hauv cov nuances ntawm L-zoo li kev poob qis ib ntus. Ua ntej, cia peb cheb rov qab los txhais qhov kev lag luam kev lag luam nws tus kheej yog dab tsi.

Kev lag luam poob qis yog qhov kev lag luam tseem ceeb (feem ntau ntsuas los ntawm kev poob qis ntawm GDP, lossis cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev) uas kav ntev li ob peb lub hlis twg. Txawm tias tsis kaj siab, lawv raug suav tias yog ib qho kev ua haujlwm tsis tu ncua ntawm kev lag luam.

Txhua qhov kev lag luam poob qis pib zoo ib yam, nrog rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev poob qis los yog maj mam poob qis. Tab sis yuav ua li cas lawv xaus sib txawv, los ntawm bouncing rov qab tam sim ntawd, ob-dipping mus rau ib tug thib ob recession los yog siv xyoo rau rov qab.

Lub npe recessions

Economists tau hu lub hli lossis xyoo tom qab kev lag luam poob qis "lub sijhawm rov qab los." Lawv sau npe rov qab los raws li lawv qhov zoo sib xws rau cov tsiaj ntawv ntawm cov tsiaj ntawv thaum kev ntsuas xws li GDP lossis cov nqi ua haujlwm tau npaj rau ntawm daim duab, xws li:

• V-shaped recessions. V-shaped recessions pib nrog lub caij nplooj zeeg tam sim ntawd thiab rov qab los uas ze li sai tau. Economists feem ntau xav txog V-zoo li kev poob nyiaj txiag yog qhov xwm txheej zoo tshaj plaws. (Xav tias 2001 post-dot-com npuas kev lag luam.)
• U-shaped recessions. Cov kev lag luam no poob qis thiab rov qab qeeb qeeb me ntsis, tab sis nyob hauv qab ntev dua. Xyoo 1971-1978 kev txom nyem yog ib qho piv txwv tseem ceeb.
• W-shaped recessions. Kev lag luam W-shaped yog qhov tseem ceeb ob V- lossis U-zoo li kev lag luam rov qab-rau-rov qab. Kuj hu ua "ob npaug-dip recessions," lawv tshwm sim thaum kev lag luam rov qab, rov qab (feem ntau sai) thiab dhia dua. Qhov kev poob qis hauv xyoo 1980s tuaj yeem suav tias yog W-zoo li kev lag luam.
• K-zoo li recessions. K-zoo li kev poob nyiaj txiag yog ib lo lus tshiab uas tau tsim los piav qhia txog kev rov qab los tom qab kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Qhov tseem ceeb, K-zoo li kev lag luam tshwm sim thaum ib feem ntawm kev lag luam rov qab los, thaum lwm lub dab dej lossis rov qab qeeb dua, npaj "K" ntawm daim duab.

Thiab thaum kawg, cia peb saib qhov kev poob qis uas tau kwv yees los ntawm Zoltan Pozsar: L-zoo li kev poob qis.

L-shaped recession yog dab tsi?

Ib qho kev poob qis L-shaped, los yog L-zoo li rov qab, yog ib hom kev poob qis uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev poob qis tom qab los ntawm kev rov qab qeeb. Zoo li tus "L" ntawm daim duab, cov kev lag luam no feem ntau tuaj nrog kev poob haujlwm tsis tu ncua thiab kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua.

Vim lawv qhov hnyav thiab ntev, L-shaped recessions kuj tseem tuaj yeem piav qhia txog kev nyuaj siab nyiaj txiag. Txawm hais tias GDP nws thiaj li nce ntxiv tom qab txo qis, cov txheej txheem rov qab yuav siv sijhawm ntau xyoo lossis txawm tias kaum xyoo.

Ib qho piv txwv ntawm L-zoo li rov qab yog Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj, uas tau nthuav dav zoo rau xyoo 1930s. Qee tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag kuj tau sau Cov Kev Txom Nyem Loj rau hauv pab pawg no. Txawm hais tias nws tsuas yog kav ob xyoos los ntawm GDP metrics, kev lag luam lag luam poob qab qhov kev kwv yees ua ntej kev lag luam rau ntau tshaj kaum xyoo.

L-shaped rov qab yog feem ntau suav hais tias yog hom kev puas tsuaj loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam vim lawv qhov pib tshwm sim sai thiab muaj kev cuam tshuam ntev.

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm L-shaped recessions

Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, kev lag luam tuaj yeem tawm tsam kom rov ua tiav kev loj hlob ua ntej kev lag luam thiab kev ua haujlwm.

Feem ntau, cov lag luam yuav tsum tau kaw lossis tso tawm cov neeg ua haujlwm, ncua sijhawm rov qab los ntawm kev tso cov neeg siv khoom tawm ntawm kev ua haujlwm (thiab nyiaj txiag).

Nyob rau hauv lem, cov lag luam tsis tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov kev loj hlob lawv xav tau pib ntiav dua, uas tiv thaiv kev lag luam los ntawm kev hloov kho.

Vim lawv qhov kev cuam tshuam loj heev, tsoomfwv feem ntau sim cuam tshuam hauv L-zoo li kev lag luam kom txo qis kev tawg thiab kev loj hlob kickstart. Hmoov tsis zoo, keeb kwm, qhov no feem ntau suav nrog kev faib cov peev txheej ntau rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag (piv txwv li, tsev txhab nyiaj), uas qee tus kws tshawb fawb ntseeg tias kev lag luam qeeb qeeb ntxiv.

Kev lag luam uas ua tau zoo hauv kev lag luam poob qis

L-shaped los yog tsis, kev lag luam kev lag luam feem ntau ua phem rau cov tub ua lag luam. Thaum cov nyiaj tsawg ntws los ntawm kev lag luam, cov lag luam yuav pom cov txiaj ntsig txo qis thiab nce txoj hlua khi, ua rau cov nqi qis thiab cov nyiaj faib tawm. Cyclical thiab discretionary stocks (xws li cov hauv kev lag luam tos txais qhua) tej zaum yuav nyuaj heev.

Tab sis qee qhov kev lag luam ua tau zoo - lossis tseem muaj kev vam meej - thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis. Feem ntau, cov no yog cov kev lag luam "inelastic", lossis cov neeg siv khoom xav tau nyob ruaj khov txawm tias muaj xwm txheej nyiaj txiag. Keeb kwm, ntau cov khoom tiv thaiv poob rau hauv pawg no, xws li cov neeg siv khoom siv, kev kho mob thiab kev siv hluav taws xob.

Yog tias koj tab tom nrhiav rau qhov chaw nres koj cov nyiaj hauv lub sijhawm muaj kev kub ntxhov, cov hauv qab no yog cov kev lag luam uas ua tau zoo hauv kev lag luam.

Cov khoom noj thiab cov tajlaj

Txawm hais tias huab cua hauv kev lag luam, tib neeg xav tau zaub mov, khoom ntiag tug thiab qee yam khoom siv hauv tsev. (Xav tias tshuaj txhuam hniav thiab xab npum.) Yog li ntawd, cov tuam txhab uas muag los yog muag cov khoom no tseem nyob ruaj khov thaum muaj kev lag luam.

Cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tseem ceeb uas yuav ua tau zoo hauv kev lag luam muaj xws li cov npe xws li Kroger, PepsiCo, General Mills, Tyson Foods thiab Proctor & Gamble. Txawm tias cov chains zoo li McDonald's nyiam ua tau zoo (lossis tsawg kawg zoo dua li lwm qhov kim) vim tib neeg tuaj yeem hloov noj nrog cov khoom noj ceev ceev.

DIY thiab kho

Thaum cov nyiaj tau nruj, cov neeg siv khoom yuav txuag tau los ntawm kev kho, kho dua tshiab thiab tswj lawv lub tsev, tsheb thiab vaj lawv tus kheej. Qhov ntawd tej zaum yuav yog vim li cas cov tuam txhab xws li AutoZone thiab Sherwin-Williams Co. ua tau zoo hauv xyoo 2008, thiab vim li cas DIY cov khw txhim kho tsev zoo li Lowe's thiab Home Depot ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv kev sib kis.

Cov luv nqi thiab tus nqi-tsim cov khw muag khoom

Tseeb, tib neeg xav tau zaub mov thiab pleev xim thaum muaj kev lag luam - tab sis qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias lawv yuav tsum them tus nqi tag nrho. Thaum nws txog lub sijhawm kom nruj cov peev nyiaj, cov neeg siv khoom tuaj yeem tuaj yeem hloov pauv pheej yig dua li cov khw muag khoom lag luam lossis luv nqi chains rau lawv cov khoom tsim nyog.

Cov luv nqi uas tej zaum yuav (thiab muaj) ua tau zoo thaum lub sij hawm poob nyiaj txiag muaj xws li cov npe loj xws li Walmart, Dollar General thiab Dollar Tree. Cov khw muag khoom loj uas muab cov luv nqi rau kev yuav ntau yam xws li Costco thiab Sam's Club kuj tseem ci.

Freight thiab logistics

Kev poob qis lossis tsis muaj, khoom kim heev lossis luv nqi, cov khoom yuav tsum tau txav los ntawm Point A mus rau Point B. Txawm hais tias tus kheej thiab mus ncig ua si feem ntau poob qis thaum muaj kev lag luam, cov khoom thauj khoom (thiab cov tuam txhab uas ua cov khoom thauj khoom, xws li ntim lossis roj) kuj tseem ua tau zoo. .

Piv txwv li, hauv 2008, Old Dominion Freight thiab Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies ob leeg pom qhov ua tau zoo tshaj qhov nruab nrab. Thiab nyob rau hauv niaj hnub, Amazon-hnyav huab cua, cov tuam txhab xws li FedEx thiab UPS kuj yuav ua tau zoo bets.

Healthcare

Kev kho mob yog lwm qhov kev pabcuam tseem ceeb uas tib neeg feem coob mus tsis tau. Txawm hais tias qee lub tuam txhab kev noj qab haus huv (xws li kev pib ua lag luam thiab biopharmaceutical firms) tsis tshua muaj zog thaum muaj kev lag luam, kev lag luam tag nrho yog qhov tsis zoo.

Thiab nws tsis yog tsev kho mob nkaus xwb, tuam txhab tuav pov hwm, thiab chaw muag tshuaj - cov khoom lag luam xws li band-aids thiab peroxide tseem nyob hauv kev thov, ib yam nkaus.

Qee qhov piv txwv ntawm kev kho mob cov khoom lag luam uas zoo li ci ntsa iab thaum muaj kev lag luam muaj xws li CVS Health, UnitedHealth Group, Pfizer, thiab Johnson & Johnson.

Cov khoom siv thiab lub zog

Txhawm rau ua kom nws tag nrho, peb muaj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab lub zog, uas suav nrog dej, hluav taws xob, khaws khib nyiab, roj thiab roj thiab (kev sib cav) hauv internet. Cov tuam txhab thiab cov tuam txhab muaj feem cuam tshuam zoo li pom cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov tsis hais txog kev lag luam huab cua. Yog li ntawd, lawv feem ntau ua qhov kev nqis peev zoo tshaj plaws rau kev txhawb nqa koj cov nyiaj rov qab los yog txo qhov poob hauv kev lag luam.

Muaj peev xwm nqis peev hauv qhov chaw suav nrog cov tuam txhab xws li Brookfield Infrastructure, ExxonMobil, American Water Works thiab AT&T.

Tsis txhob mus pear-puab rau L-zoo li kev lag luam

Thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis, nws tsis tuaj yeem paub tias qhov zoo li cas yuav rov qab los, lossis cov tuam txhab twg yuav ua tau zoo tshaj plaws. Nws tseem ceeb heev uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias thaum ib qho kev lag luam tuaj yeem ua tau zoo hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam, nws cov txiaj ntsig yuav poob thaum lub sij hawm rov qab los yog tom qab kev poob qis.

Tab sis Q.ai siv qhov kev kwv yees tawm ntawm kev nqis peev.

Peb cov kev txawj ntse txawj ntse scours kev lag luam rau kev nqis peev zoo tshaj plaws rau txhua yam kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai thiab kev lag luam. Tom qab ntawd, nws bundles lawv nyob rau hauv ke Cov khoom siv nqis peev uas ua rau kev nqis peev yooj yim thiab - twv peb hais nws - lom zem.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws, koj tuaj yeem qhib Kev Tiv Thaiv Portfolio txhua lub sijhawm los tiv thaiv koj cov txiaj ntsig thiab txo koj cov kev poob, txawm tias koj nqis peev hauv kev lag luam dab tsi.

Download Q.ai hnub no rau kev nkag mus rau AI-powered peev tswv yim. Thaum koj tso nyiaj $100, peb mam li ntxiv $50 ntxiv rau koj tus account.