Dab tsi yog Santa Claus rally txhais tau tias rau cov tub ua lag luam

Yog tias keeb kwm yog phau ntawv qhia, cov tub ua lag luam Tshuag yuav tau npaj kom tau txais khoom plig rau hnub so.

Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam feem ntau poob thaum lub xyoo kawg, xa cov nyiaj rov qab ntau dua rau cov tub ua lag luam. Cov qauv, hu ua "Santa Claus rally," suav nrog tsib hnub ua lag luam kawg ntawm lub xyoo thiab thawj ob ntawm xyoo tshiab.

Hauv ob xyoos dhau los, lub S&P 500 Cov Lus Qhia - tus barometer ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev ua tau zoo - tau nce los ntawm 0.7% ib xyoos, qhov nruab nrab, tshaj li xya hnub ua lag luam, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv. S&P 500 tau zoo thaum lub sijhawm xya hnub hauv 15 ntawm 20 xyoo - lossis 75% ntawm lub sijhawm, FactSet pom.

Cov qauv tuav thaum saib ntxiv rov qab, ib yam nkaus.

Thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam xya hnub tshwj xeeb, S&P 500 tau nce qhov nruab nrab 1.3% ib xyoos nrog rau xyoo 1950 thiab tau zoo hauv 79% ntawm cov xyoo ntawd, raws li kev tshuaj xyuas los ntawm Michael Batnick, tus thawj coj ntawm Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Ntxiv ntawm Nyiaj Txiag:
401 (k) 'kev nyuaj siab' tshem tawm cov ntaub ntawv siab, Vanguard hais
Ntev Covid cuam tshuam kev lag luam kev ua haujlwm - thiab qhov ntawd tsis zoo rau Asmeskas kev lag luam
Yuav ua li cas txo qhov sting ntawm kev noj RMDs hauv kev lag luam qis

Los ntawm kev sib piv, S&P 500 rov qab los yog tsawg dua 0.24% thaum tag nrho lwm yam kev lag luam xya hnub sib ntsib rau xyoo 1950, Batnick tau hais. Cov khoom lag luam tau zoo 58% ntawm lub sijhawm nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd.

"Qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb," Batnick tau hais txog qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov rov qab los thiab qhov txiaj ntsig zoo.

Lub Kaum Ob Hlis zoo li yog lub hlis muaj zog tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo rau Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo. Txij li thaum xyoo 1926, tsuas yog rov qab los rau Lub Xya Hli thiab Lub Plaub Hlis tau tshaj lub Kaum Ob Hlis qhov nruab nrab - txog 1.9% thiab 1.7% piv rau 1.6%, feem, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Morningstar Direct.

Nws tsis paub meej tias vim li cas cov khoom lag luam feem ntau sib sau ua ke thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab rau Lub Ib Hlis. Ua tau cov neeg koom nrog suav nrog kev cia siab txog lub xyoo tom ntej, kev siv nyiaj so koobtsheej, cov tub lag luam ntawm cov hnub so thiab cov tsev kawm ntawv squaring lawv cov phau ntawv - txawm tias lub hnub so.

Terry DuFrene, tus kws tshaj lij thoob ntiaj teb kev nqis peev ntawm JP Morgan Private Bank hauv New Orleans hais tias "Thaum koj xav txog Santa Claus rally, nws yog txhua yam hais txog kev cia siab lossis tos ntsoov." "Tam sim no koj muaj sijhawm los ntaus lub pob pib dua."

Ed Yardeni, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Yardeni Research, hais rau CNBC hais tias Santa Claus rallies yog "tshwj xeeb tshaj yog xav tau thiab muaj zog" thaum lub sij hawm ib nrab xyoo kev xaiv tsa, uas feem ntau muab ib qho kev sib tw rau cov lag luam Tshuag - thiab nws feem ntau tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi los tswj lub Tsev lossis Senate.  

Nws tau hais tias "Kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab nruab nrab, tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi, muaj lub siab xav ua siab loj, thiab Santa Claus rally txuas ntxiv mus txog peb, rau, 12 lub hlis tom ntej," nws hais.

Kev ua lag luam feem ntau teb zoo rau tsoom fwv sib faib vim qhov txheeb ze kwv yees uas los nrog kev cai lij choj gridlock. Republicans coj lub Tsev thiab Democrats tuav tswj Senate hauv kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab xyoo no.

Txawm yog vim li cas rau Santa Claus rally, cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem siv xov xwm zoo me ntsis.

Lub S&P 500 poob txog 17% hauv 2022. Bonds, feem ntau yog ballast thaum cov khoom lag luam poob qis, kuj tau nyob rau hauv qhov kev poob siab; Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, ib qho barometer ntawm US daim ntawv cog lus, poob 11% hauv 2022.

Tau kawg, kev ua tau zoo yav dhau los tsis tau txhais hais tias nws yog cov khoom lag luam uas tau muab los sib sau ua ke.

Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau npaj los txuas ntxiv nws lub voj voog ntawm kev nce cov paj laum thaum lub rooj sib tham txoj cai rau lub lim tiam tom ntej. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tau pib nce nqi qiv nyiaj hnyav heev hauv lub Peb Hlis xyoo no kom tswj tau cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus siab.

Hnub Tuesday, Asmeskas yuav tau saib seb puas muaj kev nce nqi ntxiv nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thaum US Bureau of Labor Statistics tau tshaj tawm nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam txhua hli.  

Qhov loj tshaj qhov kev xav tau nce hauv cov paj laum lossis cov cim qhia tias kev nce nqi tau kub dua li qhov kev cia siab tuaj yeem ua rau cov khoom lag luam jitters rau xyoo kawg.