Hauv boardrooms ntawm Fortune 500 cov tuam txhab, ntawm swanky Wall Street tuav, thiab hauv chav tsev ntawm cov tsev kawm lag luam thoob plaws lub tebchaws, tau muaj kev sib cav sib ceg txog "dab tsi ntxiv?" rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nce nqi xyoo dhau los.
Lub hli tas los no, a loj hlob nqe tshooj ntawm cov kws tshawb fawb thiab cov thawj coj ua lag luam tau ua rau cov ntaub ntawv hais tias qhov kev kub ntxhov ntawm huab cua-siab cov neeg siv khoom yuav los txog rau qhov kawg. Tab sis a cais pawg ntawm cov kev xav zoo sib xws hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias keeb kwm qhia tias kev nce nyiaj yuav tsis yooj yim tamed.
Cov lus sib cav ua los ntawm Wharton xibfwb Jeremy Siegel thiab tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag billionaire Bill Ackman dhau lub lim tiam dhau los ua piv txwv cov tswv yim tawm tsam no.
Siegel tau hais rau hnub Monday tias nws ntseeg tias Fed rau XNUMX tus paj laum nce xyoo no tau ua rau muaj kev nce nqi, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tsuas yog tsis qhia nws.
Nws tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias hauv paus 90% ntawm peb qhov kev nce nqi tau ploj mus," nws hais rau CNBC, taw tes rau ua lag luam vaj tsev qeeb ua pov thawj.
Tab sis Bill Ackman, tus tsim thiab CEO ntawm Pershing Square Capital, tau hais rau lub lim tiam dhau los tias nws ntseeg tias kev nce nqi yog nyob deb ntawm kev tswj hwm.
Nws tau hais tias "Peb xav tias kev nce nyiaj yuav nce siab dua mus tom ntej dua li nws tau ua keeb kwm," Kaum Ib Hlis 17 cov nyiaj tau los hu nrog cov tub ua lag luam, sib cav tias cov qauv zoo li deglobalization thiab huv zog kev hloov pauv yuav ua rau cov nqi nce ntxiv.
Ackman thiab Siegel yog ob qhov hnyav hauv kev sib cav txog kev nce nqi siab, thiab leej twg hloov mus rau qhov yog tuaj yeem txiav txim siab txhua yam los ntawm tus nqi ntawm koj 401 (k) mus rau ntau npaum li cas koj them rau koj cov nqi tsev. Ntawm no yog saib rau hauv lawv cov lus sib cav.
Ackman's structural inflation and equity risk
Inflation, raws li ntsuas los ntawm tus neeg siv khoom tus nqi ntsuas (CPI), nce 7.7% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los hauv lub Kaum Hlis. Thaum uas zoo li hauv qab no 9.1% siab pom nyob rau lub Rau Hli, nws yog qhov deb deb ntawm Fed lub hom phiaj 2%.
Ntau hawkish economists thiab cov thawj coj lag luam tau sib cav tias txawm tias tom qab aggressive nce cov paj laum xyoo no, Fed muaj ntau txoj haujlwm ua kom tau txais kev nce nqi tiag tiag hauv kev tswj hwm. Thiab Bill Ackman ntseeg lawv yuav tsis tuaj yeem ncav cuag 2% ntawm tag nrho cov.
"Peb tsis ntseeg tias nws yuav zoo li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tuaj yeem tau txais kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau qib 2% zoo ib yam," nws hais rau cov tub ua lag luam lub lim tiam dhau los.
Tus kws saib xyuas nyiaj txiag tau piav qhia tias muaj kev hloov pauv mus sij hawm ntev rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb xws li nce nyiaj ua haujlwm, kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob huv, thiab deglobalization uas yuav ua rau cov tuam txhab cov nqi nce ntxiv thiab ua kom nce nyiaj nce ntxiv hauv xyoo tom ntej.
Tshwj xeeb, Ackman tau sib cav tias on-shoring-kev hloov chaw ntawm kev lag luam txawv teb chaws yav dhau los rov qab mus rau Asmeskas - tuaj yeem nce nqi zog thiab khoom siv rau cov tuam txhab Asmeskas thiab nce kev nce nqi.
Nws tau hais tias "Peb yuav tsum tau lees txais qib siab dua ntawm kev nce nqi uas tau ua nrog deglobalization," nws hais. "Peb yog ib tus neeg ntseeg loj hauv kev tshawb fawb tias kev lag luam ntau dua yuav los ze dua hauv tsev thiab nws kim dua los ua lag luam ntawm no."
Vim tias cov kev hloov pauv mus sij hawm ntev uas yuav ua rau muaj kev nce nqi ntau ntxiv, Ackman ntseeg tias Fed yuav tsum tau ua raws li nws cov phom nrog cov paj laum. Tab sis nws tau piav qhia tias cov kev nce qib no tsuas yog pab txhawb cov paj laum mus sij hawm ntev ntawm cov ntawv cog lus siab dua, uas yog "kev pheej hmoo rau cov peev txheej."
Siegel lub vaj tse deflation thiab nce cov khoom lag luam
Siegel thiab ntau dovish economists zoo li nws sib cav hais tias qhov phem tshaj ntawm kev nce nqi twb dhau lawm.
Lawv taw tes rau qhov tseeb tias vaj tse nqi ua rau kwv yees li ib feem peb ntawm CPI, ib qho ntawm cov kev ntsuas feem ntau ntawm kev nce nqi, thiab nco ntsoov tias kev lag luam vaj tsev tau qeeb lawm.
Muaj tam sim no 28 ib zaug-liab-kub vaj tsev lag luam qhov twg cov nqi tsev tau poob 5% lossis ntau dua los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los thiab daim ntawv thov kev yuav tsev poob 41% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm.
Siegel hais tias Fed tsis quav ntsej txog kev lag luam vaj tsev uas muaj mob vim lawv tab tom saib cov ntaub ntawv CPI tsis zoo, uas ntsuas kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi vaj tse nrog kev lag luam.
"Kuv lub ntsiab lus tau muaj vaj tsev nyob tau poob qis tab sis txoj kev uas tsoomfwv suav nws tau qeeb heev uas nws yuav nthuav dav ntxiv," nws piav qhia.
Tus kws tshaj lij Wharton tau sib cav tias cov ntaub ntawv tshiab nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, suav nrog Case-Shiller tus nqi tsev index, yuav pib ua kom pom tseeb qhov deflation los ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev, ua rau Fed ncua lawv cov nqi nce.
"Nws tau siv sijhawm ntev heev rau Fed kom tau txais nws thiab lawv tseem tsis tau txais nws tseem tias kev nce nyiaj nce siab, tab sis lawv yuav, thiab kuv xav tias lawv yuav tau txais nws yuav lig heev rau xyoo no lossis xyoo tom ntej, ”nws hais. "Thiab kuv xav tias sai li sai tau thaum lawv tau txais koj yuav pom qhov nce loj ntawm cov nqi sib npaug."
Siegel ntseeg tias thaum Fed lees paub tias kev nce nqi nce zuj zus thiab txiav txim siab ncua kev nce qib lossis txo tus nqi, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev sib tw 15% mus rau 20% hauv S&P 500.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
Cov neeg Amelikas nruab nrab yog qhov kawg ntawm lub sijhawm
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-says-204143788.html