Puas yog kev lag luam poob qis twb raug nqi rau hauv kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees?
Tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag hauv ntiaj teb Jeremy Siegel hais tias nws zoo li cov khoom lag luam tau txo qis tsawg kawg "kev lag luam me me" thaum lub xyoo no poob qis.
Hnub Monday, S&P 500 tau nkag mus rau hauv thaj chaw lag luam dais, poob ntau dua 3% mus rau qib ntau dua 20% ntawm nws lub Ib Hlis siab kawg. Thiab raws li kev lag luam kev lag luam kev twv ua ntej txuas ntxiv dej nyab los ntawm ob qho tib si Phab ntsa Street thiab Txoj Kev Main, qee qhov sectors ntawm kev ua lag luam tau fared txawm phem dua.
tech-heavy Nasdaq Tam sim no poob qis dua 31% txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, txawm tias qhov kev ntseeg siab tshaj plaws tech stalwarts tau pom muaj kev txiav txim siab rau lawv cov nqi sib koom.
Siegel, tus xibfwb ntawm nyiaj txiag ntawm lub Lub tsev kawm ntawv muaj koob npe Wharton ntawm University of Pennsylvania txij li thaum 1976, hais rau CNBC Hnub Friday tias qhov kev poob qis tau muab qee qhov kev nqis peev hauv Tshuag rau hauv ib qho kev txaus siab rau cov tub ua lag luam.
Nws tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias kev ua lag luam twb tau txo qis kev lag luam hauv 2023," nws hais. "Nws tau raug nqi ntawm qib ntawd hnub no."
Siegel tau sau tseg tias S&P 500 tam sim no ua lag luam ntawm kwv yees li 17 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los rau pem hauv ntej, thiab yog tias koj tsis suav nrog cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis, daim duab tseem ceeb dua ntawm tsuas yog 13 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los.
"Koj tsis tshua pom nws qis," Siegel hais.
Rau kev sib piv, dhau tsib xyoos dhau los, S&P 500's forward price-to-earning ratio Qhov nruab nrab kwv yees kwv yees li 18.6, tab sis saib rov qab rau lub sijhawm 10-xyoo, cov khoom lag luam tau ua lag luam kwv yees raws li tus qauv ntawm 16.9.
Siegel tau nug seb nws puas xav tias nws yog qhov ncaj ncees los hais tias qhov kev lag luam poob qis tau raug nqi vim tias S&P 500 tau pom qhov kev cog lus nruab nrab ntawm 31% hauv txhua qhov kev poob qis txij li Tsov Rog Ntiaj Teb Zaum II.
Nws tau teb tias "Kuv xav tias peb tab tom nqis nqi hauv kev lag luam me me," nws teb. "Kuv tsis tau hais tias qhov kev lag luam poob qis yuav hnyav npaum li cas."
Siegel tau piav qhia ntxiv tias txawm hais tias tsis ntev los no tau nce tus nqi paj hauv ntau lub tebchaws, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tseem nyob hauv ib puag ncig tus nqi qis dua li tau pom yav dhau los, thiab feem ntau, cov paj laum qis dua nyiam cov nqi siab dua. Yog li, txawm hais tias kev lag luam tam sim no tus nqi-rau-cov nyiaj tau los piv yog nyob ze cov qauv keeb kwm, nws yog pov thawj tias cov tub ua lag luam tau kwv yees qhov kev lag luam poob qis.
Siegel kuj tau nug yog tias Fed tus nqi nce siab txaus los yaum cov tub ua lag luam kom tsis txhob muaj cov khoom lag luam hauv kev pom zoo ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov hauv daim ntawv cog lus lossis Nyiaj Txiag.
"Txawm tias Fed tus paj laum yog 3% lossis 3.5%, puas yog qhov kev sib tw tiag tiag rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tiag tiag uas yog cov khoom lag luam?" nws hais.
Tus kws tshaj lij tau sib cav tias qee qhov nyiaj tau los tsim cov khoom lag luam yuav pib zoo rau cov tub ua lag luam vim qhov kev nqis peev poob thiab kev xaiv peev tseem txwv.
Nws tau hais tias "Keeb kwm qhia tau tias cov nyiaj faib tawm mus nrog kev nce nqi, yog li koj tseem tau txais qhov rov qab tiag tiag," nws hais.
Goldman Sachs Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, coj los ntawm David J. Kostin, kuj tau sib cav hais tias cov nyiaj faib khoom lag luam tuaj yeem nthuav tawm tus nqi nce mus tom ntej hauv daim ntawv hnub Monday rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau tias "Cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo tshwj xeeb muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, hauv peb qhov kev xav," "Dividend stocks feem ntau ua tau zoo nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig ntawm kev nce nyiaj nce siab. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nyiaj faib tam sim no tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov tuam txhab sib npaug. "
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-one-180612220.html