Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam roared siab dua rau hnub Thursday tom qab Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas tau pom tias kev nce nqi nce ntawm qhov tsis tshua muaj kev cuam tshuam txhua xyoo ntau dua li qhov xav tau, ua rau muaj kev cia siab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag yuav kawg ua rau qee qhov pib.
Tab sis tej zaum nws tseem tseem ntxov dhau los maj mus rau hauv cov khoom lag luam raug puas tsuaj, vim tias Asmeskas kev lag luam "tsis tshua muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov cuab yeej tsis zoo xws li cov paj laum hikes," tshaj li yav dhau los, ceeb toom cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm BofA Global, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom cov neeg siv khoom txhua lub lim tiam.
Txawm hais tias tseem nce siab, cov ntaub ntawv txhua hli sua li cas CPI ntawm 7.7% txhua xyoo, nqis los ntawm 9.1% siab rau lub caij ntuj sov no. Qhov ntawd txhawb kev xav ntawm Wall Street, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
shooting nce ntau tshaj 1,000 points thiab cov khoom lag luam tau coj mus rau lawv hnub zoo tshaj plaws ntawm kev nce qib ntawm feem pua txij li xyoo 2020, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.
Txawm li cas los xij, Asmeskas kev lag luam tsis zoo li yuav tshwm sim sai sai rau cov paj laum ntau dua, ib feem vim tias 95% ntawm cov nyiaj qiv hauv tsev yog cov nqi qiv nyiaj, cov neeg siv khoom tseem nyob ruaj khov nrog cov nyiaj ntau dhau thiab cov nyiaj poob haujlwm tau nyob qis, raws li BofA Global.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab lag luam kuj tau nce nyiaj ntau tus nqi qis qis thaum muaj kev sib kis thiab kev lag luam tam sim no tau tsav los ntawm cov kev pabcuam, uas tsis tshua muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov paj laum nce siab dua li cov khoom tsim khoom lag luam.
Kev saib keeb kwm kuj qhia tau hais tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem siv sijhawm ntev dua li qhov xav tau (saib daim ntawv qhia) kom rov qab mus rau qib qub dua li ntawm 3%. BofA pab pawg xav tias nws tuaj yeem tshwm sim hauv 2024.
Kev rov qab mus rau qhov qub ntawm kev nce nqi pem hauv ntej tuaj yeem siv sijhawm ntev dua li qhov xav tau
BofA Kev Tshawb Fawb Ntiaj Teb, Bloomberg
"Peb tau pom qhov no ua ntej," BofA Global txoj kev tshawb fawb tau sau, hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 8, ntxiv tias lub sijhawm xyoo 1967 txog 1980 tau cim los ntawm "kev nce nqi nce ntxiv" uas ua rau cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas tau kov "ntau dua. highs thiab siab dua lows, "raws li lub zog kev kub ntxhov thiab nyiaj txiag nyiaj txiag nce nqi nce nqi.
Thaum pab pawg tau tshaj tawm ua ntej hnub Thursday qhov kev nyeem ntawv nce nqi tshiab, nws cov lus ceeb toom tau hais nyob rau lwm qhov ntawm Wall Street tom qab CPI tsab ntawv ceeb toom, nrog rau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam thiab cov neeg tsim cai tau rov hais dua tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Cov nyiaj txiag sib ntaus yuav tseem nyob deb dhau.
Ryan Sweet, tus thawj coj ntawm US Economist ntawm Oxford Economics, hu ua deceleration ntawm lub Kaum Hli Ntuj CPI nyeem "me ntsis dag," thiab hais tias nws yuav tsis txwv Fed los ntawm hiking nws txoj cai tus nqi ntxiv, nyob rau hauv ib daim ntawv Thursday.
Josh Jamner, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas lub tswv yim ntawm ClearBridge Investments, tau hais tias qhov tshwm sim yog tias qhov kev lag luam qeeb qeeb yuav xav tau rau Fed kom tau txais kev ntseeg siab txog "tso lub brakes rau yav tom ntej tus nqi hikes, uas tuaj yeem tshwm sim thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo tom ntej yog tias cov ntaub ntawv koom tes, ”hauv emailed tawm tswv yim.
Tab sis qhov kev pheej hmoo loj dua rau cov tub ua lag luam sib luag, nws hais tias, yog qhov tsis zoo rau cov nyiaj tau los thiab kev lag luam dav dav hauv 2023.
BofA Global pab pawg tau mus ntxiv ib kauj ruam ntxiv, qhia cov tub ua lag luam kom "tsis txhob muaj kev loj hlob cov khoom lag luam kom txog thaum cov txiaj ntsig rov pib dua thiab nce nyiaj nce siab," tab sis kuj tseem yuav xaus rau lub xyoo nrog cov nyiaj ntsuab ntawm tes thiab siv cov khoom lag luam sib tw los tig mus rau hauv lub zog thiab credit.
S&P 500 qhov ntsuas
SPX,
tau nce 4.8% Hnub Thursday, thaum Nasdaq Composite Index
SPX,
yog 5.5% siab dua.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/weve-seen-this-before-warns-bofa-why-inflation-could-take-until-2024-to-fall-to-3-and-weigh- on-stocks-11668110979?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo