Lub khw lag luam nyob rau kaum xyoo tom ntej yuav NW nyuam qhuav nce nrog kev nce nqi.
Qhov ntawd yog raws li qhov nruab nrab ntawm 10-xyoo kev kwv yees ntawm yim qhov ntsuas ntsuas qhov ntsuas uas kuv hais txog hauv qhov chaw no txhua lub hlis. Kuv tsom mus rau yim no vim lawv muaj cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg zoo dua li lwm tus uas kuv paub. Txhawm rau kom meej meej, qhov nruab nrab lawv tau kwv yees tag nrho rov qab los ntawm tam sim no thiab 2033 ntawm rho tawm 0.1% txhua xyoo.
Qhov kev kwv yees no ua rau muaj kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam uas tseem nyob hauv kev nce nqi-hloov cov nqe lus rau ntau xyoo thaum kawg - tsis yog ntuj ceeb tsheej lossis ntuj txiag teb tsaus, yog tias koj xav tau, tab sis Purgatory. Kev taw qhia ib puag ncig zoo li no yuav xav tau kev hloov pauv loj hauv peb txoj kev xav, txij li thaum peb tau siv los saib cov kev lag luam hauv cov ntsiab lus binary-peb nyob rau hauv ib tug nyuj los yog dais lag luam. Tab sis yuav ua li cas yog tias peb tsis nyob hauv ib qho?
Cov kev kwv yees no tuaj yeem xav tau kev hloov pauv loj hauv peb cov tswv yim. Cov uas peb tau siv ntau dua, uas yog tsim los kom tau nyiaj thaum lub sij hawm loj bulls lossis dais kev lag luam, feem ntau ua tau tsis zoo nyob rau hauv qhov chaw qis rov qab, tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob. Qhov ntawd yog vim tias ntau tus ntawm lawv raug kev txom nyem los ntawm lub sijhawm tawg, uas txhais tau hais tias lawv tuaj yeem poob nyiaj txawm tias thaum kawg lub khw yuav txav mus rau qhov kev xav tau - yog tias nws siv sijhawm ntev heev rau nws ua li ntawd.
Tsawg kawg peb tsis nyob hauv ntuj raug txim
Yog tias yav tom ntej zoo li Purgatory, tej zaum peb tuaj yeem tau txais kev nplij siab los ntawm kev tsis nyob hauv ntuj raug txim uas peb tau ntsib xyoo tas los. Thaum pib ntawm 2022, kuv yim qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tau, qhov nruab nrab, kwv yees kaum xyoo kev nce nqi-kho rov qab los ntawm rho tawm 3.8% txhua xyoo. Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias poob ib feem peb ntawm koj lub zog yuav khoom hauv ib xyoo caum.
Tsiv los ntawm ntuj raug txim mus rau Purgatory yog ib qho loj, tsawg kawg yog tias koj xav pom lub khob ib nrab puv es tsis yog ib nrab khoob. Tsuas yog 12 lub hlis, kev lag luam Tshuag tau raug kev txom nyem dab tsi thaum pib ntawm 2022 tau kwv yees tias yuav yog ib xyoo caum tus nqi poob. Yog li ntawd, peb tam sim no fim lub kuj zoo dua lub zeem muag ntawm tuav peb tus kheej tiv thaiv kev nce nqi rau ib xyoo caum.
Kom paub meej, tsuas yog vim tias kev lag luam Tshuag nyob rau hauv ib xyoo caum lub sij hawm yuav tsis siab dua los yog qis dua qhov chaw uas nws nyob niaj hnub no, peb tsis paub txoj kev lag luam yuav coj mus rau qhov ntawd. Hloov chaw ntawm kev sib tsoo, ib xyoos dhau ib xyoos, tsis tau txais lossis poob ntau dua li ob peb feem pua, nws muaj peev xwm hais tias kev lag luam tau dhau los ua kev sib tw muaj zog ua raws li qhov sib npaug zog poob - lossis rov ua dua. Tab sis yog tias cov qauv ntsuas qhov tseeb yog qhov tseeb, peb yuav muaj kev ntxhov siab thaum kawg.
Nws yog vim qhov kev txiav txim siab xws li cov no ntev ntev dais Jeremy Grantham, co-founder ntawm Boston-based GMO, tsis ntev los no tshaj tawm tias "qhov yooj yim tshaj plaws txhais ceg" ntawm qhov tawg ntawm cov khoom lag luam npuas tam sim no dhau lawm. "Ib qho loj ntawm tag nrho cov kev poob tag nrho thoob plaws kev lag luam uas peb xav pom ib xyoo dhau los tau tshwm sim," nws tau sau lub lim tiam dhau los no. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam xav tias yuav rov qab los rau xyoo tom ntej yog, nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus txheeb ze, zoo dua li ib xyoos dhau los, "piv rau Goldilocks qauv ntawm 20 xyoo dhau los, [nws tseem] zoo nkauj heev."
Yuav ua li cas cov yim tus qauv ntsuas ntsuas tam sim no
Cov lus hauv qab no qhia txog yim qhov ntsuas ntsuas qhov ntsuas uas kuv tseem ceeb hauv qhov chaw no txhua lub hlis. Daim ntawv ceeb toom tshwj xeeb uas txhua tus ntawm lawv sawv cev rau qhov kev faib tawm ntawm nws cov khoom xa rov qab rau ntau xyoo dhau los. Nov yog qhov Purgatory zoo li ntawm Wall Street.
| Tseeb | Lub hnub nyoog | Pib xyoo | Percentile txij thaum 2000 (100% feem ntau bearish) | Percentile txij thaum 1970 (100% feem ntau bearish) | Percentile txij thaum 1950 (100% feem ntau bearish) | |
| P / E Piv | 22.55 | 21.32 | 21.32 | 57% | 72% | 80% |
| CAPE ratio | 29.09 | 28.46 | 28.46 | 74% | 82% | 87% |
| P / Dividend ratio | 1.65% | 1.74% | 1.74% | 80% | 85% | 89% |
| P/Sales ratio | 2.37 | 2.24 | 2.24 | 91% | 96% | 97% |
| P/Book ratio | 4.08 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 94% | 93% | 100% |
| Q ratio | 1.73 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 89% | 94% | 96% |
| Buffett ratio (PIB/PIB) | 1.58 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 89% | 94% | 94% |
| Kev faib nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg | 43.6% | 43.6% | 43.6% | 75% | 84% | 88% |
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/welcome-to-purgatory-on-wall-street-11674847923?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo