Xav Tau Ice Cream Scoopers - $ 23 / hr - Yog, Kev Pabcuam Kev Lag Luam yog Booming

Xav txog qhov kuv xav tsis thoob thaum pom daim paib no sab nraum kuv lub zos JP Licks Ice cream khw hauv cheeb tsam Boston. Txawm hais tias muaj tseeb tiag, nws tseem zoo li yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov teeb meem uas Fed tam sim no ntsib hauv lawv qhov kev thov kom coj nyiaj rov qab mus rau 2%. Kev pabcuam kev lag luam yog booming, kev lag luam ua haujlwm nruj, thiab cov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb tau pib nkag mus. Hauv kuv lub Ib Hlis 3^rd kem (Cov Monkees tau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev thaum xyoo 1966-67. Yog li Inflation (forbes.com)) Kuv cov kab hauv qab yog tias kev lag luam poob qis tsis pom tseeb, thiab yog li koj yuav tsum npog koj qhov kev ncaj ncees hedges. Yog ib lub tswv yim zoo thaum ntawd. Peb puas yuav tsum cia siab tias yuav muaj kev poob nyiaj sai sai? Cia peb tshawb nrhiav qhov macro-outlook.

Hauv kev saib ua ntej, nws nyuaj rau pom qhov kev poob qis hauv 6-9 lub hlis tom ntej. Tsis ntev los no, daim ntawv ceeb toom 2-xyoo tau tsiv rov qab siab dua qib ntawm Fed Funds. Nws 'uninverted'. Qhov no tsis yog qhov tsis tau muaj dua los tab sis qhov nws yuav txhais tau tias kev lag luam muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau. Thiab muaj ntau cov cim xws li kev lag luam ntiag tug cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 8% (3-hli txhua xyoo) thiab ua kom nrawm dua. Yog li, peb xaus nrog $ 23 / teev ice cream scoopers. Thiab peb cov neeg haus dej khov muaj cov ntsiab lus them nyiaj vim tias tsev neeg cov nyiaj ntsuab ntawm daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj tseem yog $ 8 trillion, ntau dua ob npaug ntawm qhov nws tau nyob hauv 2019. Lwm qhov, Tuam Tshoj tau loj hlob ntxiv, thiab Lub Tuam Txhab Nyiaj Txiag Nyij Pooj tseem tseem luam tawm trillions ntawm Yen los txhawb nqa. lawv Yield Curve Control. Koj tau txais daim duab; nominal kev loj hlob tseem muaj zog.

Fed tau txais daim duab thiab. Cleveland Fed Median thiab Trimmed txhais tau hais tias kev nce nqi nyiaj txiag hauv Lub Ib Hlis tau pom tias muaj kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev nce nqi tseem ceeb. Peb paub tias Chair Powell saib ob qhov ntsuas no ze. Lub caij no, tej zaum yuav muaj 3-6M cov neeg ua haujlwm tsawg dua li qhov koj xav tau hauv 2019. Lawv tseem tsis tau zoo li ntxias kom nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam. Cov lag luam tsis tuaj yeem tos thiab yog li cov nqi kev pabcuam kev ua haujlwm tau nce thiab nrog lawv yog li yuav nqi. Khaws koj lub qhov muag ntawm Fed dot-plot projections yuav los hauv lub Peb Hlis lub rooj sib tham. Yog tias cov phiaj xwm qhia txog kev poob haujlwm ntawm 4.5-5%, Fed cov tswv cuab tau hais meej meej tias lawv xav tau kev lag luam poob qis kom txo nqi. Tsis nco qab ncua lossis pivoting, Fed tseem tab tom nrhiav kev nce nqi ua haujlwm.

Peb lub koom haum tswj hwm nyiaj txiag thaum kawg tau txais qhov lawv xav tau, thiab koj yuav tsum tsis txhob tawm tsam lawv. Yog li, hauv 9-18-hli lub sijhawm, Kuv xav tias Fed engineers muaj kev lag luam poob qis los txo qis kev nce nqi. Muaj ntau cov cim taw qhia hauv qhov kev taw qhia thaum lub sijhawm ntawd. 3-hli T-bill yielded inverted (mus siab dua nyob rau hauv tus nqi) 10-xyoo tsoom fwv yield rov qab rau lub kaum hli ntuj thiab feem ntau 12-18 lub hlis tom qab, peb tau txais kev lag luam. Cov Thawj Coj Kev Lag Luam (Lub Rooj Sib Tham Rooj Sib Tham thiab OECD) tau taw qhia thiab muaj cov ntaub ntawv zoo. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom kev cia siab yav tom ntej tau ua tsis tu ncua ntau dua li cov xwm txheej tam sim no uas qhia txog kev npau taws rau pej xeem thiab keeb kwm yog qhov qhia tau zoo ntawm kev lag luam rov qab los.

Los ntawm cov 6 lub hlis tom ntej no, yog tias kev lag luam tseem muaj zog, txoj hauv kev yuav ua rau cov nyiaj tau los ntau dua thiab, yog, muaj peev xwm muaj peev xwm siab dua cov nqi sib tw. Tej zaum peb yuav txawm tawm tsam lub Yim Hli 2022 siab ntawm 4300. Tsis muaj oxygen ntau dua li qib ntawd vim qhov ntsuas thiab cov paj laum ntau dua. Thiab tsuas yog hais txog thaum txhua tus tshaj tawm tias tsis muaj kev tsaws thiab tsis muaj zog, Fed kev lag luam rauj yuav raug ntaus.

Puas yog kev lag luam poob qis hauv? Tsis txawm nyob ze. Cov nyiaj tau los hauv kev poob qis tuaj yeem yooj yim poob 25-30%. Cov credit kis tau ntau dua thiab nrog lawv cov nyiaj txiag yuav nruj heev. Nws tsis yog ib daim duab zoo nkauj uas yuav ua rau cov neeg ua lag luam tam sim no nyob ntsiag to. Tab sis los ntawm kuv qhov kev xav tau, yog tias koj tuaj yeem them tus nqi thiab calories, noj cov dej khov rau lub caij ntuj sov.

Txhua cov ntaub ntawv hais los ntawm Bloomberg LP thiab Ned Davis Research.