[hotlink]Morgan Stanley[/hotlink] tus thawj coj peev Mike Wilson yog ib zaug tib tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Phab ntsa Street bearish txaus los kwv yees S&P 500 yuav poob rau 3,900 thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Tam sim no raws li S&P 500 nyob ib ncig ntawm 3,950 thiab Wilson qhov kev kwv yees dhau los ua qhov tseeb, cov tub lag luam qub tau kwv yees tias tej yam yuav poob los ntawm ntau ntxiv.
Wilson, uas tseem ua hauj lwm ua Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj ntawm US tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees, tau ceeb toom cov tub ua lag luam tias Asmeskas cov tuam txhab yuav nthuav tawm cov kev hloov pauv nyiaj poob qis hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo tom ntej uas yuav xa cov khoom lag luam qis dua 24% thaum ntxov 2023.
"Koj yuav tsum cia siab tias yuav muaj S&P ntawm 3,000 thiab 3,300 qee zaum nyob rau hauv tej zaum thawj plaub lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo," Wilson hais rau CNBC's Nyiaj ceev nyiaj hnub Tuesday yav tsaus ntuj. "Qhov ntawd yog thaum peb xav tias qhov deacceleration ntawm kev hloov kho ntawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los yuav zoo li ncav cuag nws qhov crescendo."
Wilson qhov kev kwv yees ntawm S&P 500 nyob ib ncig ntawm 3,000 yuav txhais tau tias qhov ntsuas ntsuas ntsuas tau poob ib lub hlis twg ntawm nws tus nqi los ntawm nws kaw rau hnub Tuesday yav tsaus ntuj ntawm 3,957.62. "Lub lag luam dais tsis dhau," Wilson tau hais tias, "Peb tau txais qis qis dua yog tias peb cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees yog qhov tseeb."
Txawm hais tias feem ntau lwm tus kws tshaj lij tau tawm tsam los kwv yees 17% poob hauv S&P 500 xyoo tas los, Wilson-uas tau teev npe No. 1 stock Strategist hauv qhov tseeb Lub Chaw Ua Lag Luam kev tshawb fawb - hais tias tus nqi thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no tau yooj yim heev - nws tsuas yog yuav tsum tau poob qis thiab tuav nws txoj haujlwm. Qhov nruab nrab lub hom phiaj ntawm CNBC's Market Strategist Survey Ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2022 muaj cov kws tshaj lij xav tias S&P 500 yuav nce los ntawm 3,750 mus rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm 4,684. Wilson tuav qhov kev xav tsis zoo tshaj plaws thaum lub sijhawm nrog nws qhov kev kwv yees 3,900.
Nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, Morgan Stanley kwv yees tias cov khw lag luam yuav poob qis hauv thawj lub hlis ntawm xyoo tom ntej, ua ntej rov qab mus rau thaj tsam 3,900 los ntawm xyoo kawg 2023.
Ib tug luv luv rally thiab ces ib tug loj poob
Wilson hais tias nws tsis yog hais txog kev kwv yees xyoo tas los, tab sis yog cov tsiaj qus luv luv luv coj mus rau qhov ntawd. "Kuv txhais tau tias tsis muaj leej twg txhawj txog qhov yuav tshwm sim hauv 12 lub hlis. Lawv yuav tsum tau nrog peb mus rau rau lub hlis tom ntej. Qhov ntawd yog qhov uas peb xav tias muaj qhov cuam tshuam loj," Wilson kwv yees.
Raws li cov tuam txhab tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los qis dua hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo, Morgan Stanley kwv yees cov tub ua lag luam skittish yuav khiav tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis hais txog lawv txoj haujlwm.
"Feem ntau ntawm kev puas tsuaj yuav tshwm sim hauv cov tuam txhab loj no - tsis yog siv thev naus laus zis los ntawm txoj kev. Nws tuaj yeem yog cov neeg siv khoom. Nws tuaj yeem yog kev lag luam, ”Wilson hais. "Thaum cov khoom lag luam muaj lub sijhawm nyuaj rau lub Kaum Hli, cov nyiaj tau mus rau lwm qhov chaw. Yog li, ib feem ntawm qhov kev tawm tsam no tau raug tsav los ntawm kev rov qab los ntawm cov nyiaj tsiv mus. "
Tab sis hmoov zoo rau cov neeg ua lag luam bullish, Wilson tsis kwv yees qhov sib tsoo ntawm cov nqi kom txog rau thaum xyoo tom ntej. "Lub sijhawm no tsis yog lub sijhawm muag txhua yam thiab khiav mus rau toj vim tias tej zaum yuav tsis txog thaum cov nyiaj tau los poob rau lub Ib Hlis [thiab] Lub Ob Hlis," nws hais.
Wilson yav dhau los kwv yees tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem ncav cuag 4,150 thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo nyob rau hauv ib tug luv luv-nyob rally uas yuav poob mus rau hauv lub xyoo tshiab. Hais lus rau Kev xav ntawm Kev Ua Lag Luam podcast thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, Wilson tau hais tias, "Tam sim no peb tau mus txog qhov chaw uas ob qho tib si daim ntawv cog lus thiab cov khw muag khoom lag luam yuav raug nqi ntau dhau ...
Raws li S&P 500 nyob ib ncig ntawm 4,000 lub cim, qhov kev kwv yees no yog kom deb li deb ntawm txoj kev raug. "Nws yog peb txoj haujlwm los hu cov kev tawm tsam no," Wilson tau hais rau hnub Tuesday. “Peb tau txais qhov no yog lawm. Kuv tseem xav tias qhov kev sib tw tactical no muaj ob txhais ceg mus rau xyoo kawg. "
Tab sis tom qab peb hu xov tooj rau lub xyoo tshiab thiab cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj tau los xa cov khoom sib npaug rau "qis qis" hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, tom qab ntawd cov tub ua lag luam raug tso cai rau qee qhov kev cia siab, Wilson hais. Wilson hais rau CNBC hauv lwm qhov kev sib tham nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los, "Koj yuav ua rau qis qis dua nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg, thiab qhov ntawd yuav yog lub sijhawm yuav khoom zoo heev,"
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
Cov neeg Amelikas nruab nrab yog qhov kawg ntawm lub sijhawm
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-top-strategist-mike-130049217.html