Cov neeg yuav khoom tau pom hauv Kroger lub tsev muag khoom thaum Lub Kaum Hli 14, 2022, hauv Atlanta, Georgia.
Eloux Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Dluab
Ntau tus neeg ua si hauv kev lag luam Tshuag thiab ntawm cov qib ntawm cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau tuaj ib puag ncig rau qhov pom tias kev nce nqi nce siab lossis twb tau poob qis, tab sis cov tswv lag luam me ntawm Main Street tsis xav tias yuav rov qab los ntawm tus nqi siab txhua lub sijhawm sai sai, raws li rau CNBC tshiab kev xaiv tsa.
Feem coob (78%) ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg ua lag luam hais tias lawv xav tias kev nce nqi yuav nce ntxiv, raws li peb lub hlis twg CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. Qhov ntawd tau zoo tsis hloov pauv los ntawm lub quarter dhau los thaum 77% tau hais tias lawv xav tias kev nce nqi yuav nce ntxiv.
Main Street txoj kev ntseeg tias kev nce nqi tseem tsis tau nce siab los ntawm qhov tsis sib haum xeeb cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tsis ntev los no thiab cov neeg siv khoom xav.
Cov nqi lag luam wholesale tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday sawv ntau tshaj qhov xav tau hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis raws li cov nqi khoom noj tau nce ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov ntsuas tus nqi tsim khoom, qhov ntsuas ntawm cov tuam txhab tau txais dab tsi rau lawv cov khoom hauv cov raj xa dej, tau nce 7.4% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, qhov qeeb tshaj 12 lub hlis txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2021. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index tau nce ntau dua li qhov xav tau ntawm qhov kev cia siab nyiaj txiag poob qis, txawm tias tseem muaj kev txheeb ze rau keeb kwm tsis ntev los no.
Megan Greene, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Kroll Global, tau hais rau CNBC's "Squawk Box" rau hnub Friday tias nws xav tias "kev nce nqi siab tshaj yog zaum tom qab peb."
Tab sis kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi yog ua rau lub caij so ceev faj tshaj plaws rau cov neeg yuav khoom txij li xyoo 2013, raws li cov ntaub ntawv. CNBC All-America Economic Survey, nrog 41% ntawm cov neeg siv khoom hais tias lawv npaj yuav siv nyiaj tsawg xyoo no dua li xyoo tas los. Ntawm cov pab pawg ntawd, ib feem peb tau hais tias lawv yuav siv nyiaj tsawg vim yog kev nce nqi.
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon tau hais rau hnub Tuesday tias tus neeg yuav khoom Asmeskas yog tseem xav tias "stressed" los ntawm kev nce nqi, txawm tias qhov txiaj ntsig ntawd tsis tau hnov txhua yam thoob plaws pawg.
Cov nqi roj pheej yig dua tuaj yeem pab txo qis cov kev txhawj xeeb no, vim tias tus nqi ib nkas loos tam sim no xav tias yuav poob qis dua $ 3 rau ntau tus neeg Asmeskas thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Raws li AAA, lub lub teb chaws nruab nrab rau ib nkas loos roj unleaded yog $3.329 Hnub Thursday, zoo hauv qab cov ntaub ntawv $ 5.01 tus nqi ib nkas loos rau lub Rau Hli 14 thiab qis dua tus nqi pom ua ntej ntawm Russia qhov ntxeem tau ntawm Ukraine.
Tsis hais txog ntawm kev lag luam tailwinds, kev nce nqi tseem nyob hauv siab rau cov tswv lag luam me.
Ntau tus tswv lag luam me (45%) tam sim no hais tias kev nce nqi yog qhov txaus ntshai tshaj plaws rau lawv txoj kev lag luam dua li kev taug qab hauv ib qho ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb peb lub hlis twg dhau los. CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey rau Q4 2022 tau ua lub Kaum Ib Hlis 9-Nov. 16 ntawm ze li ntawm 2,600 tus tswv lag luam me.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, yuav luag txhua tus tswv lag luam me (92%) txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi, raws li kev tshawb fawb.
Laura Wronski, tus thawj coj loj ntawm kev tshawb fawb tshawb fawb ntawm Momentive, tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias ntau yam uas tau ua rau muaj kev xav ntawm cov tswv lag luam me tsis ntev los no, tab sis tshwj xeeb tshaj yog txij li Covid tau pib, yog kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo," said Laura Wronski, tus thawj coj loj ntawm kev tshawb fawb txog kev tshawb fawb ntawm Momentive, uas ua kev soj ntsuam rau CNBC. "Qhov kev nyab xeeb thawj koom ruam xyoo dhau los yog tias kev nce nqi yuav nce zuj zus ntxiv mus rau lub sijhawm, vim tias yog tias cov tswv lag luam me tau npaj rau qhov phem tshaj plaws, lawv yuav muaj peev xwm daws tau txhua yam kev lag luam nyuaj."
Wronski tau hais tias muab ib puag ncig kev lag luam pom txog tam sim no xyoo no, "Main Street tej zaum yuav raug hlawv me ntsis los ntawm lawv qhov kev paub dhau los."
Cov tswv lag luam me tseem ntseeg tias kev lag luam nyiaj txiag yuav tshwm sim, txawm hais tias qhov kev tshawb fawb cov ntaub ntawv tshiab qhia tau hais tias kev thawb rov qab ntawm kev lag luam poob qis rau xyoo tom ntej. Yav dhau los, feem ntau ntawm cov tswv lag luam tau hais rau qhov kev tshawb fawb lawv xav tias kev lag luam twb tau poob qis.
Kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo, Wronski hais tias, yog "qhov laj thawj vim li cas peb pom cov tswv lag luam me txuas ntxiv taw qhia rau kev nce nqi raws li lawv qhov kev txhawj xeeb saum toj kawg nkaus thiab cia siab tias tus nqi yuav nce ntxiv, txawm tias qhov ntsuas kev lag luam pib hloov pauv."
Thaum cov tswv lag luam me feem ntau txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi, muaj qee qhov kev koom tes thaum nws los txog rau lawv cov kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam. Tsib caug-ib feem pua ntawm Republican cov tswv lag luam me hais tias kev nce nqi yog qhov txaus ntshai tshaj plaws rau lawv txoj kev lag luam, piv rau 35% ntawm cov tswv lag luam me uas yog Democrats.
Qhov kev faib nom tswv tseem muaj nyob rau hauv kev kwv yees nyob ib puag ncig kev nce nqi siab tshaj, tsuas yog 11% ntawm Republican cov tswv lag luam me hais tias kev nce nyiaj tau mus txog qhov ntawd piv rau 41% ntawm cov tswv lag luam me uas txheeb xyuas tias yog Democrats. Cov nuj nqis no feem ntau tsis hloov pauv ntawm lub quarter dhau los, nrog me ntsis kev ywj pheej thiab Democrats hais tias kev nce nqi tau mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv lub quarter no, poob rau hauv txoj kab nrog me ntsis kev pom zoo los ntawm cov tswv lag luam me uas txheeb xyuas tias yog Democrats.
Qhov kev xav hloov ntawm Democrats tau txais qhov kev tshawb fawb tau pab Thawj Tswj Hwm Biden qhov kev pom zoo ntawm Txoj Kev Main Street nce mus thawj zaug thaum nws ua tus thawj tswj hwm, txawm tias nce los ntawm txhua lub sijhawm qis. Tom qab ntxuav tawm ntawm qhov kev pom zoo ntawm cov tswv lag luam me ntawm 31% thaum lub quarter thib peb ntawm 2022, thaum kev nce nyiaj nce mus txog nws qib siab tshaj plaws, Thawj Tswj Hwm Biden qhov kev pom zoo tau nce mus rau 34% hauv lub quarter thib plaub, thawj zaug thoob plaws yim. peb lub hlis twg ntawm nws tus thawj tswj hwm tau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv kev xaiv tsa peb lub hlis twg, thiab rhuav tshem qhov kev poob qis rau rau lub hlis twg.
Tab sis tus yuam sij rau Biden txoj kev sawv ntawm Main Street, nrog rau tag nrho cov kev xav los ntawm cov tswv lag luam me, yuav yog qhov kev poob qis ntxiv ntawm kev nce nqi, lossis tsawg kawg yog cov cim pom tseeb ntawm nws mus rau qhov raug.
Nov yog qee yam uas Tsoom Fwv Tebchaws Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tau qhia, hais rau Kaum Ib Hlis 30 thaum hais lus ntawm Brookings Institution hais tias "nws yuav siv cov pov thawj ntau ntxiv los muab kev nplij siab tias kev nce nqi tau poob qis."
Powell tau hais tias "Los ntawm txhua tus qauv, kev nce nqi tseem tshuav ntau dhau," "Txawm hais tias txoj cai nruj dua thiab kev loj hlob qeeb dua xyoo dhau los, peb tsis tau pom qhov kev vam meej ntawm kev nce nqi qis. … Qhov tseeb yog txoj hauv kev mus tom ntej rau kev nce nqi tseem tsis paub meej, ”Powell hais.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/10/wall-street-says-inflation-peaked-main-street-expects-more-pain.html