(Bloomberg) - Qhov ntsuas tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis hloov pauv tau xa ib qho kev txhawb nqa rau Asmeskas cov peev txheej hauv lub lis piam tom ntej.
Feem ntau Nyeem los ntawm Bloomberg
Cboe Volatility Index, lossis VIX, tau poob rau hauv "kev tuag hla" kev tsim kho rau hnub Friday thawj zaug txij li lub Yim Hli, thaum Asmeskas kev lag luam kev lag luam tau nce siab ntxiv rau kev ntshai tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav ua kom nce nqi paj los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi.
Lub VIX, dubbed Wall Street qhov kev ntshai ntsuas, ntsuas kev lag luam kev cia siab ntawm 30-hnub volatility thiab tuaj yeem ua qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm cov tub ua lag luam zoo li cas. Lub npe hu ua kev tuag hla tus qauv tshwm sim thaum VIX lub sijhawm luv 50-hnub txav nruab nrab swb qis dua nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab.
Rau ib tus neeg cov khoom lag luam lossis cov khoom lag luam, tus ntoo khaub lig tuag feem ntau suav hais tias yog bearish. Tab sis thaum nws tshwm sim rau VIX nws tuaj yeem yog ib qho kev cia siab rau kev ncaj ncees, raws li Jeffrey Hirsch, tus editor ntawm Stock Trader's Almanac, thiab Christopher Mistal, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb ntawm kev tshaj tawm.
"Vim tias VIX yog tsim los ntsuas qhov kev lag luam nyob ze qhov qis dua nws mus qhov zoo dua S&P 500 feem ntau ua tau," Hirsch thiab Mistal tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv tshawb fawb rau cov neeg siv khoom. "Yog li ntawd, tus ntoo khaub lig tuag VIX tuaj yeem yog qhov qhia txog kev loj hlob."
Txij li thaum xyoo 1990, muaj 35 tus neeg tuag hla rau VIX ua ntej tam sim no, raws li Tus Tub Lag Luam Tshuag Almanac. Qhov nruab nrab, S&P 500 tau nce 0.5% thiab 0.6% raws li ib thiab ob lub lis piam tom qab tsim.
Nrog rau txhua yam uas tau hais, cov neeg lag luam kev ncaj ncees tsuas yog muaj kev ntseeg siab rau ib yam hauv lub lim tiam tom ntej: muaj kev kub ntxhov ntau dua.
Volatility tau yooj yim heev, nrog rau VIX poob qis dua 20 thaum pib lub hlis no tom qab spiking siab li 34.53 intraday thaum Lub Kaum Hli 12. Hnub Monday, txawm li cas los xij, nws tau nce siab dua 24 raws li cov tub ua lag luam brace rau qhov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam rau hnub Tuesday. , ua raws li Fed tus nqi txiav txim siab ib hnub tom qab. Cov xwm txheej tseem ceeb no yuav zoo li yuav ua li cas ua ntej rau kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2023.
"Qhov no yuav qhia tau tias tam sim no VIX tus ntoo khaub lig tuag yuav muaj kev txhawb siab nyob rau lub sijhawm ze, tab sis tsis yog qhov qhia tau zoo tshaj li ob lub lis piam," Hirsch thiab Mistal tau sau.
Feem ntau Nyeem los ntawm Bloomberg Businessweek
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vix-fell-death-cross-usually-205633380.html