Lub 12 lub hlis dhau los yog ib xyoos ntawm kev nce nqi nce sai, cov paj laum nrawm nrawm thiab cov lus nug ceev ceev txog kev lag luam yav tom ntej.
Cov nqi tau nce thaum cov khw muag khoom thiab cov nyiaj khaws cia nyiaj poob qis, ua rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov tub ua lag luam kiv taub hau thiab lawv hnab nyiaj mob.
Tej zaum yuav muaj kev mob nyiaj txiag ntau dua, qhov tseeb zoo nkauj - tab sis nws yuav tsis zoo li kev ntshai, raws li Vanguard saib ua ntej rau xyoo 2023.
Qhov kev poob qis yuav tsis xa cov neeg tsis muaj haujlwm them nqi siab dua, cov ntawv nplaum yuav ploj mus rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom, thiab kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev thiab qiv nyiaj yuav yooj yim, Vanguard tau hais.
"Hnub Tuesday, cov ntaub ntawv kev nce nqi rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis tau qhia tias cov nqi txuas ntxiv mus txias. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas hais tias ua rau 50-piv taw tes nce, ntau dua li qhov nce 75-piv txwv, ntau dua."
Qhov xov xwm zoo: Qhov no qhib txoj hauv kev rau cov khoom lag luam rov qab, tus thawj tswj hwm vaj tse ntxiv.
Qhov kev pom zoo, tshaj tawm lub lim tiam no, los ntawm Asmeskas tab tom sim twv seb 2023 tuav dab tsi rau lawv cov nyiaj txiag thaum lawv tswj hwm lawv cov hnub so pob nyiaj yuav khoom, thiab 2022 kev nqis peev uas.
Hnub Tuesday, cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis tau qhia cov nqi tseem txias. Txij Lub Kaum Hli mus txog Kaum Ib Hlis, tus nqi ntawm kev nyob tau nce 0.1%, qis dua li 0.3% kev kwv yees, Tus Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Khoom Qhia tau qhia. Ib xyoos dhau ib xyoos, tus nqi nce nce mus rau 7.1% los ntawm 7.7% thaum Lub Kaum Hli, raws li CPI cov ntaub ntawv.
Hnub Wednesday, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tshaj tawm nws qhov kev txiav txim siab zaum kawg ntawm kev nce paj. Ib qho kev nce qib 50-piv yog dav xav tau tom qab plaub jumbo-loj 75-piv taw tes hikes los ntawm central bank.
Nov yog ib txoj hauv kev rau dab tsi ntxiv, raws li Vanguard cov kws tshawb fawb thiab cov kws tshaj lij pom tau.
Kub nce nqi yuav txias
Tus nqi nce nqi thaum xyoo 2022 nce mus txog plaub caug xyoo. Muaj cov cim qhia ntawm kev yooj yim, xws li tus nqi me dua li qhov xav tau nce hauv Lub kaum hli ntuj.
"Raws li peb nqis mus rau xyoo 2023, cov cim qhia ntxov ntawm kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom muag thiab kev xav tau softening tuaj yeem pab sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov rau cov khoom siv thiab ua rau tus nqi qis dua," cov kws sau ntawv tau sau tseg ua ntej hnub Tuesday tus lej CPI.
Tab sis tus nqi thiab kev thov ntawm cov kev pabcuam yuav tiv thaiv kev poob sai, lawv tau sau tseg. Cov cim qhia ntawm kev nce nqi qeeb yog twb tshwm sim hauv tus nqi xauj tsev thiab qiv nyiaj, tab sis lawv yuav siv sij hawm ntev dua kom yooj yim dua li tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv, cov sau ntawv tau hais.
Qhov ntawd hais txog qhov pom los ntawm Tus Tuav Nyiaj Txiag Secretary Janet Yellen, uas tau hais rau hnub Sunday yuav muaj "qis nyiaj txiag ntau,” tsis muaj ib qho kev poob siab uas tsis tau xav txog rau kev lag luam.
Tab sis thaum kub nce nqi yuav txias, nws tseem yuav sov rau qhov kov. Fed hais tias 2% kev nce nqi yog nws lub hom phiaj; Vanguard pom 3% kev nce nqi los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2023.
Kev poob nyiaj ntau heev ntawm daim npav
Raws li "kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv" qeeb kev lag luam thoob plaws ntiaj teb, Fed thiab lwm lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau tawm tsam nrog cov paj laum nce ntxiv rau cov nqi nce. Qhov ntawd "qhov kawg yuav ua tiav, tab sis ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2023," raws li Vanguard tsab ntawv ceeb toom. Vanguard pom muaj 90% txoj hauv kev ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag hauv Tebchaws Meskas thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tom ntej.
Vanguard yog tsis yog ib leeg nyob rau hauv lub recession hu, yog li cov lus nug yog qhov phem npaum li cas yuav daim duab loj?
Hauv Vanguard txoj kev xav, nws tsis yog phem heev. "Cov tsev neeg, kev lag luam, thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag tau zoo dua los daws qhov kev poob qis, xws li kev sib piv nrog xyoo 1970, 1980, 2008, lossis 2020 zoo li tsis raug," cov sau ntawv sau.
Kev poob hauj lwm tej zaum yuav ua ke
Txog tam sim no, tus nqi tsis muaj haujlwm nyob hauv kev lag luam nruj ua haujlwm yog 3.7%, uas tsuas yog me ntsis saum cov qib qis tshaj hauv tsib xyoos. Qhov ntawd sawv tawm tsam cov npe xov xwm ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam uas layoffs nce, tshwj xeeb hauv tech sector.
Thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis, txhua qhov yuav tshwm sim, thaj av xyoo tom ntej, "kev poob haujlwm yuav nce mus txog 5%, qhov keeb kwm qis rau kev lag luam," Vanguard qhov kev xav tau hais. Raws li cov paj laum nce siab, kev poob haujlwm "yuav tsum yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis thiab vaj tsev, uas yog cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws ntawm qhov zero-rate ib puag ncig."
Tus nqi poob haujlwm nce los ntawm 3.7% mus rau 5% nyob ib puag ncig yog "kev txav mus los loj," Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Asmeskas tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Vanguard, tau hais hauv xov xwm hnub Monday ntawm tsab ntawv tshaj tawm. "Tab sis nws yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm kev nce siab dua li piv rau yav dhau los kev lag luam tej zaum."
Pom cov cib fim
Thaum cov paj laum nce, daim ntawv cog lus tus nqi poob qis. Yog li nws nyuaj rau cov ntawv cog lus nrog qis rov qab thiab "qhov mob nyob ze" rau cov tub ua lag luam xyoo no, Vanguard qhov kev xav tau hais.
"Txawm li cas los xij, sab ci ntsa iab ntawm cov nqi siab dua yog cov paj laum ntau dua. Cov no tau ua rau peb qhov kev cia siab rov qab los rau Asmeskas thiab thoob ntiaj teb daim ntawv cog lus kom nce ntau dua ob npaug, "daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau hais.
Vanguard tau hais tias US daim ntawv cog lus xa rov qab tuaj yeem yog 4.1% - 5.1% txhua xyoo nyob rau xyoo tom ntej piv rau nws 1.4% - 2.4% rov qab kwv yees xyoo tas los. Rau Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam, kev kwv yees tuaj yeem yog 4.7% - 6.7% ib xyoos ib zaug, thaum cov nyiaj rov qab hauv kev lag luam tawm tshiab tuaj yeem nyob nruab nrab ntawm 7% thiab 9%.
Hnub Tuesday sawv ntxov, cov khw lag luam yog nce siab ntawm qhov txias dua li qhov xav tau cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi, ua rau muaj kev cia siab ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo Santa Claus rally.
"'Muaj ib txoj kab nyiaj ntawm peb qhov kev pom zoo rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qis qis. Thiab nws yog cov nyiaj ntshiab ntawm cov nyiaj tau los siab dua rau cov tub ua lag luam.'"
Tseem, Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
yog poob ze li 5% xyoo rau hnub tim. S&P 500
SPX
yog tawm 14% nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd thiab rau Nasdaq Composite
nyiaj
poob ntau dua 26%.
Thaum lub lag luam tsoo hauv qab tsis tuaj yeem paub, qhov kev xav tau hais tias - tab sis nws tau sau tseg "kev nqis peev thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau pom meej meej dua li lawv ib xyoos dhau los."
"Muaj ib txoj kab nyiaj ntawm peb qhov kev xav rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qis qis. Thiab nws yog qhov tseeb nyiaj ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntau dua rau cov tub ua lag luam, "said Joseph Davis, Vanguard tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam.
Davis tau hais tias "Peb txhawj xeeb ntev tias qhov chaw qis qis yog ob qho tib si tsis ruaj khov thiab thaum kawg ua se thiab lub hauv paus rau cov neeg txuag thiab cov neeg ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev," Davis hais.
Tab sis txawm tias nrog txhua qhov kev kub ntxhov rau xyoo no, "peb yeej tau pib pom cov nyiaj faib rau cov paj laum siab dua thoob ntiaj teb hauv qhov kev xav tau siab dua uas peb cia siab rau cov tub ua lag luam nyob rau kaum xyoo tom ntej."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguard-sees-a-recession-in-2023-and-one-clear-silver-lining-for-investors-11670882978?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo