Thaum lub sij hawm loj ntawm 2019 thiab 2020, feem ntau ntawm cov daim ntawv cog lus kev lag luam nyob rau sab hnub poob teb chaws muaj qhov tsis zoo nominal yields. Hauv cov ntsiab lus, cov tub ua lag luam tau them nyiaj rau lub peev xwm qiv nyiaj rau tsoomfwv thiab, qee zaum, cov tuam txhab lag luam tsis tau txais cov nyiaj tau los rau cov nyiaj qiv.
Lub caij no, kev nce nqi nce ntxiv thiab nce nqi nrawm tam sim no thawb cov txiaj ntsig nce, thiab 2019 thiab 2020 qhov xwm txheej tau thim rov qab tag nrho.
US tsoom fwv daim ntawv cog lus tam sim no taug kev mus rau qhov siab tshiab, thiab raws li sib npaug twb qis dua rau lub xyoo, lwm qhov qis qis tuaj yeem nyob hauv khw. Lub 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig ntawm US tsoom fwv cov nyiaj tau los yog converging ntawm tshiab highs, thaum lub RSI yog nyob rau hauv ib tug uptrend, thiab cov MACD qhov taw qhia ua a bearish hla kev cai.
Mortgage xav tau plunge
Nrog rau qiv nyiaj refinancing index poob thiab tus naj npawb ntawm cov nqi qiv nyiaj poob qis, cov neeg yuav tsev feem ntau raug tso tseg. Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li tej yam sawv tam sim no, lub yield kis tau los ntawm kev qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj thiab US treasury yog ze rau 2008 thiab 2020 qib, tom qab ntawd qhov kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam tau pom.
Ob peb xyoos dhau los, cov nyiaj khaws cia thiab cov neeg tuav pov hwm tsis muaj cov khoom xa rov qab, thiab tam sim no nrog txawm tias kub raug crushed, lo lus nug ntawm qhov twg los nqis peev nyiaj looms. Qhov teeb meem tau dhau los ua mob hnyav dua hauv Tebchaws Europe, qhov twg ib qho lub zog ntsoog thawb tsoomfwv los nqis tes rau hauv thiab pab txhawb cov neeg siv khoom xav tau lub zog.
Lub culmination ntawm siab
Cov xwm txheej zoo li no thoob plaws ntiaj teb thiab Europe, tshwj xeeb, tau ua tiav hauv tsoomfwv UK ua ib qho teb thaum muaj xwm ceev txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo rau nws cov nyiaj txiag ruaj ntseg, nrog rau cov txiaj ntsig sai sai ntawm tsoomfwv cov nuj nqis ntev.
Tag nrho hauv tag nrho, kev nqis peev scenario zoo li bleak, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum Teb Chaws Asmeskas vaj tse thiab cov khoom vaj khoom tsev nqi nce 319% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws (GDP), thaum keeb kwm, lawv zaum ntawm 200% ntawm GDP. Zoo li muaj kev pom zoo loj zuj zus tias kev lag luam yuav tsum tau txo qis ntxiv kom ncav cuag tus nqi ncaj ncees thiab nyiam kev nqis peev tshiab.
Disclaimer: Cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub xaib no yuav tsum tsis txhob suav hais tias yog cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev. Kev nqis peev yog speculative. Thaum kev nqis peev, koj cov peev nyiaj muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finbold.com/us-government-bonds-climb-to-new-highs-putting-pressure-on-equities/