Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve (Fed) tau hais lus nruj thiab ua kev nruj kev tsiv rau kev nce nqi nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tiv thaiv ib qho lub caij txom nyem. Thaum lub sijhawm Covid lockdowns, kev txhawb nqa tau coj mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam, tab sis tam sim no cov nyiaj tau los raug tshem tawm, kev lag luam tau nruj.
Meanwhile, raws li lub txhab nyiaj qhov kev ntsuas qhov tseeb, UBS bank (SWX: UBSG) cov kws tshuaj ntsuam pom ib qho kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev thim rov qab, nce qhov tshwm sim tam sim no mus rau 60%. Hauv kev sib piv, tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Pierre Lafourcade thiab nws pab neeg ntawm UBS tau pom 40% kev poob qis hauv lub Rau Hli.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov kev ntsuas no tau ua txhua hli, sib sau ua ke ntawm US cov nyiaj txiag yield curve, hard macro, thiab credit data. Cov kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag kuj tau piav qhia tias kev lag luam yog nyob rau theem 'contractionary', tab sis lawv tseem muaj kev cia siab tias kev lag luam tag nrho yuav tsis tshwm sim tam sim no.
"Qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev nyob rau hauv ib theem kev cog lus yog keeb kwm siab heev - 94% thaum Lub Xya Hli vs. 35% hauv lub Plaub Hlis - tab sis nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv tam sim no, pab pawg neeg Asmeskas cov kev kwv yees yog tias qhov kev cog lus tsis morph mus rau hauv kev lag luam tag nrho. Cov kev koom tes ntawm cov khoom siv rau qhov tseem ceeb nyob rau ob peb lub hlis dhau los yog sib xyaw hauv Lub Xya Hli, cov ntaub ntawv kev ua haujlwm thiab vaj tsev tau rub qhov cuam tshuam, tab sis kev tsim khoom lag luam thiab kev siv nyiaj hauv tsev tau tuav nws. "
Ua si tiv thaiv
Bank of America (NYSE): BAC) Cov neeg tau txais kev nyab xeeb yog cov muag khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv ob peb ntu dhau los, raws li cov ntaub ntawv muab los ntawm BofA.
Ntau qhov kev tawm mus tau pom los ntawm cov kev lag luam kev sib tw, raws li cov tub ua lag luam ntshai tsam qhov chaw nyuaj vim Fed tawm tsam kev nce nqi, thaum cov kev tiv thaiv tau pom ntau qhov kev nkag mus, uas, raws li cov ntaub ntawv, tsuas yog tshwm sim thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2022.
Tsis tas li ntawd, lwm qhov overhang saum cov kev lag luam tuaj yeem yog cov vaj tsev nyob, qhov chaw muag khoom qeeb qeeb heev. Kev nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj ua rau cov khoom hnyav dua rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev, lub sijhawm no, kev nce nqi nce mus rau qib siab keeb kwm, ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau ntxiv rau cov neeg yuav khoom tshiab hauv tsev.
Tag nrho hauv tag nrho, kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau nce zuj zus nyob rau ib lub lim tiam raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tau tshwm sim thiab qhia txog kev poob qis thoob plaws ntau qhov chaw, thaum cov nyiaj tiv thaiv. pab in luv txoj hauj lwm.
Disclaimer: Cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub xaib no yuav tsum tsis txhob suav hais tias yog cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev. Kev nqis peev yog speculative. Thaum kev nqis peev, koj cov peev nyiaj muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finbold.com/ubs-warns-the-us-now-faces-a-60-chance-of-sinking-into-a-recession/