Lub teeb liab kev tshaj lij uas tau hais txog qhov hloov pauv yav dhau los rau Asmeskas kev lag luam Tshuag tau tuaj txog thawj zaug hauv ze li peb xyoos, raws li cov ntaub ntawv muab los ntawm nws tus tsim.
Tab sis qee tus ntawm Wall Street xav tias nws yuav tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab li nws ib zaug.
Qhov taw qhia kev, uas yog lub npe hu ua qhov dav-thrust qhov taw qhia, tau tshwm sim thaum Lub Ib Hlis 12 thawj zaug txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 3, 2020. Qhov taw qhia tau tsim los ntawm tus kws tshuaj xyuas so haujlwm Walter Deemer hauv 1973 thaum nws ua haujlwm ntawm Putnam Investments. Ib tus neeg sawv cev rau lub tuam txhab tau lees paub tias Deemer ua haujlwm nyob rau ntawm 1970 thiab 1980.
NED Davis Kev Tshawb Fawb
Nws tuaj txog tau ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab heev ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, raws li MarketWatch kev xam phaj nrog ntau tus kws tshaj lij.
Qhov taw qhia dav-thrust
Qhov taw qhia dav-thrust yog ua raws li cov qauv yooj yim: cov tswv yim tseem ceeb yog qhov piv ntawm New York Tshuag Txauv cov khoom lag luam thiab lwm yam kev nyab xeeb uas tau nce siab dhau ntawm 10 kev sib pauv pauv piv nrog cov uas tsis kam.
Thaum qhov piv txwv nce siab tshaj 1.97, qhov taw qhia tau tshwm sim, Deemer tau hais. Qhov no tau tshwm sim tsuas yog tsis tshua muaj nyob rau hauv lub xyoo txij li thaum nws tsim, thiab feem ntau nws tau tuaj txog raws li lub khw muag nyuj tshiab tau pib.
Raws li qhov dav-thrust qhov taw qhia tau loj hlob nyob rau hauv muaj koob meej, lwm tus tau tsim lawv tus kheej hloov kho versions ntawm nws, uas, zoo li tus thawj, purport kom muab cov tub ua lag luam saib cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws ntxiv rau yuav ua li cas ib tug neeg cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam rau kev ua lag luam dav dav.
Qee qhov kev hloov pauv tsuas yog tsom mus rau qhov ua ntej-txo qhov piv ntawm cov khoom lag luam sib pauv ntawm NYSE, thaum tus thawj siv cov kev ntsuas dav uas suav nrog tsis yog cov khoom lag luam nkaus xwb tab sis nyiam tshaj tawm, cov nyiaj pauv pauv thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam ntawm kev sib pauv, Deemer tau hais.
'Trust the thrust'?
Qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev ncaj ncees ntseeg tias qhov ntsuas qhov dav-thrust thiab lwm yam kev ntsuas thaum ntxov ntawm kev txhim kho kev lag luam dav tau dhau los ua tsis tshua muaj txiaj ntsig nyob rau xyoo tas los no, ib feem vim tias ntau ntawm lawv tau tshwm sim ntau zaus.
Ed Clissold, tus thawj coj Asmeskas tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Ned Davis Research, tau hais tias ntau qhov kev ntsuas zoo sib xws uas tswj hwm los ntawm nws lub tuam txhab tau tshwm sim thaum lub xyoo dhau los kev lag luam muaj kev kub ntxhov, tsa cov lus nug txog lawv cov kev siv txuas ntxiv.
"Lub Phab Ntsa Street cliché tau siv los ua 'kev ntseeg siab' vim tias lawv yuav yog thawj cov cim qhia tias lub khw muag nyuj tshiab tab tom pib," Clissold tau hais hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj.
"Tab sis vim tias cov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tau ua ntau zaus, tam sim no peb hais tias 'kev ntseeg tab sis txheeb xyuas.' Thiab qhov kev txheeb xyuas los ntawm cov ntsuas qhov dav nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm. "
Tshwj xeeb, Clissold tau hais tias nws xav pom qhov loj dua ntawm cov khoom lag luam ua lag luam saum toj no lawv 50- thiab 200-hnub hloov qhov nruab nrab ua ntej lees paub tias qhov kev hloov pauv mus tas li hauv kev ua lag luam lub siab xav tuaj txog.
Mixed signals
Lwm qhov kev ntsuas nrov raws li NYSE cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej-txo qis tshwm sim qhia tias cov khoom lag luam yuav yog me ntsis nplua nujRaws li Katie Stockton, kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Fairlead Strategies.
Piv txwv li, McClellan Oscillator, lwm lub cuab yeej nrov rau kev tshuaj ntsuam xyuas uas tseem yog raws li NYSE cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej-txo qis, tau mus txog qib raws li xyoo tas los cov khoom lag luam ze tshaj plaws, Stockton tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Wednesday. Qhov no qhia tias S&P 500 tau dhau los ua "overbought."
Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam poob rau hnub thib ob ua ke rau hnub Wednesday thaum kaw lawv qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txhua hnub ntawm lub xyoo txog tam sim no. S&P 500
SPX,
poob los ntawm 1.6% kom tiav qhov kev sib kho ntawm 3,928.86, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv.
Lub Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
poob los ntawm 1.2% rau kwv yees li 10,957.01, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
poob los ntawm 1.8% rau 33,296.96.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-flash-rare-bull-market-signal-for-first-time-in-nearly-3-years-but-some-have-their-doubts- 11674079952?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo