Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov roj tsuas yog poob qis dua $ 100 ib chim - Dab tsi uas hais txog kev poob nyiaj txiag kev ntshai thiab cov khoom siv roj nruj

"Qhov kev xav loj heev ntawm kev xav tau dab neeg puas tsuaj" ua rau hnub Tuesday "kev poob zoo heev," Manish Raj, tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag ntawm Velandera Energy Partners, hais rau MarketWatch.

WTI roj yav tom ntej rau hnub Tuesday poob qis dua qhov tseem ceeb $ 100 cim, nrog rau pem hauv ntej-lub hli daim ntawv cog lus Lub yim hli ntuj
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tapping tus nqi qis ntawm $ 97.43 ib chim ntawm New York Mercantile Exchange, qhov qis tshaj plaws intraday theem txij li lub Plaub Hlis, FactSet cov ntaub ntawv qhia. Hnub Tuesday, nws tau nqis los ntawm $ 99.50, nqis $ 8.93, lossis 8.2%.

Tus nqi poob yog "yuav tsum tau ua raws li kev lag luam rov qab los tom qab kev ntshai ntawm kev rau txim muab txoj hauv kev rau qhov tseeb ntawm Lavxias kev muag khoom rau cov neeg yuav khoom tshiab hauv Asia, thiab qhov cuam tshuam ntawm tus nqi siab ntawm kev thov thiab kev lag luam tau pom tseeb," said Michael Lynch, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Strategic Energy & Economic Research.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws tsis cia siab tias yuav pom WTI tus nqi qis dua $ 90 hauv ob peb lub hlis tom ntej - "tshwj tsis yog tias cov khoom muaj pov thawj muaj zog los ntawm Libya, Iran thiab / lossis Venezuela, uas muaj peev xwm ua tau tab sis muaj kev cia siab me ntsis ntawm kev nce siab ntawm cov nqi txhua lub sijhawm sai sai. ”

Tus nqi pheej yig?

WTI qhov poob rau hnub Tuesday tau kos ze li ntawm 20% poob los ntawm qhov siab tshaj $ 123 ib chim nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli.

Kev ua lag luam tab tom mus txog thaj chaw dais, nrog rau hnub kev sib hais haum tsuas yog ntau dua 19.5% qis dua qhov kev sib hais tsis ntev los no siab ntawm $ 123.70 los ntawm Lub Peb Hlis 8. Yuav kom nyob hauv lub lag luam dais, WTI roj yuav tsum tau txiav txim siab ntawm lossis qis dua $ 98.96 los cim 20% los yog ntau dua poob los ntawm qhov siab tsis ntev los no, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.

Tseem, Velandera's Raj ntseeg tias cov nqi roj tau "poob sai heev, sai sai, tsim kom muaj lub sijhawm yuav khoom tshwj xeeb rau cov tub lag luam roj," raws li "cov duab muab khoom zoo li tsis zoo, thiab muaj kev puas tsuaj loj tshaj plaws."

Raj taw qhia qhov ntawd US roj av nqi siab xyoo no, uas ntaus qib siab dua $ 5 ib nkas loos ntawm cov khw muag khoom qib, "tsis tau muab tso rau hauv cov neeg tsav tsheb hauv Asmeskas kev nqhis dej" thiab yav dhau los, kev lag luam me me tau "tsis pom cov khoom xav tau txo."

Velandera qhov kev tshuaj xyuas, lub sijhawm no, qhia tau hais tias cov roj-kev xav tau sib npaug tsuas yog zuj zus zuj zus txhua lub hlis xyoo no, thiab cov khoom siv tau poob qis thaum qhov kev thov tau nce ntxiv, Raj hais. "Ironically, kev ua lag luam tsuas yog nruj dua, nrog cov xov xwm phem ntxiv los ntawm Libya thiab Norway."

Kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm nom tswv tau ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv Libyan roj ntau lawm, thaum Norway tab tom cuam tshuam nrog tawm tsam ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm roj thiab cov khoom siv roj.

Lub koom haum International Energy Agency, hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm txhua hli tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Rau Hli, tau hais tias nws xav tau muab kev loj hlob mus lag tom qab xav tau xyoo tom ntej, thawb kev ua lag luam mus rau 500,000 barrels-ib-hnub tsis txaus.

Kev txom nyem kev txhawj xeeb

Lub caij no, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Citigroup tau hais tias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej kev lag luam poob qis, cov qauv ntsuas thoob ntiaj teb. Brent crude nqi tuaj yeem poob mus txog $ 65 ib chim los ntawm lub xyoo kawg, thiab $ 45 los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2023, "tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam los ntawm OPEC + thiab kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam roj luv luv."

Lub caij nplooj zeeg mus rau $ 65 yuav cim qhov poob loj heev los ntawm qib tam sim no, nrog rau lub Cuaj Hlis Brent crude
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Kev daws teeb meem ntawm $ 102.77 ib chim ntawm ICE Futures Europe, nqis $ 10.73, lossis ze li 9.5% rau hnub Tuesday.

"Dab tsi zoo li qhov tseeb yog tias kev ua lag luam yog thaum kawg tus nqi hauv kev pheej hmoo poob nyiaj txiag" thiab cov tub lag luam tau txo txoj haujlwm ntev, hais tias James Williams, tus kws lag luam hluav taws xob ntawm WTRG Economics.

Nws tau taw qhia tias tsis ntev los no cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Energy Information Administration qhia tau tias qhov nruab nrab plaub lub lis piam rau implied xav tau roj av thiab distillates poob 2% thiab 7.4%, feem.

Williams tau hais tias "Kuv xav tias kev lag luam poob qis mus txog qhov tseeb, thiab kev lag luam poob qis ib txwm ua rau tus nqi qis," Williams hais.