Cov thawv ntim khoom thauj tau pom ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg hauv Chaw nres nkoj Oakland raws li tus neeg tsav tsheb ywj pheej txuas ntxiv tawm tsam California txoj cai tshiab hu ua AB5, hauv Oakland, California, Lub Xya Hli 21, 2022.
Carlos Barria | Xov Xwm Reuters
Economists tau kwv yees qhov kev lag luam nyuam qhuav loj hlob hauv lub quarter thib ob, thiab qee qhov xav tias nws tau cog lus tiag tiag.
Cov kev kwv yees qhia tias kev lag luam yuav loj hlob los ntawm ob peb feem kaum ntawm ib feem pua. Goldman Sachs cia siab tias yuav nce 1%, thaum Moody's Analytics pom qhov poob 1%. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm GDP yuav tshaj tawm thaum 8:30 sawv ntxov ET Thursday.
Kev kwv yees kev loj hlob qeeb ua raws li 1.6% poob hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg. Tab sis muaj ntau qhov kev kwv yees rau kev lag luam poob qis, suav nrog Atlanta Fed's GDP Tam sim no tracker, uas muaj qhov tsis zoo 1.2% rau lub quarter thib ob.
Qhov ntawd yuav ua rau nws thib ob negative GDP report ina row, ib qho ntawm cov cim qhia tias kev lag luam nyob hauv kev lag luam poob qis. Txawm li cas los xij, cov kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag tau ceev faj los qhia tias kev ua lag luam muaj zog thiab lwm yam ua rau kev poob nyiaj txiag tsis zoo rau tam sim no. Lawv kuj tseem ceeb rau National Bureau of Economic Research, tus thawj coj ntawm kev hu xovtooj hu xovtooj, kuj tsis xav tias yuav tshaj tawm ib qho tam sim no.
Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell Wednesday tau hais tias nws tsis ntseeg kev lag luam yog nyob rau hauv ib tug recession.
“Cia li hais tias nws tsis zoo. Cov xov xwm nyob txhua qhov chaw yuav yog 'kev poob nyiaj txiag.' Qhov ntawd tsis yog li cas kev lag luam xav txog nws, tab sis koj yuav pom cov neeg qw 'kev poob nyiaj txiag', "said Michael Schumacher, tus thawj coj ntawm macro zoo ntawm Wells Fargo. “Tom qab ntawd yuav muaj kev sib cav txog nws. … Nws yuav muaj teeb meem ntau dua rau hom kev nom kev tswv tshaj li kev ua lag luam. "
Qee tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag tau tsa lawv cov kev kwv yees hnub Wednesday, ua ntej ntawm daim ntawv tshaj tawm peb lub hlis thib ob, tom qab daim ntawv tshaj tawm cov khoom siv ruaj khov txhua hli tau zoo dua qhov kev xav tau, thiab cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej kev lag luam pom tias kev lag luam sib txawv tau nqaim heev. Cov khoom ruaj khov tau nce 1.9% nyob rau lub Rau Hli tom qab me me 0.8% nce hauv lub Tsib Hlis.
Goldman Sachs economists tau txhawb nqa lawv cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev kwv yees rau 1% ntawm 0.4% tom qab cov ntaub ntawv.
Mark Zandi, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Moody's Analytics, tau hais tias tam sim no nws muaj kev kwv yees ntawm qhov tsis zoo 1%; ua ntej cov ntaub ntawv nws yog qhov tsis zoo 1.3%. Tab sis nws, ib yam nkaus, tsis ntseeg tus lej tsis zoo, thaum ua ke nrog thawj peb lub hlis twg kev cog lus, yuav qhia txog kev lag luam poob qis.
"Kuv xav tias nws nyuaj rau pom kev poob qis thaum peb tsim ntau txoj haujlwm. Muaj cov ntaub ntawv tsis tau ua tiav, "nws hais, ceeb toom tias txoj haujlwm loj hlob tau kwv yees li 500,000 ib hlis. "Nws tsis ua raws li lub tswv yim tias kev lag luam nyob hauv kev lag luam poob qis. Nws yog txhua qhov kev lag luam thiab hauv txhua lub ces kaum ntawm lub teb chaws uas muaj kev loj hlob ntawm cov hauj lwm zoo. Nws tsuas yog tsis yog kev poob nyiaj txiag xwb. "
cov kev lag luam tau ntxiv 372,000 txoj haujlwm ntxiv rau lub Rau Hli.
Zandi tau sau tseg tias cov lej loj hlob tsis zoo yuav raug kho dua, thiab qhov ua rau muaj kev sib kis tsis tau ntev. Qhov kev poob qis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ib feem ntawm qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Covid ntawm kev lag luam, uas ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam thiab cov teeb meem khoom muag.
"Qhov tsis muaj zog hauv Q1, Q2 GDP mus rau kev lag luam thiab cov khoom muag feem ntau, thiab cov no yog ib ntus hauv GDP," nws hais. "Lawv viav vias tus lej GDP nyob ib ncig ntawm peb lub hlis twg rau peb lub hlis twg, tab sis lawv tsis tas li qhov chaw loj hlob lossis qhov hnyav ntawm kev loj hlob."
Kev lag luam rho tawm 3.2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus los ntawm GDP hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, tab sis nws yuav tsum yog qhov zoo rau lub quarter thib ob, Zandi ntxiv.
"Peb tau txais cov khoom lag luam loj zoo nkauj hauv Q1. … Kuv xav tias qhov no mus rau kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam cuam tshuam txog kev sib kis thiab lub sijhawm ntawm cov khoom, ”nws hais. "Cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab hauv Q1. … Peb yuav pom qee cov khoom lag luam tsub zuj zuj hauv Q2 tab sis tsis loj npaum li cov khoom muag nce. Yog li ntawd, qhov ntawd yog qhov rub ntawm GDP. "
JP Morgan cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag tau tsa lawv cov kev kwv yees loj hlob los ntawm 0.7% mus rau 1.4% tom qab hnub Wednesday kev lag luam tawm.
"Qhov kev xav tsis thoob tseem ceeb tshaj plaws tau khi rau kev lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam, vim tias Lub Rau Hli kev lag luam tsis txaus tau nqaim dua li peb tau xav txog thiab lub Rau Hli nominal cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv tau siab dua qhov kev cia siab," JP Morgan kws lag luam tau sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv.
Cov khoom lag luam nominal kev lag luam poob qis rau $ 98.2 nphom hauv Lub Rau Hli los ntawm $ 104 nphom hauv lub Tsib Hlis, thiab kev xa tawm tau nce 2.5% raws li kev xa khoom poob 0.5%. Cov ntaub ntawv luam tawm tsis tiav, vim nws tsis suav nrog cov kev pabcuam, tab sis JP Morgan cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias tam sim no lawv xav tias yuav txhim kho kev lag luam tsis txaus txhais tau tias muaj kev loj hlob ntxiv.
"Peb xav tias cov ntaub ntawv hauv tes yog qhov qhia tau hais tias qhov kev lag luam tiag tiag tau nqaim pom hauv 2Q [uas tam sim no peb xav tias ntxiv 1.6%-pts rau 2Q tiag tiag GDP kev loj hlob]," lawv tau sau tseg.
Kevin Cummins, tus thawj coj ntawm US tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag ntawm NatWest Markets, tau hais tias cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam txhawb nqa nws txoj kev xav tias kev lag luam loj hlob ntawm 1.5% hauv peb lub hlis twg.
Nws tau hais tias "Nws tsis yog hais tias koj tsis tuaj yeem tau txais daim ntawv tsis zoo tab sis nws yuav tsawg dua," nws hais. Cummins kuj tau hais txog ob lub quarters tsis zoo rov qab los tsis tau txhais hais tias kev lag luam yog nyob rau hauv kev lag luam.
"Yog tias peb tau txais lwm lub quarter tsis zoo rau Q2 lawv hu nws tias kev lag luam kev lag luam," Cummins hais. "Qhov teeb meem nrog qhov ntawd yog nws tsis yog li cas NBER saib ntawm yam. … Lawv saib cov ntaub ntawv txhua hli. Lawv yuav saib kev ua haujlwm. Lawv yuav saib cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tus kheej, kev siv, kev tsim khoom lag luam, tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv txhua hli thiab txiav txim siab seb kev lag luam puas nyob hauv kev sib cog lus lossis nthuav dav. "
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/us-economy-probably-barely-grew-last-quarter-and-may-have-contracted.html