Cov tsheb thauj khoom ntawm qhov nkag mus rau Chaw Nres Nkoj Oakland hauv Oakland, California, Asmeskas, hnub Thursday, Lub Xya Hli 14, 2022. Cov tsheb thauj khoom uas ua haujlwm rau qee qhov chaw nres nkoj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov chaw nres nkoj uas muaj neeg coob tshaj plaws tau tawm tsam kev tawm tsam raws li cov kev cai lij choj hauv xeev uas hloov lawv txoj haujlwm ua haujlwm pib mus rau hauv cuam tshuam, tsim kom muaj lwm qhov choke point hauv kev ntxhov siab hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam.
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Cov neeg tsav tsheb thauj neeg Asmeskas xav tias yuav tswj hwm tus nqi hluav taws xob txawm tias cov khoom muag muag nyob rau ib nrab xyoo 2022 raws li cov khw muag khoom, cov chaw tsim khoom thiab cov neeg siv khoom hloov kho rau kev cuam tshuam los ntawm Covid lockdowns, Russia-Ukraine tsov rog thiab kev nce nqi.
Kev tshawb fawb tsis ntev los no ntawm cov neeg siv khoom los ntawm SAIA, lub tsheb thauj khoom rau Starbucks, Home Depot thiab Lowe's, pom tias feem ntau ntawm cov tuam txhab tseem ua haujlwm los txheeb xyuas lawv cov kauj ruam tom ntej thiab qhov "tshiab li qub" yog dab tsi rau lawv cov lag luam, raws li CEO Fritz Holzgrefe.
Holzgrefe hais rau CNBC tias "Lawv tau hais ntau ntau txog kev txuas ntxiv txhim kho cov khoom lag luam, ua kom lawv cov saw hlau txuas ntxiv los ntawm qhov sib npaug ntawm lub xyoo, txawm tias thawj feem ntawm xyoo tom ntej," Holzgrefe hais rau CNBC. "Tej zaum tej yam tau qeeb me ntsis, tab sis cov neeg siv khoom tseem txuas ntxiv rov txheeb xyuas lawv txoj haujlwm saw hlau kom ua tau zoo dua kom ua tiav lawv cov hom phiaj hauv lawv cov lag luam."
Cov saw hlau tau txhim kho thiab dhau los ua qhov phem tshaj plaws, raws li Derek Leathers, CEO ntawm Werner Enterprise, uas txav freight rau Amazon, Walmart thiab Target. Tab sis, nws tau ceeb toom, lub taub hau rau cov tsheb thauj khoom yuav khaws cov nqi zoo tshaj qhov kev kis tus kabmob kis mus rau lwm qhov ntawm 2022.
“Koj yuav pom cov nqi tuav rau lub xyoo tas los. Peb tus nqi nce yog tiag tiag. Peb cov neeg siv khoom nkag siab qhov ntawd, "Leathers hais. "Peb tab tom tham loj loj ua tiav cov hom lag luam zoo li [Amazon thiab Walmart] thiab ntau lwm tus uas paub txog kev cia siab rau lawv cov neeg nqa khoom yog qhov kev sib tw kom zoo dua. Lawv xav tau kev thauj mus los zoo, raws sijhawm, txhua lub sijhawm muaj kev nyab xeeb. Ua li ntawd lawv ua haujlwm nrog cov neeg nqa khoom loj loj. "
Trucking stocks tau qee qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Xya Hli, thaum S&P 500 tau nce ntau dua 7% lub hlis no. SAIB thiab ArcBest yog nce 20%, thaum Werner qhauj, Knight Swift thiab JB Hunt tau nce ntau dua 10%.
Nyuam qhuav pib lub xyoo no muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog "freight recession" vim hais tias ntawm poob nqi nyob rau hauv thiaj li hu ua chaw ua lag luam rau tsheb thauj khoom. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tsis ntev los no los ntawm Evercore ISI, cov nqi no tau qis dua 11% xyoo dhau los. Lub khw muag khoom muab kev thauj mus los raws li xav tau, thiab tus nqi sib txawv raws li cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau.
Kev thauj mus los ntawm qhov chaw pom muaj kev loj hlob ntawm qhov siab ntawm kev kis thoob qhov txhia chaw raws li cov tuam txhab tau hloov kho rau cov khoom lag luam snarled thiab txaus siab them cov nqi keeb kwm thauj khoom thaum lub sij hawm e-commerce boom. Txawm li cas los xij, feem ntau ntawm cov tsheb thauj khoom tseem ua tiav los ntawm kev cog lus nrog cov neeg nqa khoom thiab lawv cov neeg siv khoom zoo li cov khw muag khoom loj.
Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv peb ntu loj ntawm kev thauj khoom ua rau feem ntau ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev cog lus - Knight Swift (tag nrho cov tsheb thauj khoom), FedEx (tsawg dua li cov tsheb thauj khoom) thiab JB Hunt (khoom thauj khoom) - tau tshaj tawm tus lej ob tus lej nce hauv lawv cov nyiaj tau los tsis ntev los no.
“Peb ntseeg tias cov nqi cog lus yuav tuav. Peb ntseeg tias cov nqi cog lus yuav nyob ntawm qhov chaw uas yuav tso cai rau cov tuam txhab thauj khoom tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo heev. " Deustche Bank tus kws tshuaj xyuas kev thauj mus los Amit Mehrotra hais rau CNBC.
Nws kuj tseem cia siab tias qhov kev thov yuav qis dua me ntsis tab sis ruaj khov rau qhov seem ntawm 2022. "Kuv xav tias cov teeb meem cov khoom muag uas cov khw muag khoom loj xws li Walmart thiab Target tau tshaj tawm yog ntau qhov kev xav ntawm kev hloov pauv cov qauv, ntau dua li kev tshem tawm ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tseem ceeb, ” Mehrotra hais.
Tus thawj coj ntawm ib lub tuam txhab thauj khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv Tebchaws Meskas tseem saib xyuas cov neeg siv khoom siv.
"Qhov tseeb tias kev ua lag luam tsheb thauj khoom sib txawv niaj hnub no dua li 12 lub hlis dhau los," CH Robinson CEO Bob Biesterfield hais rau CNBC's "Squawk ntawm Txoj Kev" rau hnub Tuesday.
Nws hais ntxiv tias cov khw muag khoom, vaj tse thiab kev tsim khoom yog cov tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom thauj. Manufacturing tau tuav qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm peb, nws hais ntxiv. Cov khw muag khoom pom qhov ntim nce hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg thiab qhov poob qis hauv ob, Biesterfield tau hais.
Qhov tshwm sim ntawm West Coast chaw nres nkoj kev sib tham ua haujlwm yog lwm lo lus nug loj rau kev lag luam tsheb thauj khoom.
Daim ntawv cog lus ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv koomhaum thiab cov chaw nres nkoj uas tuav txog li 45% ntawm Asmeskas cov khoom xa tuaj tau tas sijhawm Lub Xya Hli 1, tab sis kev ua haujlwm tau txuas ntxiv thaum sib tham tsis tu ncua. Ob tog tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv pom zoo rau cov txiaj ntsig kev noj qab haus huv thaum lawv txuas ntxiv ua haujlwm ntawm kev sib cog lus them nyiaj, automation thiab lwm cov ntsiab lus. Muaj kev nres, qeeb lossis cuam tshuam thaum peb qhov kev sib tham zaum kawg - hauv 2002, 2008 thiab 2014 - ua ntej muaj kev sib tham, raws li US Chamber of Commerce.
Holzgrefe, SAIA CEO, tau hais tias qhov kev hem thawj ntawm kev cuam tshuam tau ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv hauv cov khoom siv.
"Qhov peb tau pom yog peb cov neeg siv khoom lwm qhov chaw nres nkoj lossis tau hloov mus rau lwm qhov hauv lub tebchaws." Holzgrefe hais tias. "Raws li qhov chaw nres nkoj ntawm LA dhau los ua teeb meem dua, peb xav tias peb tuaj yeem hloov kho raws li peb cov neeg siv khoom xav tau. Nws tsuas yog kim dua los ua haujlwm tau zoo. "
"Kev sib tham LA-Long Beach tuaj yeem yog lub sijhawm cuam tshuam." hais tias Leathers, Werner Enterprise CEO. "Muaj qee qhov kev thov nyob hauv Suav teb uas tseem yuav tsum tau txav mus los yog tias lawv tawm ntawm Covid kaw, thiab qhov ntawd tuaj yeem tsim qee qhov kev sib tsoo thiab qee qhov cuam tshuam. Tseem tseem tsis tau pom muaj txiaj ntsig rau cov neeg siv khoom nrog kev cuam tshuam tsis tu ncua ntawm kev nce nqi. "
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/trucking-ceos-expect-high-prices-demand-in-second-half-of-2022.html