(Bloomberg) - Lub txhab nyiaj khiav haujlwm. Stiffening Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve daws tawm tsam kev nce nqi. Kev pheej hmoo credit, thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag. Cov tub lag luam tau nqus ntau qhov kev poob siab ob peb hnub dhau los. Khawb lawv tag nrho ib zaug yuav ua tsis tau.
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Rau cov tub lag luam harried, qhov teeb meem yog tias ib qho kev hem thawj rov qab, lwm qhov yuav siv nws qhov chaw. Kev lag luam kub dhau - lossis muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev raug mob los ntawm kev ntxhov siab nyiaj txiag. Muaj ib hnub daim ntawv cog lus yields surges li inflation anxiety spirals, tom ntej no lawv plummet raws li cov travails ntawm qiv ntxias txhua leej txhua tus Fed yuav nqis rov qab.
Qhov tshwm sim tau nce mus txawv tebchaws thoob plaws lub spectrum ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam chav kawm, viav vias uas tej zaum yuav pheej mus rau lwm cov xov xwm-packed stretch.
Jim Bianco ntawm Bianco Research hais tias "Lub lim tiam tom ntej tsis tuaj yeem ua haujlwm rau," "Dab tsi cov khoom lag luam xav tau yog tsis muaj kev sib kis thiab Fed kom thim rov qab taug kev. Lawv yuav tau txais ib lossis lwm qhov, tsis yog ob leeg. "
Nyob rau hauv ib lub lim tiam uas muaj qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas lub txhab nyiaj tsis ua hauj lwm hauv ntau tshaj kaum xyoo thiab cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua ib qho hauv tsib lub hlis, qhov xwm txheej feem ntau tuaj yeem nyob hauv Cov Nyiaj Txiag, qhov twg cov txiaj ntsig tau pom lawv qhov loj tshaj ob hnub poob txij li muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag. Rate traumas zoo li ntawd muaj ib tug cwj pwm ntawm yuam speculative nyiaj rau hauv evasive kev txiav txim, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev lag luam uas Fed angst ua luv luv-bonds ib tug nrov kev lag luam.
Tshaj li qhov cuam tshuam rau cov neeg kwv yees, kev hloov pauv yav dhau los hauv Cov Nyiaj Txiag ntawm qhov ntsuas ntawm hnub Thursday thiab Friday tuav cov teeb meem kev txhawj xeeb rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev ntoo khaub lig thiab Asmeskas kev lag luam. Cov ntaub ntawv crunched los ntawm Bespoke Investment Group qhia tias nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm 50 xyoo ntawm keeb kwm, ob-xyoos Treasury yields tau tshaj tawm ob hnub poob ntawm 45 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus 79 zaug. Nrog rau ob qhov kev zam, hauv 1987 thiab 1989, tag nrho cov ntu ntawd yog thaum lub sijhawm lossis nyob rau hauv rau lub hlis ntawm US kev lag luam.
Thaum tsuas yog lub sijhawm yuav qhia yog tias qhov tsis ua tiav ntawm SVB Financial Group foretells pervasive risk to the financial system, investor not wait around for clarity. S&P 500 swb 4.6% dhau tsib zaug, feem ntau txij lub Cuaj Hli. Cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv qhov ntsuas tau poob 8.5%.
Qhov kev ntxhov siab hauv cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yuav muaj ntau dua li cov lej saum npoo qhia. Ib daim ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm Goldman Sachs trading rooj hais tias ntawm qhov ntsuas ntawm 1 txog 10, Thursday thiab Friday yog "8" raws li cov neeg siv khoom franticness. Cov neeg siv khoom lag luam skewed bearishly, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov tsev txhab nyiaj, nrog rau cov nyiaj hedge thiab cov thawj tswj hwm cov nyiaj ib txwm txiav cov pab pawg thaum SVB txoj kev nyuaj siab. Cov yav tas los yog cov muag muag ntawm cov nyiaj txiag cov khoom lag luam rau cuaj lub lis piam ncaj.
Ntawm Morgan Stanley, "kev lag luam kev lag luam poob qis tau dav dav" ntawm cov neeg siv khoom cuam tshuam rau Fed Chair Jerome Powell cov lus tshaj tawm hawkish Tuesday thiab Wednesday, raws li daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev lag luam. Cov nyiaj luv luv luv ntawm tag nrho cov nqis rov qab los ntawm kev ua lag luam thaum cov neeg lag luam muag muag muag txog $ 1.6 billion ntawm cov khoom lag luam.
Txawm hais tias tag nrho cov ntsiab lus mus rau qhov tsis muaj zog dua, kev kwv yees tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm lub khw lag luam muaj peev xwm ua rau nws tus kheej yog qhov yuam kev hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los. Bloomberg tus kws sau xov xwm Aaron Brown tau sau tseg lub lim tiam dhau los hais tias kev nqis peev ib puag ncig xws li niaj hnub no - thaum cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau siab thiab cov khoom lag luam tau poob 10% - tau zoo ib txwm daws qhov kev pom zoo ntawm cov bulls hauv cov ntaub ntawv rov qab ntau dua ib puas xyoo. Nws yog pov thawj rau lub lag luam propensity mus nce.
Tseem, nrog kev nyeem ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom lag luam nyiaj txiag hnub Tuesday thiab Fed lub rooj sib tham Lub Peb Hlis 21-22, ua cov thawj koom ruam loj ntawm cov khoom lag luam lossis lwm yam khoom muaj nqis pheej hmoo yuav siv sij hawm ntau zog. Kev pheej hmoo deb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau rov ua dua tshiab hnub Saturday nrog ib qho ntawm cov nyiaj ruaj khov loj tshaj plaws hauv lub ntiaj teb crypto ua lag luam zoo hauv qab nws ib-duas peg.
Peter Mallouk, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Creative Planning tau hais tias "Yog tias koj muaj kev twv nrog hnub tas sij hawm ntawm lawv tau npaj kom tau crushed ntxiv," said Peter Mallouk, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Creative Planning. "Qhov no yog tus nqi uas koj them rau kev kwv yees thiab yog qhov peb tau pom ntawm no. Peb tab tom yuav txuas ntxiv mus pom cov kws tshaj lij txuas ntxiv raug rau txim sai. "
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